Education or Food ? What should become a fundamental right ? Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted January 8, 2010 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

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India’s constitution was based on constitutions of foreign countries —————————No wonder !!

 The six fundamental rights enshrined in our CONSTITUTION are:

1. Right to equality

2. Right to freedom

3. Right against exploitation

4. Right to freedom of religion

 5. Cultural and educational rights

6. Right to constitutional remedies

The constitution makers of India borrowed various ideas from constitution of various countries . No wonder Food , Clothing & Healthcare was never mentioned in the Fundamental rights . Perhaps the countries from where our constitution was cut , copied and pasted had abundant resources to ignore food , clothing and healthcare but our ‘Wise Architects’ of the constitution did not look at the local conditions and need, and were more academically inclined to write a document then to go and see the realities and then draft the most important document for the nation ! More shocking is that , even today , our Hon’ble Prime Minister had / has advisors like Sam Pitroda , Raghuram Rajan and more recently Mr.Kaushik Basu again from Cornell University has been appointed as the Chief Economic Advisor. We have our own ‘foreign educated’ Kapil Sibal who wants to waive exams for class tenth but wants to make Education a fundamental right . Think that Food is still not the fundamental right and millions of children die before they reach the age of five .

Do we not have misplaced priorities ? With such thinkers having access to power to change the nation . Where are they going to take us . India needs four things on priority . Food , water , electricity & healthcare. Without providing these four basics , nation can never clock any substantial growth in GDP or raise people above the poverty line

We will keep raising the divide between ‘Empty’ & ‘Plenty’

Time to think logical

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: office@rajendragupta.org

office.rajendra@gmail.com

Maharashtra – Drive against non Maharashtrians – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted January 8, 2010 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Maharashtra – Change the name

Over the last two years , Maharashtra has been trying to tell the world that Maharashtra is for Maharashtrian’s and outsiders are unwelcome and unsafe . Raj Thackeray has been sending out his goons to recklessly beat & drive out the poor and weak people who do menial jobs like driving the rickshaws & Taxies , selling fruits & vegetables and working as masons for big builders . Actually, these are the people who run the economy of the state , and their families back home . They did not snatch anyone’s job. Amitabh Bacchhan or Shah Rukh or Mukesh Ambani or Ratan TATA did not make it big in Bombay because they came from outside and snatched someone’s job. They created opportunities for themselves and settled here. Same applies to people from Mahrashtra who are well off and have made good name in all parts of the world !! No one snatches someone’s job .

 It is just the simple rule of ‘Survival of the fastest’. Go to UAE , 70 % Of the population is from India and they are well to do . UAE was built by Indians. Locals in UAE respect and acknowledge the fact that UAE was built by Indians !!

Maharashtra was built similarly If you just look at the word MAHA- RASHTRA and its literal meaning .( English translation: MAHA= BIG , RASHTRA- NATION ). Maharashtra actually means a ‘Big Nation’. I wish people to interpret this state rightly and then play whatever politics works for the prosperity of this state and its people. With such parochial politics of Raj Thackeray at play , may be, it is the right time to rename Maharashtra . Maharashtra was built by Christians , Sindhi’s , Marwari’s , Gujarati’s , Keralites , Kannad etc ………were they not involved in building Maharashtra , it would be a different place then what it is today There are better issues to address if one needs to do politics , and hope that our wise residents of this ‘Big Nation- Maharashtra’  would not get carried away by cheap and short time tactics of the MNS or its affiliates

Babri Masjid demolition- The Real Culprit is ……………..

Posted January 8, 2010 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution, Religion

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Babri Masjid Demolition – Who is the real culprit ?  – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

It took seventeen years for Justice Liberhan to deliver his ‘Trash Report’ on the demolition of Babri Masjid. While a lot of finger pointing is being done at Rajiv Gandhi who did the Shilanyas in 1989 and opened the doors to the problem , then it comes to the turn of P.V.Narasmiha Rao, during whose ‘Rule’ the Masjid was demolished and lastly, comes the names of politicians like Atal Behari Vajpayee , Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi and Shri L.K.Advani et al. From different political perspectives , you can blame all of them or either of them !! History is always written by who wins the war !! This time the history was written by Congress !!

Over the last few weeks i have followed the Liberhan Commission report , the discussions and the writings in the media about the blame game on this Babri Demolition . If i were Justice M.S.Liberhan , i would have concluded my report in just three lines .

When trust fails , people resort to justice ,

When justice fails people resort to power,

When power fails , people resort to violence

 My understanding is that ,the  Babri Masjid case has been running for decades what the hell was judiciary doing for all these years ? Had they decided the case , the people would not have taken the law in their hands . History has proven that whenever law fails to deliver justice on time , people lose patience and take the law in their hands . So i would say that , neither congress nor BJP nor Kar sevaks nor the politics of this nation was responsible for the demolition of the Babri Masjid . It was the failure of the Indian Judicial system that led to the demolition .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.org

2010- The start of the India Decade

Posted January 4, 2010 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Global recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution

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Happy New Year

I wish all my friends a very happy new year and a great decade ahead. I truly wish that this decade becomes the ‘India Decade’ for the World, and we emerge as a great nation by 2020.

 Best regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

India Decade Foundation

Email: office@rajendragupta.org

Mobile : +91 9223344542

Address at the Dhanvantri Sewa Samman felicitation function by Chikitsasansaar

Posted December 27, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Climate change, Economy & Recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Uncategorized

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Friends ,

Thanks a lot for bestowing me this honour and giving me an opportunity to visit this historic city

I am thankful to the jury for having selected me for this honour though I am not a doctor !

It is a real pleasure to be speaking with such an audience in the land of famed rulers like Chandragupta I, Vikramaditya , Ashoka & Poet Kalidasa.

“The town fallen from heaven to bring heaven on earth” wrote Kalidasa about Ujjain. It is a twin blessing for me , first to visit Ujjain and second to get the award !!

I have been asked by the organizers to speak for a few minutes on

• India’s healthcare system versus the World Healthcare system & the future of the India’s healthcare system
• Retail Chains in India
• Indian Economy and its future

These three topics are loaded ones , and I need to dwell briefly on the same

Firstly,

Healthcare in India & the way forward : All across the world the healthcare systems have failed . In India, we are placed at a point in time when we can chose what we want, as we are about to build our healthcare system. We are here not by design but by default ! I have always said , we must not import failures !! Recently , i have sent out a detailed note to the Prime Minister and our Health minister on healthcare reforms . Imagine , we do not even have a epidemiological survey in India , so how can we build a healthcare policy without it ? We need to build more preventive care then tertiary care , unfortunately , we are doing the reverse . NRHM & NUHM can spend a lot of money but these adhoc schemes cannot build a lasting and a result oriented healthcare system

Health Insurance : People are very gung ho about Health insurance , we need to check if this is the right model for India !!! Government run blanket insurance schemes make people irresponsible and careless and the systems go bankrupt , this is what the failures in USA & Europe prove. Taking cue from this, India must re-look into the entire insurance business

Technology is advancing fast and becoming cheaper day by day and this must be used extensively at the PHC’s and PHC should become Panchayat Health centres with basic telemedicine facilities . India is the youngest nation with an average age around 26.5 years. If we don’t focus on healthy diet , fitness & chronic care , our economy will collapse due to exorbitant healthcare costs and an ailing and non-productive population over the next 30 years .

Retail chains in India .

Retail sector is the key to India’s economy. We have more than 12 million retailers and many times the multiple of 12 million earn their livelihood from this sector . Whilst the media opened the eyes and exposed us to the western world, we have got carried away and are trying the cut , copy and paste model to imitate what happens in other parts of the world , without even caring for the basics !!

I will limit my references here to the pharmacy chains here, though most of what I say applies to other general retailers as well.

Pharmacy trade has to be looked upon from three players perspective :

Independent retailers , organized chains and AIOCD Venture for retail

We have about 20 + retail pharmacy chains and trust me , all are having serious issues with scaling up and profits !! This leaves us with one learning , the current organized pharmacy model does not seem to be working .

Ironically, even AIOCD got carried away with organised retail . Though my understanding is that it will never be successful in getting into total pharma distribution , retail and market research; as their history shows them as a cartel extensively into boycotting and arm twisting pharma companies to accede to their demands. With such a history , and with same people at the helm of affairs , think what will happen if the pharmaceutical companies become totally dependent on AIOCD for their market research reports & distribution !! Also that, AIOCD is looking at private labels , manufacturing , retail chain companies , distribution and market research . Last thing for them to do is to appoint their health minister !! Result is a foregone conclusion

Retail chains have their own set of problems and will take time before they get the ‘right’ funding & the right people which has become the biggest bottle neck for the success of the pharmacy chains in India . If this continues , the organized pharmacy retail will be eaten up the MNC chains that will find a way in India in the next 3 years . Also that, the pharmacy chains are not united to present themselves as one voice and this is telling its tale with AIOCD tightening its noose around them . Overall , the next three years will see more deaths in the trade . Already a few players have started showing up symptoms of Asphyxia

Independent retailers : Two places where no one can defeat them is a sense of ownership and cost advantage !! Most of the organized retailers are losing money in monitoring their business with its supervisory infrastructure . Where you need to gear up is customer record keeping and satisfaction . Add adequate stocks and join hands to do good marketing by adapting to latest standards. Most importantly, please look at offering basic health checks for the part of the population you service . In the next two years , I expect pharmacies in India offering chronic care programs . This is what the pharmacies should be doing in India . Think small , act fast and aim big !!

Focus on basic cold chain infrastructure , join hands and approach the government for putting you in ‘Essential Population health services’ and offer you discounted electricity charges and lower taxes so that you could have the standards to maintain efficacy of medicines or else , ask the government to increase margins to 25 % for retail and 12 % for distribution. We have enormous potential for employment and pharmacies can bring about change that can make the healthcare system more result oriented as it the first and the last point of care for the common man . I see a bright future for small & independent retailers and big MNC chains !!

Indian Economy & Future :

We must not forget that India is a great country and we call ourselves a ‘developing country’. Now we need to change from being identified just as a ‘developing country’ ! We have much more than our economy for the world . The World cannot ignore our contribution to science , spirituality and peace . Ironically, our lack of public activism has given us a self seeking political leadership that lacks original ideas and for years, they leaned on Russia and then USA and in all probability , will lean on China in the next decade. We are trying to copy models from abroad . Even most of our Prime Minister’s advisors come from Abroad or foreign universities . Trust me , we are importing failures . China built SEZ’s , we tried to do the same ………………why , no one asks how many people have exited the SEZ business !! What kind of tax loss will the government have when we are currently under a huge budget deficit by promoting SEZ’s !!

We are living in a country with enormous potential . Just check that 1/6th of India is under naxals , 4/6th lives under less than Rs. 80 a day. So effectively , what you read in the news as growing India is just 1/6th of India . We have started measuring our growth with the growth of the sensex . If the sensex grows , we see growth . Unfortunately , not even 1 % of the population trades in shares . Ground situation is that we have a very high inflation , lawlessness and insecurity, and we push more poor people below the poverty line due to healthcare costs and price rise than we push above the poverty line every year

Go and check a crowded general compartment in Indian railways . People are seated in toilets to reach their destination. Looks like a scene of partition days . Why do we witness such a scene after more than 60 years of Independence ? Can railways not increase the coaches or trains ? Will this not make the lives of a common man better and earn more revenue for the government & add to the development of this nation ?

A few days back there was a hue and cry on Shashi Tharoor and S.M.Krishna staying in five stars hotels. Government announced an austerity drive. This week , government passed a bill allowing ministers to travel with families and relatives 48 times a year !!! Don’t forget , government’s money is not someone else’s , it is our money and we are letting all this happen with our eyes open and mouths closed. A time to get into action . But the government is least concerned as we are . We only speak , government also speaks; when we will act , government will also act! Government mirrors its citizens in actions

Finally , I must say that the government must focus on Agriculture , industrial production and SME’s for making India a progressive nation . All industries can fail but not agriculture & industries into daily needs

Lastly, i must touch the topic all the major nations for fighting for – Climate change

We should carefully commit to emission cuts keeping in view that we are far from industrialized . India must focus on emission per capita rather than ‘committing percentage cuts’. If you see the rough emission trends of the global emissions , India emits about 5%, Europe about 11 %, China about 15 % and USA about 20 %. Compare the population size and emissions and then decide . At maximum , we must stick to standards for emission norms and not commit summary cuts , even self imposed .

Even the World Bank’s study has contradicted the governments claims made that India can achieve an emission intensity target of 20-25 % below 2005 levels by 2020. It wonders how it is possible when the capital costs in setting up cleaner grid power could rise by 15-25 %. Though capital cost is only one of the several cost factors . Government’s claim was based on the home work done by the planning commission .

With this , i must thank you for patiently hearing me and enjoy the speakers ahead

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Vulgar Salaries – Indian Corporate World

Posted October 18, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Politics & Recession, Recession & Solution, Uncategorized

Mr.Salmaan Khurshid
Union Minister for Corporate Affairs
Government of India
New Delhi

Dear Mr. Khurshid ,

I wish to put my view point on your statement made a few days ago on the Vulgar salaries. Since i was travelling so i could not send this earlier .

Recently there has been a lot of hue and cry created due to a statement made by you. Earlier a similar statement had come from Dr. Manmohan Singh. According to you, corporate honchos are drawing salaries that are 12500 times the per capita income of this nation

I am not at all happy with your statement . I recall my letter to Dr. Manmohan Singh in January 09, wherein i requested that the salaries of the public representatives must be made more lucrative to attract the best brains

Also, that I must walk you through some of the realities in the corporate world and the politician’s working so as to make a correct assessment and a logical conclusion.

Firstly , Mr.Salmaan Khurshid , you must question why the governments in the last 62 years have not been able to increase the per capita income in this nation ? If the per capita income would have grown sufficiently , then you would not have a devastating comparison of 1:12500 ? Prime Facie your governments are at a fault for the backward development of this nation on the basis of caste and regions , and focussing on the real issues

Also , that the corporate world have created wealth for the nation and politicians have taken the nation’s wealth to Swiss Banks ? Did you take this into account before your statement ?

Corporates have created millions of Jobs. Be it TATA’s , Birla’s , RPG or Reliance or any big or even the smallest corporate house . These people have a lot of responsibility to deliver & risks to take at the cost of their family and social life. Still of whatever they earn , you ( i mean the government ) takes 50 % as taxes , both direct and indirect taxes. Needless to mention, about the income that government makes from the corporate taxes that the companies pay due to the hard work and intelligence of these executives !! . If they earn Rs.50 crore a year after delivering billion of dollars for the nation’s economy & creating lacs of jobs, what is wrong in that ? You forget that Ambani’s themselves contribute about 10 % to the total tax kitty of this nation ? What an irony that you would pat your back with his 60 % voluntary salary cut . Anyways, he has his net worth in billions of dollars as stakes in RIL etc…….. You must think of nationalising his stake in RIL

Did you also take into account the CSR ( Corporate social responsibility ) that the corporates undertake ?

Mr. Minister , did you ever consider that government run companies are ‘Toxic assets’ till your people run it, and they become ‘Exotic assets ’ once they are privatised !! Because when you pay peanuts , you get monkeys !!

Today , you go all over the world and scream of the India’s IT & Telecom numbers . This is done due to the hard work of Private CEO’s and not political monkeys !! You had the monopoly of BSNL & MTNL . What great job have you done despite the monopoly ? You privatised VSNL to TATA’s and it is doing good. You could not make good business out of it. In the 60’s when the private sector wanted to grow you licensed it and even nationalised it, claiming it was the right thing to do . After messing it for 40 years , now you are privatising and you believe that it is the best thing to do ? Are you not fooling the public ? You all are privatising as you don’t have the money to run the government !! That’s the truth .

Let me show you what you politicians do. Here are some examples

Centaur hotel at Mumbai airport was sold to Batra Hospitality for Rs. 85 crore . Without doing anything , Batra Hospitality sold it to Sahara for Rs. 143 Crore within a few weeks . And its occupancy is 100 % at any given point in time. What was your minister doing when Centaur failed to deliver ? What was the basis of his selling to Batra and not to Sahara directly ? Reason out why the hotel was sold at such a low cost to Batra Hospitality ? Government lost due to a minister that was not at all as competent as Batra Hospitality executives or …………………..

Your Current Civil Aviation minister had lost the election in 2004, despite that he was made the minister . Under his leadership, Indian airlines would stand to lose Rs.5000 Crores this year . Is this how a corporate CEO performs when he takes the so called ‘Vulgar’ salaries? Give me one example in India where the CEO gives such a humongous loss and still continues !!

India is facing an unprecedented shortage of agriculture products ( grains etc due to erratic and insufficient rains ). Please check the rule book of the FCI (Food corporation of India ) godowns ( warehouses ). 2.5 % of wastage is permissible ( please correct me , i may be wrong on this info). This means for one lac ton of grains , 2500 tons of wastage is permissible !! How efficient is this ? Please privatise and see the magic !!

Mr. Telecom Minister is delaying the allocation of 3G spectrum. It is estimated that the spectrum allocation would earn the government anywhere between Rs.20000 to 35000 crore . Ministry has already delayed the spectrum allocation by more than a year . If he takes it to two years . Just the interest loss to the government on the spectrum fees would be as high as Rs. 7000 crore ? Wish you had a corporate CEO taking Rs.100 Crore a year salary and saving you Rs.6900 crore ( Assuming a loss of Rs.7000 crore on the interest income ) ? Does it sound ‘Vulgar’ ? And , interestingly, even after giving such a massive loss to the government exchequer . Your minister has the ‘Cheeks’ to make tall statements and he is not accountable . Had it been a corporate CEO issue , he would have been removed ‘unceremoniously’ from the board , and his career would have ended forever !!

Sometime in 2007,i had a chance to meet once of the relatives of your Telecom Minister Mr.A.Raja . His relative asked for 10 lacs to make ten calls on behalf of the Minister to corporates irrespective of the outcome . What a business model ? Dare to act ? Please initiate a CBI inquiry against Mr.Raja’s assets and the truth should be out .

Earlier , you had the license Raj that killed the corporate world . Now you are trying to license the salaries ? Do you want corporate CEO’s to meet the Minister for taking approval of the salary hikes ? So that you all can start making money on corporate salaries ? Have some shame Mr. Minister !

When parties go to collect donations for the elections , why do you not talk about this ‘Vulgar salaries’. Shamelessly, you collect money from corporates and then have the ‘balls’ to talk nonsense !!

Do you also have a figure of the cost of buying an M.P’s vote in the ‘floor test’ of the house ? For an ordinary MLA it is about 50 core !! That’s what we have always heard or read in the news . Does this not sound ‘Vulgar’

When your allies ask for ‘Plum postings’ in Ministries what does it mean ?

Mr. Khurshid, let us check what the Minister’s take as salaries and perks:

• Average minister get’s an M.P.’s basic salary of Rs.1.92 Lac per annum
• Rs.24000 additional
• A Bungalow in Delhi – Costs upwards of Rs. 200 crore at today’s prices and would mean a rental of Rs.60 lacs a year
• A staff strength of 16 for cabinet ministers and 13 for Deputy ministers
• Plus Security Guards
• A fleet of three cars with Petrol ???
• Unlimited domestic and international calls
• Now ‘Cattle Class’ travel and also private jet’s and government choppers used for luxury travel – cost cannot be calculated off hand .
• A MPLAD fund of Rs. 2 crore for expenditure
• Above all . No accountability !!

Do you think that an M.P. can represent 1.9 million people and win an election at these salaries and perks ? unofficially , the average cost of becoming an M.P. is Rs. 20 crore . That is the reason that most of the current lot of M.P’s are either owners of media houses , educations trusts , shady businessmen or sons and daughters of politicians .Pay decent salaries to your M.P’s, rather than being jealous of the corporate salaries !! Corruption in politics is only, because all of us expect a lot from our politicians and they are grossly underpaid . My view point is , that each M.P. represents an average of 1.9 million citizen, and they must be paid a between Rs.5-10 crore per year as salary to get the best out of them.

With 545 M.P’s in Lok Sabha and 245 in Rajya Sabha working for this nation . We still had a staggering fiscal deficit of Rs. 2,10,000 crore in January 2009 and counting . It works out to a loss of Rs.575 cores a day , 23.95 crore per hour or Approx. Rs.40 Lac a minute. Does it not make sense to pay each M.P. a salary of Rs.5 -10 crore a year and get the best brains ? You all are penny wise and pound foolish policy makers !!

What a colossal opportunity loss for India due to ‘mediocre brains’ and ‘low salaries’. Please re-consider the salaries, and we ( at least i would be for sure ! ) would be glad to join !!

I know that recently , Mukesh Bhai decided to take a 60 % cut in his salary so Salmaan Khurshid can pat his back . Don’t take common man for a ride Salmaan Sahab . Your statements are a proof of your getting distracted by handling the ministry of corporate affairs . You should be made either the rural development minister , NAREGA , JNRHM or the minister of telecom . Your mouth would be shut for the next few years !! After all they are ‘Plum postings’ !!

Don’t forget that until 1980’s India was only known for poverty , population & corruption. It is the private sector that has taken India where it is today. Don’t try and meddle with the sector

Though , i must make a point that a very few corporate CEO’s in India take a salary of about Rs.10 crore or more . They are a handful in a land of 1.2 billion . Pray to God that we have more such CEO’s so that India can grow more . I want a wealthy India . You might say it is ‘Vulgar ‘ to think so !

Regret to write to you this email, but can’t stop expressing the thoughts

With no wishes or regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

President
Countryfirst
office@rajendragupta.org
President@countryfirst.org
+91-922 33 44 542

C.C.
Mrs.Sonial Gandhi
Dr.Manmohan Singh
Rahul Gandhi
Sharad Pawar
Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi, Chairman , Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance
Sitaram Yechury
A.P.J.Abdul Kalam
Shiv Khera
Ratan Tata
Mukesh Ambani
Anil Ambani
Media

India’s Economy in Recession

Posted November 1, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

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Indian Economy – two sides of the same coin

 

Why is Indian economy in recession? Indian economy was known as the most intriguing economy for the last three years. There was a lot of hype and hoopla created around the same, everyone wanted to ride the booming India. Some called it the ‘rise of the east’ or ‘a billion under-served customers’. It was the country no one wanted to miss. What happened? What went wrong and why at all?

 

Firstly, a few things led to a sudden hype.  Rise of Infosys and Wipro’s, TATA Tetley acquisition, Arcelor Mittal takeover, Indra Nooyi taking over PepsiCo as CEO, Arun Sarin over Vodafone etc…  This was backed by a lot of media coverage.

 

Secondly, the triumvirate of Manmohan Singh , P. Chidambaram & Montek Singh talking of a double digit growth excited a lot enthusiasm of politically connected ( and not so politically connected ) business groups to enter into ‘businesses of future’ like infrastructure , power, retail etc… This was based on ‘Big Talk’ of the triumvirate. We all know how many people pumped in money at unrealistic valuations and market was heated up beyond logic, banks were also enjoying the party, share market was expanding like a balloon, manpower was charging anything and still jumping for tempting offers, retail was spotting everywhere. Result: competition became suicidal. Money got pumped into real estate and supply increased and the prices soared. Brands started fighting for space and not profits. Finally, reality was surfacing; growth was not double digits; which the triumvirate shouted for three years. We saw profits were not as projected, corporates were missing numbers, shutting the outlets and man power layoffs. Just forcing Jet airways to take back air hostesses will not cover the reality…………how unfortunate!!!

 

Thirdly, the ‘Big consulting majors’ were talking in 2007 -8 about the multi-billion dollar markets suddenly growing three fold or four fold by 2012-15. How stupid of CEO’s  who believed these news releases of these so called ‘big consulting majors’ and spent millions  to buy their reports & finally presented their boards with these rosy projections and raised funds. Now they are shying about the current share prices and valuations (let’s not even talk about growth achievements versus plan or the crazy profits numbers!!!)

 

All the three factors basically did no good but just created a ‘sexy story’ about a nation like India, where more than 70 % people don’t have access to basic healthcare, only 3 % dabble in stock markets, only 10 towns can boast of a retail revolution, has 36 billionaires and more than 800 million living on about a dollar a day.

 

Let’s evaluate a little more ……..When people talked of India in 2007 they talked about big IT giants , call centre’s high paying jobs to teen agers, overseas acquisitions of TATA’s &  Mittal’s, Mumbai becoming like Shanghai, Big malls coming , dollars flowing as FDI, Big brands coming to India , MNC’s coming to India, ballooning stock markets, BPO’s multi million outsourcing contracts & the great retail revolution. Now with US / Europe in recession and may be, with Barack taking over as the next US President. India will have to take a big hit.  We just saw the first wave of negative effects of the US Financial market collapse. India’s stock market crashed almost to a third of its high. With India’s IT / BPO shying and taking to lay off’s, we know the real estate sector would be hit as the entire 2 BHK ( Two bed room , hall & Kitchen ) flat story was built on these young ‘Ripe aged’ employees buying flats at the age of 25-30. Splurging on mobiles and white goods by credit cards …………all this is over (believe me!!)

 

The hype was more of a story of 36 billionaires , Infosys, TATA, Arcelor, stock market manipulations , FDI and not the story of economic development & and the 800 million population. What we see happening was a foregone conclusion. It was not a ‘bubbling economy’ but an ‘economic bubble’. And it got burst

 

When the banks started hiring recovery agents, it was the start of the default / delinquency crises (credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %). Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. When the government has to get in to pump in money or the so called confidence, It’s a sure shot sign of crisis or recession or both.

 

I wish that congress leaders should have thought well before announcing a Rs.60000 crore write off for farmers. This has put a pressure on banks and it will manifest in banking / loan crises. Now imagine, I am a farmer with an Rs.10000 loan for my sister’s marriage or due to a crop failure (trust me, farmers crisis has come due to rise in social costs as much as crop failure). If my loan was waived off what it did to me?   Firstly, it gave me nothing to raise a healthy crop and earn for the season so my problem would be standing as such on my head. Has it given me seeds or irrigation which i needed? I could have earned and paid for the loans in the next few years (a moratorium on payments & Interest was more than enough). Moreover, it has set a precedent for me not to pay my loans and hope for future waivers. When politics drives finance, chaos is the only outcome.

 

Take a cue from USA . They have pumped 700 billion dollars ( India cannot think of even a tenth of this amount in the case of a crises !!! ). This pumping of funds actually helped the banking system in the US and not the economy as people have been made to believe in !

 

We can knock off any crises if India develops an indigenous model for growth in which technology only becomes the enabler and not the key driver or determinant. What i am pointing is that, we need not depend on FDI totally. When FDI came in, we were roaming the whole world and shouting about it. Now that these economies are under crises, they will take care of their home first, and may even exit from our country as we have seen in the case of FII’s exiting the stock market and leading to a sudden crash. We must have started our economy with 75 % dependence on domestic and 25 % on foreign fund generation besides a host of infrastructure & ground level measures. We need a ‘self reliant India growth model’ and not a USA – Europe dependent-driven growth model. Hope the policy makers will learn from the crises & take steps to correct it.

 

Now a day’s the most talked about line from the ruling politicians is, that India is fundamentally strong economy. Which ‘Fundamentals’ are they referring to ? Our consumer sentiment is low, stock markets have crashed,  industrial production is low , inflation is high, uncertainty is looming over every corporate , retrenchment is happening , rupee is weak against the dollar, farmers that constitute 65-70 % of the population are committing suicides , IT & BPO industry is hit hard due to US –Europe recession, terrorism and lawlessness is rampant. I am still trying to get which fundaments appear to be strong !!! Is it the large suffering population that is being referred to ?

 

Coming to the most happening sector – The great Indian retail story : I see some retailers having burnt their fingers in metros , now are planning of moving to class II & III towns for the next cycle of growth. Let me express boldly, that this will be a big loss making proposition. In towns like Mumbai and Gurgaon, retailers are having a tough time, how come they will survive in smaller towns with more ‘service class’ & ‘Small time traders’ people. At least , bigger towns have industries and other corporates to support higher spending opportunities. Some learned Advisors have informed these retailers that 70 % of India lives in rural areas so rural India is a bigger market than urban India (calculating that rural India with USD 530 income per capita is three times the population of urban India with the per capita income of USD 1200). What an ‘unintelligent logic’. The 530 USD that the rural India earns is not even enough to spend on basics, unlike urbanites who have the basics already and can afford to spend on the new class of products which supports the modern retail formats.  It is analogous to three boys of seven years marrying a girl of eighteen years (3 boys x 7 years = 21 Years, marriageable age!!!). Intelligent logic isn’t!!! That’s what our great retailers are trying to do .  Only smart ones are Pantaloon and Wal-mart. Rest all are smart looking idiots !!!

 

Retailers must realise that they are making investments for 2012-15 market projections. The figures of these projections are not even validated. But the cash burnout is happening now. Imagine this , rentals going up by 5 % every year , salaries by 20-30 % , cash burnout for new openings , increasing offering –SKU’s, reducing margins to attract customers or wash off old inventory. However can a retailer survive ?  Adding to this , move to class II towns!!!

 

Just to make a note that if in towns like Panvel in Navi Mumbai, the two supermarkets owned by Foodland have closed within a year due to opening of ‘MORE’ supermarkets, D’mart & Reliance Fresh stores, how can small kirana stores survive? If i don’t go wrong, even ‘More’ & Reliance will have to shut down in the times to come in the area or make perpetual losses . So the retail story in its current form is not a lasting one. But the lessons are to be learnt . One thing that has happened in India which is totally wrong is that, we have tried to CCP (cut, copy and paste) foreign retailers. But we have missed to note the most important point , that foreign retailers were pretty slow in the first ten years in their country. Even Mukesh Ambani made a strategic mistake; he announced 5 billion dollar investment in retail only to face the back lash from local traders. No one expected seasoned businesses houses to make such tall claims ….This gives us a clear feeling that Indians are unaware and unprepared for the hype that has been created by the media and neither are they guided by the realities . I would call Wal-Mart the smartest retailer in India. They have just done a retail tie up in India without using its brand name . So that the Indian partner has the expense & experience and Wal-mart has the learning’s. Moreover, their growth plans are practical. Just 15 stores now compared to 600 + stores of Reliance and Birla’s. What if the Ambani’s & Birla’s want to change the strategy or make changes backwards because of their learning’s?? It is easier to correct and make changes in 15 stores of Wal-Mart then 600+ stores of Reliance or Birla’s.

 

 

 

 

We must note:

 

85 % of the rural India does not have the power to consume very much at the prices that currently prevail in the market.

30 % of urban India constitutes 75 % of the GDP.

70 % of the rural India constitutes 23 % of GDP

According to the Central Statistical organization, in 2001, 48 % of the rural GDP was agricultural.

 

 In 2001, the NDP contributors were:  agriculture 46 % , industry 21 % and services 33 %.

 

If India needs to grow sustainably, we need to make a prudent choice between education, vocational training and SSI. Needless to mention that, India’s growth will be driven by creating more jobs in lowest rungs of the society. They will build the real consumption led growth for a ‘Shining India’. The earlier, the better. 

 

India today is in a recession and we must accept the fact. By closing our eyes the problems will still remain.  We must build growth models not based on dollars , stock markets , urban India but go in for holistic models of growth that suit the local conditions and requirements , are broad based for all sections of society and industry , and just don’t reflect isolated figures .

 

 

 

Aditya Birla Retail – Dead end ????

Posted November 19, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , ,

Aditya Birla retail seems to be nearing a dead end. With arround 640 stores and losing close to Rs.30 crore a month. It might be the most difficult business for the Birla Group so far. What is interesting to note is , that there are 640 stores, and out of them 100 stores are having a sales of Rs. 5 to 6 per sq.feet. Whereas , the expenses are above Rs.200 per sq.feet. Knowing well, that any expenses including rental , if exceeds Rs.110 per sq.ft. It is a loss making proposition.

All this started with Kumar Managalam pushing for numbers in the initial days. Due to intense pressure, Sumanta Sinha did what the master expected. So the pressure filtered downwards , leading to the number game and the quality of the locations and the rentals were compromised heavily.

Now more than 100 stores need to be closed in my view, and earlier the better, or the business gets on the block. The grapevine is, that Mckinsey is doing a valuation excercise.

Adding to this mistake of chasing number game is the expat seniors who take crores of package , and learn the Indian retail business at the expense of the biggies like Reliance or Birla’s. Time will tell us, those who don’t know what is being sold and where, are teaching India how to sell ???

Hiring expats is another stupidity from the Indian retailers. Who will learn the lesson the hard way.

Mumbai Terror Strike – Declare Pakistan a Terrorist state

Posted November 30, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Recent terror strike has proven a few things again.

1. Our politicians are headless and spineless ( Do not talk of respect or self esteem !!! It does not apply to them ).
2. Our police force and intelligence is ‘Unintelligent’ and ‘Corrupt’ from top to bottom.
3. We as voters have failed to do our duty

Let’s note these few lines and not forget them

When Trust is gone , people resort to justice
When justice fails, people resort to power
When power is ineffective, people resort to violence

See America , one 9/11 and then no one had the guts to replay the same. Our country sees it time and again. Nothing new! Living in India is as insecure as living in Kabul or Baghdad !

We have a force ( police and military ) which is corrupt and used by politicians for settling its scores or making money. How can we expect them to deliver ?

None of the Congress or BJP has the solution for these problems . We need to form a new front that comprises of people who want change . It does not mean that we form a political outfit , we must have an ideological agreement to select the candidates that we want , it is not easy , but we have no other choice !!! We must not delay or else , next time when such things happen. We might be mourning the loss of our loved & a dear one !!!

Just think that India is crying foul and saying that Pakistan is responsible for these incidents. But can India not declare Pakistan a ‘Terrorist state’ and sever the diplomatic ties till it hands over Dawood Ibrahim etc ?What holds these idiot politicians from doing this !!

We must have a ‘policy that is documented to fight terrorism’. A written document that states that we will not negotiate with terrorists at any cost, and strike them dead along with whomsoever they hold hostage. So that the terrorists will know, that nothing will work on this land that involves black mailing or terrorism. The trails should be done within ninety days and the punishment should be ‘ Hanged until death’ Nothing less.

We need a government that acts not with compulsions, but according to the circumstances in the best and long term interest of its citizens. Realise this , or regret later.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst.

China the next Super Power ?

Posted November 30, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Politics had its own history cycles. Let’s peep into the same. Earlier, UK ( Britain) was the only power in the world , then came US and USSR. Now it is just US. But what next ? Who is the next super power ? It does not take much brain to figure out that China is the next super power unless USA does something magical.

Population wise, growth in the economy wise, loans to America , products of China are on every shelf in every part of the world. No doubt, China , if it can escape the current financial turmoil is the next super power and India should be watchful in its relations with China .

If China wishes , it can collapse US in a matter of weeks and US knows it well .

Let’s see how china escapes the current financial crises to become the next global super power.

Religion or Honesty

Posted December 1, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Terror strike

Tags: , , , , ,

No God supports a Religion

Did Jesus build a single church in his lifetime ? Did Ram build a temple ? Did Prophet build a mosque ?

Not a single incarnation of the almighty build a place of worship. We build them after their deaths for meeting our selfish ends and we are reaping the outcomes. All religions and beliefs are meant for guiding our conscience and strengthening it. Not for flaunting it to grab importance , power , positions or property . Today , that’s all we are trying to do by using religion

There are only two religions; man and women and nothing else. There is only one faith , the universal faith of peace , love and forgiveness. No belief tells us to kill or take someone’s life. Infact, all our politicians are totally ignorant of the laws of nature . The day they understand the same , this world will be a much better place to live in and die for.

I hope that we have a divide a digital divide and literacy divide an urban and a rural divide . So that these divides can lead us to equality and progress. Let’s work for it. We don’t need religion, we need honesty with courage and conviction

It’s a call to action

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

Mumbai Terror Strike – Root Cause of Terrorism

Posted December 4, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Terror strike

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Misplaced priorities , corruption & lack of public awareness is the root cause of Terrorism

Let’s examine in detail. Our governments and disgraced politicians see vote in every individual and not an individual in every vote. They treat their families as the most important lives and the public as mere statistics. Just try to reason out why politicians are rarely killed ? Because they are heavily guarded and they have the intelligence reports that we know only after the terrorists strike !! Politician’s main goal is to ‘Report progress’, waste public money in press releases for image makeover or getting votes, making money by taking cut in deals or passing orders that benefit the big business houses and moneyed people to further their goals . Clearly the public welfare is not the goal of the politicians . Don’t hope much. If so many ministers have been sacked , it is only because the public anger will cost them votes in the coming elections or these ‘political bastards’ would be standing behind these corrupt or / and inefficient politicians and not dismissing them !!

The Politician- Bureaucrats-Businessmen- religious heads- Criminal nexus is eating the state and good governance in India. Today , all major business houses pay ‘fees’ to solicit political support . Trust me, not a single business house can survive and prosper without political support . All these are nothing but “an all cash deals”. This cash not only fills the political parties coffers but also that of the individual politicians . This money is used to get into power and not the intellectual class votes as many would impress upon us. If a few lakh people light candles and write slogans or shout at Gateway of India . Don’t think it will change the election outcome. As still ,a good 65 % of the rural folks who will be ‘Brought’ by these political parties and directed to stamp the ‘Lotus’ or the ‘Slapping and fearful hand- read congress’. If you want changes , you will have to do a lot more …..That’s why you will find that the public aspirations are never political goals !! There is a clear disconnect. India cannot have an Obama as it is not a ‘Personality’ based political system , it’s a party based political system. Except the ‘Gandhi’ dynasty no one has been able to sustain. There are roads , hospitals and even a Sanjay Gandhi Park in his name . Except being the son of the Prime Minister and a MP for five months ???? Still so many memories in his name ??? What did he do for this nation ?? This is what the World Famous Wikipedia search has in his name .

“Sanjay Gandhi (December 14, 1946 –- June 23, 1980) was an Indian politician, the younger son of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and politician Feroze Gandhi. A controversial figure, he was accused of abuses during the Emergency and died in an aero plane crash shortly after his mother’s return to power. He had been elected to the Parliament of India five months before his death. Sanjay, along with his elder brother Rajiv Gandhi, studied Grades 1 to 6 at the Welham Boys’ School and Grades 7 to 12 at The Doon School in Dehra Dun, as well as in England. Sanjay never attended college, but took up an apprenticeship with Rolls-Royce. He was very interested in sports cars, and he also obtained a pilot’s license. While his elder brother Rajiv was building a career as an airline pilot independent of politics, Sanjay chose to remain close to his mother.”

Not let’s examine the corruption : I had raised an issue against the Mumbai Police Commissioner , A.N.Roy ( Currently , Director General Police , Maharashtra ). He had no option but to suspend the two corrupt police men. Though, there was a lot pressure on myself from him to withdraw the case & i did not . I wrote an open letter to him which was published by the media and he had to bow down. Today, one of the policemen who had taken bribe and has returned it later, and was suspended on those charges, is in the personal security of the Deputy CM , R.R. Patil. Whom public thinks is a damn honesty guy – What a joke !! If he is honest , why the hell did he keep Inspector Raju Mane in his staff ??? A.N.Roy is an inefficient officer and there are ample proofs of his incompetence . When the two police inspectors were suspended on my complaint, a few officers appreciated my courage to fight against their ‘Big Boss ( A.N.Roy was the Mumbai Police commissioner at that time) and they became my friends, and revealed to me in confidence , that there were gangs within the police force affiliated to the likes of Dawood Ibrahim , Chota Rajan and Chota Shakeel etc. And that for killing the rival gang members , the police force is ‘decently paid’ by these gangs. Having a police uniform is just a mere a public eyewash. Now you can understand , why despite the fisherman society’s President telling the Maharashtra police about the imminent terror attacks via Colaba fisherman’s village, the police did not act ? Who wishes to lose the ‘Hefty payments’ from these gangs. If policeman own the best of cars, gadgets and houses- Some of the policemen are owning bars and buildings !! Where does the money come from ??? A few days back , a Police inspector had called me on Diwali to wish me and informed that he was trying to get into Narcotics department . We all know ‘Rave parties’ and the use of drugs !! Now we can understand why all this will not stop.? Police is corrupt from ‘Top’ to ‘Bottom’ and most of the posts are ‘Sold’ rather ‘auctioned’. Get a CBI inquiry and all this will come to light .

Now let’s examine the awareness part. After every terror strike, politicians – officers make a announcement that they had warned months in advance, and they were even aware of the ‘target’. Here is the most important issue. First let’s take the case of the recent Mumbai terrorist strike. A lot of government agencies like RAW etc have given similar statements . When RAW came to know that the sea based attack was to happen at Taj Hotel and Oberoi hotel. For sure, that they did not dream this piece of intelligence . It would have come through some people , credible sources , intercepts. Why the hell these people not get into depth or the details. Suppose , you intercept a call. You can trace the caller and track him down till his location- technology today enables you to do it. The call certainly was between two countries and one of them was probably , India . It was easy to catch the guy in India and interrogate him , the terror strike could not only be averted but also have prevented future strikes . Or when the Colaba fisherman’s association President gave a written complaint to the DGP /CM about the probable terror strike. He must have seen a suspicious ‘Jetties or people coming on boats or talking about the same’. So the terrorists were known to us and no one tried to stop them. Allowing them kill 200+ people. If the police would have acted the very day this complaint was filed by the fisherman. The person who aroused definite suspicions must have been arrested , questioned and the Mumbai terror strike would not have happened.

I must ask you , why do we as public not know about such information in advance ? Why it is limited to the so called National Security Advisor or the Intelligence agencies. After all, we all as ordinary citizens die. Government wants public support ? But they do not want to disclose us about the strikes from terrorists ? We can do a better job than these inefficient police and politicians . Hand over the intelligence reports and we will handle terrorist Mr. Manmohan Singh !!

Role of money and where it comes from ? All builders in Mumbai take a portion of the cost of the flat or House as ‘Cash’. This is shared with BMC – CIDCO – Other approval authorities – underworld . Finally, the money paid to Bureaucrats get’s routed to the concerned politicians and the underworld money may be used in the blasts like the intelligence pointed at the involvement of Dawood’s role in the blasts. No need for a CBI inquiry. Just walk into any builders office . You will have all answers

Irony from the government is, that we still do not have a clearly defined policy against terrorism. We must formalize a policy that, INDIA WILL NOT TOLERATE TERRORISM. WE WILL DO ALL TO KILL ANY TERRORIST ENTERING , LIVING OR LEAVING OUR COUNRY. INDIA WILL NEVER NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISM. A short ,clear and vocal policy against terrorism is an immediate need.

We cannot afford to wait , the media must play an active role and we will fight to win.

The result of writing this : I may die ( Read killed ) in a suspicious manner !! You might act and try and bring about the change that will have a lasting impact on our and the coming generation. ACT , ACT & ACT NOW or you might lie paralysed or dead in the next terrorist strike.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

Indian Economy headed for a severe historic recession

Posted December 6, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Religion, Terror strike, Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Indian Economy – Getting into worst ever recession ??

It is high time , we acted fast by reducing fuel prices, drastically reducing loan rates and take all possible measures to ease out of a severe recession. Every where, there is a job loss, loss of contract, shrinking consumer spends , production cuts, halting growth plans, adding to this , the recent terror strikes have crippled our already bad travel and aviation sector. We need to convince the consumer that all these steps would be long term. Trust me, we are headed towards a severe recession that will blow out the India story. We don’t need a nuclear deal or a moon mission as a priority today, what We need is ,to keep our feet on our ground. India needs to be pragmatic. This road to recession can be a good turning point for the Indian Economy if used as an opportunity

Why is Indian economy in recession? Indian economy was known as the most intriguing economy for the last three years. There was a lot of hype and hoopla created around the same, everyone wanted to ride the booming India. Some called it the ‘rise of the east’ or ‘a billion under-served customers’. It was the country no one wanted to miss. What happened? What went wrong and why at all?

Firstly, a few things led to a sudden hype. Rise of Infosys and Wipro’s, TATA Tetley acquisition, Arcelor Mittal takeover, Indra Nooyi taking over PepsiCo as CEO, Arun Sarin took over Vodafone etc… This was backed by a lot of media coverage.

Secondly, the triumvirate of Manmohan Singh , P. Chidambaram & Montek Singh talking of a double digit growth excited a lot enthusiasm of politically connected ( and not so politically connected ) business groups to enter into ‘businesses of future’ like infrastructure , power, retail etc… This was based on ‘Big Talk’ of the triumvirate. We all know how many people pumped in money at unrealistic valuations and market was heated up beyond logic, banks were also enjoying the party, share market was expanding like a balloon, manpower was charging anything and still jumping for tempting offers, retail was spotting everywhere. Result: competition became suicidal. Money got pumped into real estate and supply increased and the prices soared. Brands started fighting for space and not profits. Finally, reality was surfacing; growth was not double digits; which the triumvirate shouted for three years. We saw profits were not as projected, corporates were missing numbers, shutting the outlets and man power layoffs. Just forcing Jet airways to take back air hostesses will not cover the reality…………how unfortunate!!!

Thirdly, the ‘Big consulting majors’ were talking in 2007 -8 about the multi-billion dollar markets suddenly growing three fold or four fold by 2012-15. How stupid of CEO’s who believed these news releases of these so called ‘big consulting majors’ and spent millions to buy their reports & finally presented their boards with these rosy projections and raised funds. Now they are shying about the current share prices and valuations (let’s not even talk about growth achievements versus plan or the crazy profits numbers!!!)

All the three factors basically did no good but just created a ‘sexy story’ about a nation like India, where more than 70 % people don’t have access to basic healthcare, only 3 % dabble in stock markets, only 10 towns can boast of a retail revolution, has 36 billionaires and more than 800 million living on about a dollar a day.

Let’s evaluate a little more ……..When people talked of India in 2007 they talked about big IT giants , call centre’s high paying jobs to teen agers, overseas acquisitions of TATA’s & Mittal’s, Mumbai becoming like Shanghai, Big malls coming , dollars flowing as FDI, Big brands coming to India , MNC’s coming to India, ballooning stock markets, BPO’s multi million outsourcing contracts & the great retail revolution. Now with US / Europe in recession and may be, with Barack taking over as the next US President. India will have to take a big hit. We just saw the first wave of negative effects of the US Financial market collapse. India’s stock market crashed almost to a third of its high. With India’s IT / BPO shying and taking to lay off’s, we know the real estate sector would be hit as the entire 2 BHK ( Two bed room , hall & Kitchen ) flat story was built on these young ‘Ripe aged’ employees buying flats at the age of 25-30. Splurging on mobiles and white goods by credit cards …………all this is over (believe me!!)

The hype was more of a story of 36 billionaires , Infosys, TATA, Arcelor, stock market manipulations , FDI and not the story of economic development & and the 800 million population. What we see happening was a foregone conclusion. It was not a ‘bubbling economy’ but an ‘economic bubble’. And it got burst

When the banks started hiring recovery agents, it was the start of the default / delinquency crises (credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %). Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. When the government has to get in to pump in money or the so called confidence, It’s a sure shot sign of crisis or recession or both.

I wish that congress leaders should have thought well before announcing a Rs.60000 crore write off for farmers. This has put a pressure on banks and it will manifest in banking / loan crises. Now imagine, I am a farmer with an Rs.10000 loan for my sister’s marriage or due to a crop failure (trust me, farmers crisis has come due to rise in social costs as much as crop failure). If my loan was waived off what it did to me? Firstly, it gave me nothing to raise a healthy crop and earn for the season so my problem would be standing as such on my head. Has it given me seeds or irrigation which i needed? I could have earned and paid for the loans in the next few years (a moratorium on payments & Interest was more than enough). Moreover, it has set a precedent for me not to pay my loans and hope for future waivers. When politics drives finance, chaos is the only outcome.

Take a cue from USA . They have pumped 700 billion dollars ( India cannot think of even a tenth of this amount in the case of a crises !!! ). This pumping of funds actually helped the banking system in the US and not the economy as people have been made to believe in !

We can knock off any crises if India develops an indigenous model for growth in which technology only becomes the enabler and not the key driver or determinant. What i am pointing is that, we need not depend on FDI totally. When FDI came in, we were roaming the whole world and shouting about it. Now that these economies are under crises, they will take care of their home first, and may even exit from our country as we have seen in the case of FII’s exiting the stock market and leading to a sudden crash. We must have started our economy with 75 % dependence on domestic and 25 % on foreign fund generation besides a host of infrastructure & ground level measures. We need a ‘self reliant India growth model’ and not a USA – Europe dependent-driven growth model. Hope the policy makers will learn from the crises & take steps to correct it.

Now a day’s the most talked about line from the ruling politicians is, that India is fundamentally strong economy. Which ‘Fundamentals’ are they referring to ? Our consumer sentiment is low, stock markets have crashed, industrial production is low , inflation is high, uncertainty is looming over every corporate , retrenchment is happening , rupee is weak against the dollar, farmers that constitute 65-70 % of the population are committing suicides , IT & BPO industry is hit hard due to US –Europe recession, terrorism and lawlessness is rampant. I am still trying to get which fundaments appear to be strong !!! Is it the large suffering population that is being referred to ?

Coming to the most happening sector – The great Indian retail story : I see some retailers having burnt their fingers in metros , now are planning of moving to class II & III towns for the next cycle of growth. Let me express boldly, that this will be a big loss making proposition. In towns like Mumbai and Gurgaon, retailers are having a tough time, how come they will survive in smaller towns with more ‘service class’ & ‘Small time traders’ people. At least , bigger towns have industries and other corporates to support higher spending opportunities. Some learned Advisors have informed these retailers that 70 % of India lives in rural areas so rural India is a bigger market than urban India (calculating that rural India with USD 530 income per capita is three times the population of urban India with the per capita income of USD 1200). What an ‘unintelligent logic’. The 530 USD that the rural India earns is not even enough to spend on basics, unlike urbanites who have the basics already and can afford to spend on the new class of products which supports the modern retail formats. It is analogous to three boys of seven years marrying a girl of eighteen years (3 boys x 7 years = 21 Years, marriageable age!!!). Intelligent logic isn’t!!! That’s what our great retailers are trying to do . Only smart ones are Pantaloon and Wal-mart. Rest all are smart looking idiots !!!

Retailers must realise that they are making investments for 2012-15 market projections. The figures of these projections are not even validated. But the cash burnout is happening now. Imagine this , rentals going up by 5 % every year , salaries by 20-30 % , cash burnout for new openings , increasing offering –SKU’s, reducing margins to attract customers or wash off old inventory. However can a retailer survive ? Adding to this , move to class II towns!!!

Just to make a note that if in towns like Panvel in Navi Mumbai, the two supermarkets owned by Foodland have closed within a year due to opening of ‘MORE’ supermarkets, D’mart & Reliance Fresh stores, how can small kirana stores survive? If i don’t go wrong, even ‘More’ & Reliance will have to shut down in the times to come in the area or make perpetual losses . So the retail story in its current form is not a lasting one. But the lessons are to be learnt . One thing that has happened in India which is totally wrong is that, we have tried to CCP (cut, copy and paste) foreign retailers. But we have missed to note the most important point , that foreign retailers were pretty slow in the first ten years in their country. Even Mukesh Ambani made a strategic mistake; he announced 5 billion dollar investment in retail only to face the back lash from local traders. No one expected seasoned businesses houses to make such tall claims ….This gives us a clear feeling that Indians are unaware and unprepared for the hype that has been created by the media and neither are they guided by the realities . I would call Wal-Mart the smartest retailer in India. They have just done a retail tie up in India without using its brand name . So that the Indian partner has the expense & experience and Wal-mart has the learning’s. Moreover, their growth plans are practical. Just 15 stores now compared to 600 + stores of Reliance and Birla’s. What if the Ambani’s & Birla’s want to change the strategy or make changes backwards because of their learning’s?? It is easier to correct and make changes in 15 stores of Wal-Mart then 600+ stores of Reliance or Birla’s.

We must note:

85 % of the rural India does not have the power to consume very much at the prices that currently prevail in the market.
30 % of urban India constitutes 75 % of the GDP.
70 % of the rural India constitutes 23 % of GDP
According to the Central Statistical organization, in 2001, 48 % of the rural GDP was agricultural.

In 2001, the NDP contributors were: agriculture 46 % , industry 21 % and services 33 %.

If India needs to grow sustainably, we need to make a prudent choice between education, vocational training and SSI. Needless to mention that, India’s growth will be driven by creating more jobs in lowest rungs of the society. They will build the real consumption led growth for a ‘Shining India’. The earlier, the better.

India today is in a recession and we must accept the fact. By closing our eyes the problems will still remain. We must build growth models not based on dollars , stock markets , urban India but go in for holistic models of growth that suit the local conditions and requirements , are broad based for all sections of society and industry , and just don’t reflect isolated figures .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

US economy, Recession , terrorism, Economic fundamentals, Barack Obama, Recession in Indian economy, Terrorism , Curruption.

Way forward for India- Declare Pakistan a rogue state

Posted December 7, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Religion, Terror strike

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

For the last few decades, India has been losing lives, money and economic opportunities due to the terrorist activity emanating from the land of Pakistan. Since , terrorism is not limited by geographies , it is high time, that India initiates a “Global partnership to fight terrorism” . Forms an international coalition of military forces that fights terrorism across borders . Let all countries sign the partnership, contribute to this military force , and let these forces enter any member country, and take all steps to ensure that none of the countries allow its land to be used for terrorist activities. This is the only way to fight terrorism. Am sure that Pakistan will always avoid to join this . This could be done under the auspices of UNO. The burden on individual nations would not be much , but the outcomes would be phenomenal.

Else, there is a more harsh way to deal with it- which we should avoid. Attack Pakistan and countries that indulge in terrorism. If i were the PM , probably , i would have given a 24 hour ultimatum to Pakistan to handover the most wanted terrorists. In case, it failed to do that , i would have bombed Pakistan and taken the India’s political map back to pre 1947 days. Why let our billion population live under constant fear of dying any moment with bullets , when we have already given what Jinnah wanted and shared our culture , people and natural wealth more than 60 years ago. We lost millions then , and we continue to lose now . We have already divided the nation in 1947 based on religion. Why not decide either ways now. If India wants to be secular , it has to be safe or else , let it be a Hindu nation . if that let’s poor Indians to live in peace – We have tried all peace processes , our options are running out ! Why lose lives after lives every day because we have chosen to be a secular nation. Are we paying the price of being a secular nation !! Our politicians should not forget that we are not dying with terrorism but living with terrorism , and that’s more dangerous . We are dying every moment , psychologically. Why ? What is our fault.

In any case, after terrorist attacks in Mumbai, we must snap all ties with Pakistan and declare it a ‘Rogue and Terrorist state’. If we want to have a milder approach . Let it be declared a ‘Terror watch list nation’ and take this issue internationally.

Peace is the first pre-condition to progress and development . How long we will continue to live under the fear of dying with bullets ? Any nation that has the potential to develop and grow exponentially is a victim of terrorism today. I am not too sure who is behind the ‘Terrorism’. But the first suggestion is the most practical .

I want all Indians to not waste any more time . But get organised locally and form chapters to take the nations issues in our hands. It is high time we do it. If we fail to act in the next general elections , we will lose another five years and push India behind by another 30-50 years . Do we have that luxury ? We have a billion + population and majority of them are frustrated with the current system. Let’s change it . It is only in our hands. We have a big responsibility and people have expectations from educated people like us who can use the internet , write and read and connect. Let’s not betray them. More than 99 % of India wants us to bring about the change , do we ditch them ???

You all must be expecting that these politicians will act. No , they will not . Till date, the person who was sentenced to death for attacks on parliament is not hanged. We have politicians who make tall media statements and fail to act where they need to. They want their stupid and ugly face and words to come every now and then on the media …………We cannot be silent spectators anymore . Act now.

Each one of us has the potential to change this moment and this nation. We need to take the first step. The first step is to act immediately and connect with all our friends and start a wave, a moment to redefine the role of each one in building a nation. India has always shown the world the way to learn and lead . We can do it now and you will have to start.

Note this ,

One mind can awaken another, the second can awaken their next-door brother, three awake can awaken the town, by turning the place upside down, and many awake can make such a fuss, that they finally awaken the rest of us. – Helen Kromer

Best ,

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

Beauty and business – Aviation Sector

Posted December 8, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , ,

Dear Mr.Praful Patel,

When a few months back Jet airways sacked about 1200 air hostess . Seeing these pretty girls crying , you were moved so much that you called the Jet Airways chief and pressurised him to with draw the order. You even went to the extent of black mailing ( by saying that if the airlines needs sops , they need to avoid sacking )

Look here now :

There are about a crore travel agents in India who sell almost 85 % of the air tickets ( as per the report published today in The Economic Times ). They are nearing to get out of business. As the airlines have decided to withdraw the commission on the sale of air tickets and also the surcharge that these agents were levying on air tickets.

Most airlines did away with the 5% commission on Nov 1,2008 forcing travel agents to shift to a fixed transaction fee for every ticket issued. However ,the fixed transaction fee which was in the range of Rs.350 to 2500 a ticket depending upon the class and routes , had also been discontinued from December.

Mr. Patel, India is in a severe recession ( read www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com ) , and putting one crore travel agent’s families out of business is a proof of your inaction and being unpragmatic. Please wake up and get into the act immediately. It’s a call to action

Best,

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

Economy in recession, aviation , Stock markets , India , Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Hello Mr.Manmohan & P.C.

Posted December 28, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Religion, Terror strike, Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Indian Economy is in a severe recession: Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Our Mr. Blind ( P. Chidambaram ) and Mr.Sardar ( Not Asardaar – Mr. Manmohan Singh ) have recently denied that Indian Economy is in a recession.

Except God, for everything else , i believe in data. Here is what the duo might need to relook to give up their selective blindness . Sir’s please look into the same

The Tax collections for December quarter dropped by 22 % ( According to the Economic Times dated 27th Dec 2008 )

60 % of the 8000 units into diamond polishing and cutting business went on forced holiday leaving 100,000 people without jobs . Narendra Modi has refused any package for them ( Times of India 27th Dec 2008). There is a 40 % reduction in demand according to Gems and Jewellery Promotion Council ( GJEPC). Exports account for $ 20 billion in the industry

The gross NPA’s of banks will reach 4.7 % of the total loans in FY10 from the current of 2.3 %. Credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %. Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. In the first half of Dec 2008, in Bangalore itself there have been defaults to the tune of Rs.80.23 crore at Corporation Bank . Out of the total home loan portfolio exposure of Rs.1000 cr , 50 % is in the IT sector. Defaults will start increase going forward. We will see the real impact in April 09.

I was recently in Delhi and talked to my cab driver ( he drives for a cab company at Delhi airport ). He informed me that, earlier he would earn between 15 – 22000.00 per month . Now for the last three months , his income has dropped to Rs.6000.00. He is expected to do a minimum of 52 trips a month which is getting difficult now . So he was worried.

Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India are via loans. Kotak Mahindra Bank has repossessed about 200 vehicles. Deepak Sachdeva , President of the Delhi Goods Transport association said that between April and December 2008 alone , close to 158000 commercial vehicles were either surrendered or repossessed due to loan defaults. According to The Mint dated Dec 26th 2008. With such an massive loss, just imagine what must be happening to the families of 158000 truck drivers, helpers , cleaners and the people associated with providing services at Dhabas and repairers for these trucks !! It is a solid loss for a small economy like India

All the businesses have cut down the expansion plans and the same will continue for the next year in my view . TATA motors have cut the production for two days a week, Cisco is on long Christmas and a new year holiday, All auto majors including Maruti is slowing or voluntarily suspending production to take care of the ‘standing or piled up’ inventories

ACC cement has already shut the production in one of the plants and slowed the same in others

I visited quite a few malls and talked to employees. At Lifestyle store at Mulund last year around this time , the 2nd floor has five counters. This year they just had one counter. The salesman when quizzed ,did accept that there is a drastic drop in customers and sales

Big Bazaar, has no different story. They were operating with two counters and not long queues which earlier operated eight counters. Big Bazaar has launched shopping schemes that is drawing customers but not much sales. The same scheme in 2007 March could have doubled the turnovers. ‘Marketing Steroids’ are not working well

The best mall in the country , Inorbit Mall employees had the same views. They were shocked at the drastic drops in customers and sales. Their wide aisles at the Hypercity had few customers.

Aditya Birla retail is likely to shut down around 100 out of 700 stores in the name of rationalization . They are doing a business of Rs. 5 per Sq. Feet and expenses of Rs.200 per Sq. Feet. It is a thumb rule, that such retail formats should not incur more than 120 per sq. Ft.

A month back when i visited the Fame Adlabs at Kharghar to watch the night show for the hit film Fashion, my wife and myself were refused tickets as we were the only two people to watch the movie and the counter girl told us that, she needed at least 5 people to start the show !! Did you expect this in good times !!

Reliance retail is no better, they have changed the strategy for the second time in the last two years and if i remain accurate in my predictions. This time again Reliance will have to redo a lot of things to avoid exiting the retail venture . All these retail majors banked on experienced retail expats . Who themselves wanted to ‘Earn while Learn in India ’ at the cost of these employers.

Some organised retailers are not even in a position to recover their expenses , losses are mounting and credit is moving at an escape velocity not imagined in 2007 !! Money is not available, as earlier even the small companies would value themselves on the lines of the listed companies . With stock market following the Wal-Mart model ( everyday low prices, even Wal street is joked and nick named as Wal-Mart street !!! ).Now there are no takers for these companies . Defaults are increasing day by day. We know the outcome.

Industrial production and growth is slowed . I believe that at this time , for most businesses , survival is the main question and not growth or profits !! . Takeovers will happen or closures. In India , bankruptcy is not practised widely. So we will see closures. The government should keep vigilant on big business houses for accounting and reporting in case they are listed, or we might see a fraud and failure like Enron or WorldCom. This is a step to avoid ‘financial terrorism’ . Some business houses ‘control’ many politicians and this is an area of big concern. We have created unequal wealth in the form of strong and gigantic business houses who are iconic Any wrong doing in such a big business houses would be like a corporate suicide and will severely impact the market scenario. I don’t rule out ‘accounting manipulations’ or ‘jugglery’ in these ‘tough times’ to keep the image and reputation intact for such big business houses.

Even the TATA’s are not able to raise funds , the rights issue was a case in point . DLF , Unitech were rising stars in 2007 are shooting stars now. Projects are delayed and more news is to come in the times ahead.

The Dec 08 quarter results of companies will be disappointing and that will take the shine off the Indian growth and strong fundamentals story.

I urge our politicians to give up the ‘Academic definition’ of recession and accept that we are into a recession and take steps to correct the path going forward .
Let’s see the countries by their GDP and their share in the World GDP. India may not be more than a rounding error at this point !!

2006 GDP USD GDP as % of the world GDP
1.USA 13,201,819 27.3
2. Japan 4,340,133 8.9
3. Germany 2,906,681 6.0
4. China 2,668,071 5.5
5. UK 2,345,015 4.8
6. France 2,230,721 4.6
7. Italy 1,844,749 3.8
8. Canada 1,251,463 2.6
9. Spain 1,223,988 2.5
10. Brazil 1,067,962 2.2
Top Ten Total 33,080,602 68.6
World 48,244,879 100.0

Chinese Consumer spending is to reach USD 1.3 Trillion this year, France USD 1.4 trillion, US economy is USD 9.9 Trillion , India is just 660 Billion according to the Mint Dec 23 , 2008. So if the world’s biggest economies is de-growing and we are dependent on these countries. How can we say that we are not into a recession ??? Are you talking sense Mr.P.C and Mr. Singh ????. Those who buy clothes and other merchandise from US / Europe know well, that all leading brands outsource their production to India , Bangladesh and Sri Lanka . Now that the sales are down, these countries are under sever loss . USA, Japan and Europe account for 68 % of the world GDP and they are into recession. Do we need more reasons to convince ourselves that we are heading towards a more severe recession. Problem started with US , till it ends in the US the problem the world over will continue. The interest rates in USA and Japan have come close to zero. China will get into recession or pass on the pressures to countries like India via dumping cheaper goods to avoid recession. This is one area where India needs to be watchful. US recession will also pass on pressures to nations dependent on its economy

I believe that congress may take to surgical strikes to play with the public sentiment , to dodge the economic issues to come into power. Forgetting , that the parliament attacker is still alive. All these steps should have been taken when parliament was attacked . If then we did not act then, i see no reason to act except for the fact that the elections are near . The government needs to fight many forms of terrorism . i.e. Economic terrorism, militant terrorism ,healthcare terrorism ( seeing that 6000 children die every day below the age of 5 years due to disease and malnutrition ). Few reasons that India might not attack Pakistan are that , we are working with weapons which are Bofors like and secondly , our economy cannot afford to take on a full-fledged war with Pakistan, thirdly, in case we do surgical strikes , Pakistan will drop a nuclear bomb as it is not a nation that honours any pact ( All likelihood , that it will not honour its pack on this as well and quote anything stupid to justify its act.)

India needs to understand the order of world has changed with history. Earlier , the nation with a stronger military was considered stronger , then the nation which was financially stronger was stronger . Future will be for both technically and financially stronger nations . India needs to be financially and technically independent .

New year is not going to be better than 2008. So i don’t know how to wish you for 2009, but i must send my best wishes for hopeful and a pragmatic 2009 that is full of moderation in growth plans , better financial regulation , increased spending from governments , encourage and increase savings for emergencies and a more peaceful 2009

Best wishes

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

Economic forecast for 2009

Posted December 28, 2008 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

If the Indian economy grew at 8 -9 % in 2007-8. I must believe that, about half of this came due to intrinsic or local market factors that is about 4 to 4.5 % . So we will continue with that growth with some downward slide in 2009, and also that the remaining half was due to foreign or extrinsic factors. Which i believe, will reduce by a good 50 % . So intrinsic or internal growth will contribute between 3.5 to 4.5 % and remaining 2- 2.5 % will come from the extrinsic factors . So in all , i guess the next year we will witness growth somewhere around 6.0 to 7.0 %. If the World economies shrink badly , which is expected. This might impact this growth a little more and bring it down under 6.0 %

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

Indian Economy- At the right place under wrong circumstances

Posted January 2, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Indian Economy is in a severe recession: Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Except God, for everything else , i believe in data. Here is what the Honourable PM must consider and restate the fact that actually , India is into a recession

The Tax collections for December quarter dropped by 22 % ( According to the Economic Times dated 27th Dec 2008 )

60 % of the 8000 units into diamond polishing and cutting business went on forced holiday leaving 100,000 people without jobs . Narendra Modi has refused any package for them ( Times of India 27th Dec 2008). There is a 40 % reduction in demand according to Gems and Jewellery Promotion Council ( GJEPC). Exports account for $ 20 billion in the industry

According to ET 01 Jan 2009- Slow down in the leather industry is likely to axe 5 lakh workers in leather units in the next three to four months with worsening market scenario in US and Europe . The industry employs almost 2.5 million people

Jet airways and Jet lite have defaulted in payments of Rs. 32.78 Cr to AAI TOI 29th Dec 08

Hotel occupancy has dropped by 50 % in the holiday season – Sept – Dec 08.

Net profit of India Inc likely to decline by 46 % in the 3rd quarter of this fiscal.

The gross NPA’s of banks will reach 4.7 % of the total loans in FY10 from the current of 2.3 %. Credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %. Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. In the first half of Dec 2008, in Bangalore itself there have been defaults to the tune of Rs.80.23 crore at Corporation Bank . Out of the total home loan portfolio exposure of Rs.1000 cr , 50 % is in the IT sector. Defaults will start increase going forward. We will see the real impact in April 09.

I was recently in Delhi and talked to my cab driver ( he drives for a cab company at Delhi airport ). He informed me that, earlier he would earn between 15 – 22000.00 per month . Now for the last three months , his income has dropped to Rs.6000.00. He is expected to do a minimum of 52 trips a month to get his basic salary , which is getting difficult now . So he was worried.

Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India are via loans. Kotak Mahindra Bank has repossessed about 200 vehicles. Deepak Sachdeva , President of the Delhi Goods Transport association said that between April and December 2008 alone , close to 158000 commercial vehicles were either surrendered or repossessed due to loan defaults. According to The Mint dated Dec 26th 2008. With such an massive loss, just imagine what must be happening to the families of 158000 truck drivers, helpers , cleaners and the people associated with providing services at Dhabas and repairers for these trucks !! It is a solid loss for a small economy like India

All the businesses have cut down the expansion plans and the same will continue for the next year in my view . TATA motors have cut the production for two days a week, Cisco is on long Christmas and a new year holiday, All auto majors including Maruti is slowing or voluntarily suspending production to take care of the ‘standing or piled up’ inventories

ACC cement has already shut the production in one of the plants and slowed the same in others

I visited quite a few malls and talked to employees. At Lifestyle store at Mulund last year around this time , the 2nd floor has five counters. This year they just had one counter. The salesman when quizzed ,did accept that there is a drastic drop in customers and sales

Big Bazaar, has no different story. They were operating with two counters and not long queues which earlier operated eight counters. Big Bazaar has launched shopping schemes that is drawing customers but not much sales. The same scheme in 2007 March could have doubled the turnovers. ‘Marketing Steroids’ are not working well

The news is not good for mall developers. The big retailers who use to easily come as anchor tenants have changed their mind . Now onwards , they will expect the malls to get other tenants before they step in . Earlier, the anchor tenants would come in at a low rental and assure footfalls for the the new tenants. So it was easier to get new tenants . Now the anchor tenants have clearly said no to such anchor tenant proposals thereby putting already troubled mall makers in a spot

The best mall in the country , Inorbit Mall employees had the same views. They were shocked at the drastic drops in customers and sales. Their wide aisles at the Hypercity had few customers.

Aditya Birla retail is likely to shut down around 100 out of 700 stores in the name of rationalization . They are doing a business of Rs. 5 per Sq. Feet and expenses of Rs.200 per Sq. Feet. It is a thumb rule, that such retail formats should not incur more than 120 per sq. Ft.

A month back when i visited the Fame Adlabs at Kharghar to watch the night show for the hit film Fashion, my wife and myself were refused tickets as we were the only two people to watch the movie and the counter girl told us that, she needed at least 5 people to start the show !! Did you expect this in good times !!

Reliance retail is no better, they have changed the strategy for the second time in the last two years and if i remain accurate in my predictions. This time again Reliance will have to redo a lot of things to avoid exiting the retail venture . All these retail majors banked on experienced retail expats . Who themselves wanted to ‘Earn while Learn in India ’ at the cost of these employers. It is learned through credible resources that, Reliance has shut down the Wellness vertical and asked most of its employees to leave . Firing of people is becoming a norm at Reliance

Some organised retailers are not even in a position to recover their expenses , losses are mounting and credit is moving at an escape velocity not imagined in 2007 !! Money is not available, as earlier even the small companies would value themselves on the lines of the listed companies . With stock market following the Wal-Mart model ( everyday low prices, even Wal street is joked and nick named as Wal-Mart street !!! ).Now there are no takers for these companies . Defaults are increasing day by day. We know the outcome.

Industrial production and growth is slowed . I believe that at this time , for most businesses , survival is the main question and not growth or profits !! . Takeovers will happen or closures. In India , bankruptcy is not practised widely. So we will see closures. The government should be vigilant on big business houses for accounting and reporting in case they are listed, or we might see a fraud and failure like Enron or WorldCom. This is a step to avoid ‘financial terrorism’ . Some business houses ‘control’ many politicians and this is an area of big concern. We have created unequal wealth in the form of strong and gigantic business houses who are iconic Any wrong doing in such a big business houses would be like a corporate suicide and will severely impact the market scenario. I don’t rule out ‘accounting manipulations’ or ‘jugglery’ in these ‘tough times’ to keep the image and reputation intact for such big business houses.

Even the TATA’s are not able to raise funds , the rights issue was a case in point . DLF , Unitech were rising stars in 2007 are shooting stars now. Projects are delayed and more news is to come in the times ahead.

The Dec 08 quarter results of companies will be disappointing and that will take the shine off the Indian growth and strong fundamentals story.

I urge our politicians to give up the ‘Academic definition’ of recession and accept that we are into a recession and take steps to correct the path going forward .
Let’s see the countries by their GDP and their share in the World GDP. India may not be more than a rounding error at this point !!

2006 GDP USD GDP as % of the world GDP
1.USA 13,201,819 27.3
2. Japan 4,340,133 8.9
3. Germany 2,906,681 6.0
4. China 2,668,071 5.5
5. UK 2,345,015 4.8
6. France 2,230,721 4.6
7. Italy 1,844,749 3.8
8. Canada 1,251,463 2.6
9. Spain 1,223,988 2.5
10. Brazil 1,067,962 2.2
Top Ten Total 33,080,602 68.6
World 48,244,879 100.0

Chinese Consumer spending is to reach USD 1.3 Trillion this year, France USD 1.4 trillion, US economy is USD 9.9 Trillion , India is just 660 Billion according to the Mint Dec 23 , 2008. So if the world’s biggest economies is de-growing and we are dependent on these countries. How can we say that we are not into a recession ??? Are you talking sense Mr.P.C and Mr. Singh ????. Those who buy clothes and other merchandise from US / Europe know well, that all leading brands outsource their production to India , Bangladesh and Sri Lanka . Now that the sales are down, these countries are under sever loss . USA, Japan and Europe account for 68 % of the world GDP and they are into recession. Do we need more reasons to convince ourselves that we are heading towards a more severe recession. Problem started with US , till it ends in the US the problem the world over will continue. The interest rates in USA and Japan have come close to zero. China will get into recession or pass on the pressures to countries like India via dumping cheaper goods to avoid recession. This is one area where India needs to be watchful. US recession will also pass on pressures to nations dependent on its economy

I believe that congress may take to surgical strikes to play with the public sentiment , to dodge the economic issues to come into power. Forgetting , that the parliament attacker is still alive. All these steps should have been taken when parliament was attacked . If then we did not act then, i see no reason to act except for the fact that the elections are near . The government needs to fight many forms of terrorism . i.e. Economic terrorism, militant terrorism ,healthcare terrorism ( seeing that 6000 children die every day below the age of 5 years due to disease and malnutrition ). Few reasons that India might not attack Pakistan are that , we are working with weapons which are Bofors like and secondly , our economy cannot afford to take on a full-fledged war with Pakistan, thirdly, in case we do surgical strikes , Pakistan will drop a nuclear bomb as it is not a nation that honours any pact ( All likelihood , that it will not honour its pack on this as well and quote anything stupid to justify its act.)

India needs to understand the order of world has changed with history. Earlier , the nation with a stronger military was considered stronger , then the nation which was financially stronger was stronger . Future will be for both technically and financially stronger nations . India needs to be financially and technically independent .

New year is not going to be better than 2008. So i don’t know how to wish you for 2009, but i must send my best wishes for hopeful and a pragmatic 2009 that is full of moderation in growth plans , better financial regulation , increased spending from governments , encourage and increase savings for emergencies and a more peaceful 2009

Best wishes
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President

Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org

Corporte Governance – Just a lip service

Posted January 8, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Also, please read the next blog below titled “Indian Economy- At the right place under wrong circumstances” that talked about the accounting fraud much earlier than the Satyam Fiasco.
Also check the blog that i wrote on 27th Dec 2008. http://rajendrasays.blogspot.com/2008/12/economy-in-severe-recession-government.html
———————————————————————————–

Madhav Mehra
President
World Center for Corporate Governance , U.K .
President
Institute of Directors
India.

Dear Madhav,

Wish you a great 2009.

While i was the Hon. Director at IOD , i had clearly cautioned IOD, that the companies that are getting the award for corporate governance from IOD could be the next Enron’s of the world and i had cautioned Gen.Ahluwalia categorically even quoting some of the recipients

Having said this , i must re-iterate that IOD must be careful in giving out the award to companies who really deserve it after proper scrutiny and due diligence .

I had written earlier on my blog ,much before the Satyam fraud came to light. I ,must emphasize again , that more corporate frauds can’t be ruled out. Though, after this Satyam Fiasco , corporates will be more vigilant before they resort to this route.

After leaving Reliance almost two years ago , i had taken a course in Corporate governance from Kellogg Business School ,USA and decided to pursue independent board positions as my full time professions , much before people focussed on this board positions as a full time profession. Earlier , it was considered as a retired Executives parking slot,. While i took on this lead in India , a lot many people were shocked that i gave up a cushy job in Reliance and decided to pursue independent directorships as my profession. Trust me , i have been very strict with my companies for compliance and disclosures . I clearly insist and minute my issues in the board meetings so that compliance and disclosures are not dealt with lightly ( i can show some of the minutes where i have requested the board members to furnish me the quarterly compliance certificate ). If i find that the companies are not willing or are shying away. I move out of the board and mention the same in my resignations. I did that in the MNC – Medicine Shoppe . Today , we see it on the verge of closure and whatever i wrote to the board members while resigning from the board has happened . I could see that the company was not managed well and there were discrepancies in what the management was presenting to the board every quarter . I could foresee a downfall good two years back and wrote to the board and moved on as i believed that board and the management were not driving the company well.. This is despite the fact, that Medicine Shoppe Intl is a part of the fortune 20 , Cardinal Health, it was the fastest growing retail chain in India and a pioneer in pharmacy retail, adding to this ,the the investors were highly regarded PE players in the country .The country not just needs a strong law and strict guidelines to have independent directors but also the independence of directors . Independent directors and independence of directors is equally important This is not as easy as i write , as i have the experience of a dozen companies and i can understand it well from the independent directors standpoint .This has to be done by SEBI and the government without any further delay. Today, most of the independent directors are chosen from the level of comfort of promoters with the individual . In India , corporate governance is as big an issue as in the US . Only difference that , in USA you have punishments and in India you can get away with ‘ Contacts’ and ‘Payouts’.

This is what i wrote in my blog much before Satyam fiasco came to light http://rajendrasays.blogspot.com/2008/12/economy-in-severe-recession-government.html
.

“The government should be vigilant on big business houses for accounting and reporting in case they are listed, or we might see a fraud and failure like Enron or WorldCom. This is a step to avoid ‘financial terrorism’ . Some business houses ‘control’ many politicians and this is an area of big concern. We have created unequal wealth in the form of strong and gigantic business houses who are iconic Any wrong doing in such a big business houses would be like a corporate suicide and will severely impact the market scenario. I don’t rule out ‘accounting manipulations’ or ‘jugglery’ in these ‘tough times’ to keep the image and reputation intact for such big business houses”

You might like the entire blog at http://rajendragupta.wordpress.com/

It is high time that IOD reconsiders the Corporate governance award model to people who just give up the “award fee” , it must have the options of picking up people besides these applicants. Thus people like Satyam would easily get this award and no wonder that these business houses will pay any amount to get these awards and fool the investors. Seeing the current list of recipients of IOD awards. I am scared that more such names may come to light ! There is more pain in the corporate world in these turbulent times – Just wait to watch

Also, please work on the corporate governance day on 3rd Feb to create the awareness amongst people

All the best ,

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in

Global Recession- An opportunity for India to come out stronger ?

Posted January 19, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
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January 16th, 2009

Dr. Manmohan Singh
Prime Minister &
Minister for Finance
Government of India
New Delhi

Subject: Economic policies and the current turmoil- Recommendations

Dear Dr.Singh,

I am writing this letter to draw your attention to the issues affecting the nation and some practical solutions

On the outset, I wish to place it on record that I am neither a world renowned Economist nor a Nobel Laureate but have spend 12 successful years at the helm of many corporate companies more so because of my approach rather than some other qualification. As an ever lasting student of the corporate world, my focus has been on constant innovations and prioritizations in order to simplify complex situations and search for practical, achievable and sustainable solutions. The spirit and essence of this communiqué flow from these thoughts.
and trust me, if you follow my advice, we can certainly come out of the recession faster and emerge stronger. There are lessons to be learned to make India stronger

Let me clear you that India is in a recession and that we are headed for a severe recession if we don’t take immediate steps. I wish to quote you the following data to enlighten you about the same.

• Exports :According to the President ,Federation of Indian Export Organizations ( FIEO), Mr.A.Sakthvel, 2009 is going to be the worst year in history and the Indian Exporters may cut 10 million jobs by March as the orders are drying up
• Slow down in the leather industry is likely to axe 5 lakh workers in leather units in the next three to four months with worsening market scenario in US and Europe . The industry employs almost 2.5 million people. Ref: The Economic Times dated Jan 2009.
• Tax Collections :The Tax collections for December quarter dropped by 22 % ( Ref: The Economic Times dated 27th Dec 2008 )
• Corporate – Domestic slowdown Net profit of India Inc. likely to decline by almost 46 % in the 3rd Quarter of third fiscal .Ref: The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 08.
• The private sector abandoned projects worth 44 billion in the third quarter of 2008
• Insurance Sector April to Nov 08 , the insurer’s first premium income and number of policies sold were down by 14 % – Ref : The Economic Times dated 3rd Jan 2009
• Banking SectorFor a leading private bank , between Nov and Dec 08 the credit card delinquency increased to 26 %
• The gross NPA’s of banks will reach 4.7 % of the total loans in FY10 from the current of 2.3 %. Credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %. Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. In the first half of Dec 2008, in Bangalore itself there have been defaults to the tune of Rs.80.23 crore at Corporation Bank . Out of the total home loan portfolio exposure of Rs.1000 cr , 50 % is in the IT sector. Defaults will start increase going forward. We will see the real impact in April 09.
• Aviation Sector Jet airways and Jet lite have defaulted in payments of Rs. 32.78 Cr to AAI TOI 29th Dec 08. Airline industry is expected be in deep red this year
• Hospitality Sector The hotel occupancy has dropped by 50 %. Ref : The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 2008
• Diamond Sector 60 % of the 8000 units into diamond polishing and cutting business went on forced holiday leaving 100,000 people without jobs. (Times of India 27th Dec 2008). There is a 40 % reduction in demand according to Gems and Jewellery Promotion Council (GJEPC). Exports account for $ 20 billion in the industry. Ref: The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 2008
• Auto & transport Sector Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India is via loans. Kotak Mahindra Bank has repossessed about 200 vehicles. Deepak Sachdeva, President of the Delhi Goods Transport association said that between April and Dec alone, close to 158000 commercial vehicles were either surrendered or repossessed due to loan defaults. Ref The Mint – Wall street Journal dated Dec 26th 2008
• IT sector is likely to lay off 50,000 people in the next 6 months. Already layoffs are happening across sectors

Let’s look back as to why we have had a problem ? We built an economy on dollars, FDI and stock market and not on 600 million people who live on 2.5 USD a day. We have tried to compete with China or serve the developed world. The outsourcing business is not build on merits other than low costs of human capital. We don’t have a lasting story if we bank on cheap labour only!! We need to capitalize on our resources internally and not become a body shopping country. But till now, we have let others capitalize on our strengths. You will have to change this. Common minimum programme has to be Common man’s programme

India has always been a land of ‘Rishi’ and ‘Krishi’. We forgot this aspect of India. We still have not done much for the farmers of this nation. We know for sure that 18 % of the GDP (agriculture) supports 60 % of the population. Kamal Nath believes that this might not be possible. I must correct him. What we need is value addition to agriculture and connecting the value chain of agriculture business to farmers at the place of produce. We need to think more about farmers producing cash crops besides staple crop. We need to increase the value of 18 %. We must note that 80 % farms in India are smaller than 5 acres. From 1971-96, the average size of the farms has reduced from 2.3 to 1.4 acres. Whilst, in the developing countries the average farm size has decreased, same has increased in developed world.

Having given the above mentioned data let me inform you that in abnormally tough times you cannot take routine decisions. Baby steps would not help. Severe crisis needs several big interventions. You need to take drastic steps. Some of which i am putting for your immediate consideration

Just lowering the interest rate or some small duty cuts would not raise the morale of the countrymen. This is a crisis of comfort and confidence both. You are testing waters by lowering the rates in monthly reviews and at intervals. Not realising that that these SOPS in instalments are deteriorating the economy and the morale of the people is suffering as time is passing. We are drifting in the ‘quick sand of recession’. Please consider, people do not buy because a particular product or service is cheap. But the buying decision is dependent on certainty of income and availability of cheap capital coupled with host of other social and market factors. Seeing what is happening in the country, i don’t see a positive mood till you take drastic steps like,

1. Replace the portfolio of Minister of Finance with the Minister for economic development
2. Have a dedicated secretariat to monitor the economic indicators and look to prevent surprises and signal disasters much in advance- in short to do a overall risk assessment across sectors in the economy. They should have no other job than to forecast and warn against the impending threats to the economic growth
3. Have a dedicated minister for modern agriculture practices
4. Dedicate a separate ministries for each innovation ,poverty alleviation and PPP- Public Private partnerships . PPP must be encouraged in all sectors
5. Economic policies should be more inward looking than foreign dependent
6. Tax rates must be reduced for individuals in one go and in a massive manner and not in instalments
7. Fuel rates should be reduced immediately and be made market driven
8. We need to focus and take immediate steps for setting up Agri and processed foods SEZ on an urgent basis.
9. Announce incentives for organic farming.
10. Announce incentives for tourism
11. Government must give big push to vocational training and employment for students
12. Increase recruitment for teachers , police and other government staff
13. Scholarships for education and R&D must be given
14. Lower the bank interest rates for corporate lending to around 9 % at one go.
15. Home loan rates be immediately reduced to 7.5 % for amount up to Rs. 5 lac, 8 % above 5 Lac till 20 Lac, 8.5 % for amount above Rs. 20 lac till Rs.50 Lac and 9 % for amounts above Rs. 50 Lac. The customers must be allowed to get these at fixed rates and not floating rates for a period of 20 years. Construction boom will increase activity in a lot of infrastructure industries like construction workers, cement, iron and steel and paints etc. which will add to the economy in a big way. All these must be lowered in one go rather in instalments
16. While you give incentives to the infrastructure , you must appoint a housing regulator to bring in confidence of a fair play amongst the investors
17. Government must build houses for weakest sections of the society to be leased on rentals and not be sold
18. Banks must be mandated for giving loans to students for vocational courses without any guarantor .This will lead to enhancement of skills and employment and the loan amounts will be small. Plus the bank will secure the loans as the students cannot get the job without clearance from banks !! So safer loans. People can earn and pay along
19. IT sector must focus on agriculture sector & education– This one step will take India to a better placed economy
20. Big corporates must be mandated to outsource 2.5 % of their requirement to SSI (Small scale industries).
21. Encourage Small scale industries and incentivise them by making them tax free for 3 years
22. SSI based SEZ must be considered for every state
23. Agriculture and food processing SEZ must be established near ports and in every state
24. Don’t transform Mumbai to Shanghai. Create more Mumbai’s in India. Have realistic goals
25. Remove bureaucratic hurdles to set up small businesses like removing multiple approvals. Let it be a single window clearance for setting up a shop or small business

We must be focussed on servicing our population and not be dependent on globalization. We have learned now that building an economy based on just FDI will not be a stable economy. We need to learn a lesson from the BJP’s Swadeshi strategy. Albeit in a different manner. Let the financing be local and focus on intrinsic industries. Agriculture, and SSI is good enough to give stable growth to the economy

Unchecked capitalism has failed in USA . Now America is fast moving towards being a socialistic economy – American government is funding and buying into big defaulting and bankrupt corporations thus socialising the economy. It is clear that you can’t build a great economy on capitalist lines. I have my serious doubts on Barack being able to revive US capitalist economy. In India, we have only four five major corporates in a land of a billion people. This indicates that the policies of the government have favoured or controlled by a privileged few !! This needs to be changed immediately. Encourage entrepreneurship and SSI in an institutionalised manner and support them.

Give a push to communication, Infrastructure, healthcare, education and PPP to grow India to the next level. Have a robust pension system and a culture of long term investments and savings. This is critical to avoiding America like defaults and disaster

I must also take you through the US failure and where it might head for. The failure of America is due to lack of culture of savings and greedy & unnatural growth strategies. It is the start of the historical shift of power equation. Historically, Greek & Roman empires dominated the world. Then came the turn of Britain that controlled the world , It shifted the power equation to USSR & USA. Now it is the USA. Future undoubtedly is of China. If you care to correct the situation with drastic measures, India will be back in to glory by the year 2020 as the world’s top most power.

We have faltered due to our myopic policies. You have the opportunity to change this nation’s future by taking appropriate measures or get caught in the web of political compulsions or electoral policies. Needless to mention, peace is a precondition to progress.

See the date of different states, this tells us a lot. I have arranged in ascending order w.r.t. population

S. No State Population Per capita net state domestic product in INR No. of M.P.’s
Lok Sabha No. of M.P’s Rajya Sabha No. of Assembly seats
1 Lakshadweep 60650 N.A. 1
2 Daman & Diu 1.58 Lac NA 1
3 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 2.2 Lac N.A. 1
4 Andaman & Nicobar 3.56 Lac 28340 ( 2002-3) 1
5 Sikkim 5.4 Lac 21586 (2003-4) 1 1 32
6 Mizoram 8.88 Lac 22207 (2002-3) 1 1 40
7 Chandigarh 9 Lac 57621 (2003-4) 1
8 Poducherry 9.74 Lac 50936 (2003-4) 1 1 30
9 Arunachal Pradesh 11 Lac 17393 ( 2003-4) 2 1 60
10 Goa 13.47 Lac 53092 (2002-3) 2 1 40
11 Nagaland 19 Lac 18911 (2001-2) 1 1 60
12 Manipur 21.66 Lac 14766 (2003-4) 2 1 60
13 Meghalaya 23.18 Lac 18135 (2003-4) 2 1 60
14 Jharkhand 26.9 Lac 12509 (2003-4) 14 6 81
15 Tripura 31 Lac 18676 (2002-3) 2 1 60
16 Himachal Pradesh 60 Lac 24903 (2003-4) 4 3 68
17 Uttaranchal 84 Lac 13260 (2001-2) 5 3 70
18 J&K 1 Crore 13320 ( 2001-2) 6 4 87
19 Delhi 1.38 Crore 51.664 (2003-4) 7 3 70
20 Chhattisgarh 2.0 Crore 14863 ( 2003-4) 11 5 90
21 Haryana 2.11 Crore 29963 ( 2003-4) 9 5 90
22 Punjab 2.4 Crore 27851 (2003-4) 13 7 117
23 Assam 2.65 Crore 13139 ( 2003-4) 14 7 126
24 Kerala 3.18 Crore 24492 ( 2003-4) 19 9 140
25 Orissa 3.68 Crore 12388 (2003-4) 21 10 147
26 Gujarat 5 Crore 26979 ( 2003-4) 26 11 182
27 Karnataka 5.28 Crore 21696 (2003-4) 28 12 225
28 Rajasthan 5.60 Crore 15486 (2003-4) 25 10 200
29 M.P. 6 Crore 14011 (2003-4) 29 11 230
30 Tamilnadu 6.2 Crore 23358 (2003-4) 39 18 234
31 Andhra Pradesh 7.6 Crore 20,757 (2003-4) 42 18 295
32 West Bengal 8 Crore 20896 (2003-4) 42 16 294
33 Bihar 8.29 Crore 5780 ( 2003-4) 40 16 243
34 Maharashtra 9.68 Crore 29204 (2003-4) 47 19 288
35 Uttar Pradesh 16.61 Crore 10817 (2003-4) 80 31 403

I must also advice that you convince your colleagues on increasing the salary of M.P.’s, and this is one thing that they might or might not agree. 545 Member of parliaments run this country. Let them have the best salaries. I will recommend for them salaries starting Rs.2.5 Crores with a larger bonus on performance. Reasonable cause for this high salary is that;

1. We will get the best brains drawn to politics
2. Public will not let incompetent people to be elected to such ‘high paying offices’ and public outcry will question non performance for the high salaries
3. Bribes ‘might’ stop
4. People taking such salaries will have guilt if they did not deliver (at least we can hope so !!).

Recently, I interviewed more than 100 students of a top internationally renowned management institution at Mumbai and was both happy and felt at a loss. I am glad that we have a logical and a responsible youth contrary to media perception. But i felt sorry that, they are lacking proper guidance and so they are disillusioned. We must unleash the power of youth, more so, of women power. Then only we will begin a new era of growth.

Recession is equally big an opportunity as robust economic growth.

Economic Forecast for 2009: If the Indian economy grew at 8 -9 % in 2007-8. I must believe that, about half of this came due to intrinsic or local market factors that is about 4 to 4.5 % . So we will continue with that growth with some downward slide in 2009, and also that the remaining half was due to foreign or extrinsic factors. Which i believe, will reduce by a good 50 % . So intrinsic or internal growth will contribute between 3.5 to 4.5 % and remaining 2- 2.5 % will come from the extrinsic factors. So in all , i guess this year we will witness growth somewhere around 6.0 to 7.0 %. If the World economies shrink badly , which is expected, this might impact this growth a little more and bring it down well under 6.0 %

You will not be remembered for how you managed the crisis of the 90’s but how you manage 09. That time, we were alone in the crisis and compulsions left with you with only one option. Now it is a Global crisis . Only intelligent and effective leadership can work. I see so many opportunities and endless possibilities. Hope see that as well. Good Luck !

Dr.Singh, we cannot drive our car looking at other cars rear view mirror. We must drive our car from within and people cannot steer it from outside. This has a message for you. Look inside and drive India to glory, out of recession

I hope i have made a point

Best regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
Mobile: 09323109456 / 9867300045

Satyam Saga- Many heads may tumble. Raju’s life might be in danger

Posted January 30, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
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Rajendra Pratap Gupta

The satyam saga is not as simple as people believe . My personal view is, that it happened due to the political comfort Raju enjoyed with all the powers that are at play. More specifically , all the A.P. Governments be it of CBN or YSR..

I am sure that, this dirty trail will pull out many political skeletons. And if this is bound to happen, Raju’s life might be in danger . No A.P. politician would like to be named when elections are just a few weeks away. I fear that Raju might be eliminated in the name of a heart attack

The center must interrogate , investigate and keep the custody of Raju out of Andhra . But as we know, that our courageous politicians , corrupt agencies working under political influence and control, inefficient judiciary and biased press will not let the truth be out for the common man. That is what is called the CMP – Common Minimum Programme !!

Government has given mobilizing advance to Maytas infra. What steps have been taken to build safeguards for the two thousand Crores given as mobilising advance ? It is well understood that government has a cut in every such deal. Rajiv Gandhi once said that, out of every rupee meant for poor , 15 paisa reaches the poor. In ( political – business ) deals , poor are our politicians and they demand much more than 15 paisa out of every rupee in the name of the party and themselves – They have no shame – Remember Bangaru Laxman ?. How come suddenly a news paper cartoonist like Bal Thackeray and his entire clan run deals worth hundreds of Crores !! A poor man when becomes a saviour of the poor ( read politician ) suddenly becomes rich ?? I recall a quote- A Politician is one, who extracts votes and money from the rich and poor on the pretext of protecting each from the other !!

A few days back, I was talking to one of my friends who has access to the powers at the center. I was shocked to learn , that planning commission does not issue money to the states till there is a guarantee for the portion of the money being returned for fighting elections. If the grapevine is to be believed , this amount per state runs into thousand crore plus !!! That’s why when you complain about corruption , no one listens, as all the powers are deeply involved into it either at the front end or at the backend . Corruption is the politician’s only religion . Corruption is a trickling down process and is like rain water . It comes from the top and not the other way round !

While a lot of people are looking at bringing about a change in the governance of the nation . But trust me , it will not happen soon. Reason is, that there are only less than 5 percent of people who read and get frustrated about the current state of affairs ; unfortunately, they don’t even vote . So frustration alone will not change this system.. Rest 95 percent are victims and partners by force to such an ‘illegal democratic System’. The corruption is “institutionalised business” to such an extent that you and i cannot imagine as honest individuals . A Member of parliament. has to pay for becoming an M.P. then he has to collect the same money ( with returns ) from business houses, IAS & IPS officers in the name of getting things done !! A low level clerk or the hawaldaar / constable has to be pay for his posting and lucrative transfer . At the end , i and you have to pay for all this as bribe. This is my definition of the current democracy – a totally manipulated system by the politicians , for the influential at the cost of the common man.

Those of us who think that we can change it by mere lighting a candle or filing an PIL. Just go and check how many election commissioners , retired judges that have given favourable judgements are in plum postings post retirement ? why did Chief Election Commissioner T.N.Sesan not become a Union minister and Mr.Gill become a union minister ? Why do IPS officers , Judges become governors of states after retirement ? Many such cases exists. Just peep into the past. You might have all answers. Why does the CBI need a permission from the government for prosecuting the officers or M.P.’s ? Simply to delay and bid time . Anyways, an average Indian is so lost in daily chores that he/she doesn’t have time to get ‘involved’ in ‘such issues’ . Votes that the ‘intellectuals’ like us give does not exceed 3 % .Mostly, we don’t even go to vote. Majority of the people who vote for these corrupt politicians decide not on the basis of good governance, but whether his wives get a saree and the family gets a sumptuous meal a few days till the voting day. These are the 600 million innocent and exploited people who for almost next five years after elections will go to bed empty stomach every day. They cannot practice our principles ! And the politicians don’t wish them to prosper . If these 600 million people prosper and come out of poverty, corrupt people like Lalu Yadav, Shibo Soren, Mulayam Singh , Amar Singh, Sharad Pawar and many more would not be rubbing shoulders with Sonia or Manmohan or dreaming to be union ministers !! We all know why Ashwariya got the Padmshri award ? Simply because Amar and his gang have bailed out the congress ? Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi talk about democracy in the nation . If Rahul was not Gandhi would he become the Gen.Secy of the congress so soon ? When the party itself is against democracy and decides the top posts based on sycophancy , favouritism and dictatorship how can it guarantee democracy to the nation ? Why are we getting fooled. I would go to an extent of writing that Manmohan would have been forced for the cardiac surgery . So that if by chance , Congress comes to power. On health grounds , Manmohan can be retired and Rahul can step in to lead the nation to disaster ! Anyways, the Gandhi dynasty has ruled the nation for 90 % of the time since Independence . Earlier , they can be credited with ‘license raj’ and now ‘quota raj’ . Both the steps led them to manipulate and come to power but weakened he nation and divided it . We have gone backward than becoming developed . Elections have never been fought for good governance . It has been fought to stay in power. The priorities are misplaced totally. Last five years into power they had all to develop an indigenous growth model for India . But they went on to build a dollar based economy and gave us recession to live with . What a colossal failure for Sonia , Manmohan and PC !!

Don’t expect the system to change soon . A new cult has to come up from the youth , specially women who will have to lead another mass movement to make it happen. And it cannot happen if you read this and still decide to sit back and go into thinking mode.

We must get up to action .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Email: mail@rajendragupta.org
rajendra.india@gmail.com

Address to the Journalists who covered the Mumbai Terror Strike on Nov 26,2008

Posted February 3, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

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This is the text of the speech delivered to over 100 Journalists who were Felicitated recently at a function organized on Feb 2nd 2009 at Mumbai.
Good Evening Friends,

We all are glad to have ‘brave hearts’ with us today and we feel proud of you. In fact, on 26th November, i was awaiting to board the flight at the New Jersey airport for Mumbai when i got a call from my friend with whom i had the lunch that afternoon. He sounded worried and said, Rajendra, my God, did you see what is happening in Mumbai? I asked him? What do you mean Nailesh? He said terrorist have taken over Taj and Hilton hotels and a police Commissioner has been shot dead. It sent shudders down my spine. I had heard about Akshardham temple but now, it was my very own Mumbai .I walked to the nearest TV screen at the airport. I was shocked. I could watch all this thousands of miles away as you all staked your lives and kept sending the live footage. This held the nation captive for three days to the television sets. After the freedom movement, this was the first time that united the communities and the nation.
Press has always played an important role in nation building and society.
How many of you know how the democratic movement started? It was with the Introduction of printing press in mid 15th century in Europe, the proliferation of printed information helped fuel the rise of democracy. So my journalist friends, when you started the democratic movement, you will also have to safeguard the same.
After this November 26 terror strike, a lot many politicians have lost their jobs and so a debate has started on whether press should have shown everything live. I strongly believe that, since the press was showing it live, and that the whole nation was watching it, those who were fighting the battle with terrorists performed to their very best. Else, we could have lost many more lives. You all in fact, pushed the forces for their best performance . Freedom of press should not be compromised .I would go to the extent of requesting to the government to even make the sting operations legal and give immunity to the press for bringing such issues to the public . Most of the development and progress that you see in India today, is due to two reasons ; first, cheap telecommunications and second, proliferation of the Media. Media has opened the eyes and ears of the common man.
Now coming to the root cause of terrorism: Remember that each of the terrorist had 400 USD. Intelligence agencies took weeks to figure out why only 400 USD was in each pocket. This is exactly the amount you require to pay to enter your boat or jetty into the Indian waters. Our national security is priced at USD 400 ? If we stand at the Vashi check post , the price is down to 500 rupees. You can get your truck into Mumbai by just slipping a Rs.500 note at the check post
“Unemployment, uncertainty & frustration amongst the youth coupled with corruption in the government and administrative inefficiency is the root cause of terrorism and you just cannot fight it with sophisticated weapons alone” .
Terrorism survives and thrives on political and systemic corruption and inefficiency .
Remember,
When trust fails, people resort to justice
When justice fails, people resort to power
When power fails, people resort to violence
India has already slipped into an economic recession .Thousands are becoming jobless every week. This will increase criminalization and health problems.
How can we help fight terrorism? We must have a nationwide ‘Neighbourhood program’. Where every 50 or 100 people in a locality form groups and spend 4 hours a week for community work. This way, we will be able to watch and ward out suspicious people and help build closer ties within the community and will be more active to serve the community and the nation better
Why did Country First decide to honour our Brave hearted journalists? Today we only recognise the contribution when someone dies, but rarely during their lifetime. You all could have been hit by hundreds of bullets getting fired. But you decided to stay there , track this terrorist strike at the cost of your lives. Police had weapons, all you had is just a camera & the conviction and courage to stand there without caring for yourself in the interest of this nation – that is Country First ! Some of you had a near death experience .We must recognise your contribution. So we are here today
Hat’s off to you !
Jai Hind!
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email : President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org
Mobile :+91 9323109456 / 9867300045

FDI in Retail

Posted February 17, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Uncategorized

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Dated : February 16th, 2009

Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Chairman
Parliamentary Committee on Commerce
New Delhi

Ref : Foreign Direct Investment in Retail Sector

Dear Dr.Joshi,

I wish to draw your attention to the following for a postive consideration and further recommendations.

There has been a lot of debate about the opening of the retail sector for foreign direct investment

My view is , that the retail sector in India is a major employer and is the key to India’s youth employment and empowerment . It today comprises of about 12 million establishments . Adding to this, there are atleast 2 helpers at a retail outlet. Further , indirect employment is provided to at least 6 people

With such a massive employment potential . We must consider the following before we talk of FDI in retail sector

1. Why should foreign brands take away India’s earnings ? Land is ours, employees are ours, spending is ours , raw material is ours. Then why do we allow foreign co’s take away our earnings by just putting their brand names ?

2. It is a known fact that, most of the reputed brands all across the wordl manufacture their products in India sub continent and sell across the World . The products are of highest international quality and well accepted . Why do we not sell locally and serve the local economy as well

3. It is well known that this big foreign MNC’s change the rules of the game by increasing rentals , salaries and lowering prices or even increasing them . Thereby , making it difficult for the localites to operate . We cannot regulate all this , but for sure , we can check the entry of these MNC gaints

4. What the retailers in India need is a different version of FDI – Finance from Domestic Institutions . If we get finance from domestic finance intitutions , we will be more competitive and we can grow profitably and grow even internationally . Indian products are already sold in differne parts of the world

5. I also suggest you to consider and recomend that retail be given an ‘industry status’ and there should be a separate ministry for retail and vocational training . That also takes care of re-skilling of the talent . We have a sever skill gap that needs to be immediately addressed

Hope that your good selves will consider my suggestions and incorporate with your recommendations

Looking forward to hear from you

Thanks again with high regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Mobile : +91 9323109456
+91 9867300045
Email: president@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org

Indian Government is clueless about the Economic Crisis – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted February 19, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

India is clueless about how to resolve the current economic crisis?
For over a year, the world has been sliding into the grip of recession. First it was America, then Europe and now Japan. It was naive of our Harvard and Oxford educated FM & PM to keep denying that India would not be affected from the crisis. They kept shouting that India was fundamentally strong and that the crisis would not impact the Indian economy. Even after issuing a ‘Token Bailout’ package the Congress government believed India was better compared to the rest of the crisis affected economies. But of late, congress has accepted the fact that 2009 would be worse.
The height of irresponsibility and lack of knowledge is evident from the fact that Indian Government also did what America was doing i.e. issue a bailout package. India should have acted differently. But why apply brains? Just copy what USA is doing – copying others is the biggest folly of our selfish and mindless politicians !! Way back in August 2008, i wrote for Financial Express supplement – SME World about the impending crisis. This article got published in November 08 issue of the magazine (download the original article from www.rajendra.collectivex.com ). But the contents were very much available on my blogs much earlier. I had clearly mentioned that the crisis in India started much earlier and the government was a silent spectator. It did nothing to correct it. Now it is acting posthumously. The moment banks started hiring recovery agents , the crisis has started. After all , banks don’t hire recovery agent for small NPA’s.
I see quite a few reasons for this illogical and irresponsible bailout step. Why should bailout be avoided and what did the current government to the economy. Listing a few view points
• Indian government and our foreign educated PM & FM are totally clueless about the crisis , so leave alone management of the crisis
• They quickly hired foreign experts in their advisory council. Irony is that these foreign experts have rarely stayed in India and know little about the realities on the ground. Adding to this , they had the so called Knowledge commission , P.M’s advisory council, Economic advisory council and many such sinecure posts to keep the sycophants and power hungry corrupt people on benches on our tax payers money
• Political compulsions & uncertainty keep the government & the public guessing for the future moves and the markets will never gather momentum
• Real issues have not been addressed so far, and i don’t see any signs of revival in the economy with such an irrelevant approach to this crisis which will worsen with time passing
Now let’s examine what the government is doing:
• Pumping more liquidity in the banking system
• Decreasing interest rates
• Announcing sops for exporters
• Announcing increase in NREGA scheme
• Making tall statements of strong fundamentals etc…..
Now let’s see what each of the above mentioned steps would lead to:
• Putting more liquidity in the system. But Indian financial system was never cash strapped, Banks were growing very well. We have enough of money available! Now, the bank and financial institutions are becoming risk averse. Who trusts these crooked politicians? If the banks dole out loans and they turn out to be NPA’s. Manmohan and PC Would be gone by then , and the poor branch manager or the M.D. of the bank will become the scapegoat. So in as much as these measures are announced with much fanfare, the implementation is poor. No one is trusting each other. It is a ‘crisis of lack of trust and transparency in our System’. PM can increase liquidity by repo rate cut, but he cannot force the local branch manager of State Bank of India to start lending tomorrow from 9.30 AM till 5.30 P.M. Imagine, even if this was a reality. Would you and i take this loan? For what & Why? We are concerned about the uncertainty of income and job. Liquidity in the system is not the remedy, right? So clearly, government is not taking the right step as it does not know or acknowledge the problem in reality. Today, even corporates like TATA are finding it difficult to raise money. Let’s see why? TATA’s went overboard, and brought big businesses abroad for billions of dollars, and mostly, in all cash deals!! Wrong strategy? When they brought these companies, the stock markets were racing around 20000. Their stocks were really valuable. Had they done a cash and stock deal for all its acquisitions, they would have been better off even when the markets tanked. Now for the price they brought Land Rover and Jaguar, they could have bargained to buy the entire company!!! Any ways, the companies that owned these brands are fast becoming history or getting bailouts and kind of getting nationalised or filing for bankruptcy. Same is the case with Arcelor Mittal. What a deal it was. Now the question is, was it structured in the right manner?? Wait for another quarter, Iconic Ambani’s are likely to tell a similar story. Indian systemic corruption has created mammoth business houses, and the future of this natural imbalance is a foregone conclusion. It was just a coincidence that Satyam got caught. No big corporate can exist without political patronage, and this political patronage comes at a price in cash and with moral flexibility . Satyam is just the tip of the Iceberg. Each and every corporate has shady spots somewhere or the other. Difference is that they have not been caught like Satyam.
• Lowering interest rates: Still the loan port folio of financial institutions is not increasing. Reason , people believe that companies due to drop in sales going forward, and increasing inventory pile up, will dole out better discounts and so are deferring the buying decisions, till the prices drop further. The recession has taught people that, cash in hand is better than ‘Notional money’ in real estate etc…. People are pretty sure that times ahead will not be easy. Assume for a while that, even if the corporates go for taking a loan and increasing the production. Who will bring the buyers? People are in no mood for discretionary spending. All in all, lowering interest rates is also not working in isolation. The problem is totally different and not getting addressed here at all. In today’s tour economy is akin to cycling, either we are peddling or we will fall!
• Announcing Sops for exporters: Suppose, i am an exporter and i am exporting to USA, Europe and Russia. My order books have dried up as the economy is headed for trouble in these countries. Will Sops help me bring orders? Is this not an eye wash for the public? Sops will only work when orders start pouring in. This is again a misfired weapon.
• Announcing increase of funds for NREGA (National rural employment guarantee Scheme) Schemes: This scheme was already in place. We have never been able to quantify the positive impact of this scheme on poverty alleviation. Albeit , our politicians have become richer ! We all know the fake musters made and the amount eaten by the babu’s and ministers. What poor need is not money, but training to earn money consistently. It is like if you feed fish to poor; you can feed him fish a few times, better teaching him how to fish and he can earn for himself every day. How long will NREGA spend our hard earned money on feeding people? This is a misguided and misplaced scheme. What we need is a NYVTS – National Youth Vocational Training Scheme & NRSS – National Re-Skilling scheme – to re-skill and retrain people in better earning vocations and not NREGA. We must create – SEZ’s – Skilled Entrepreneur Zone in every tehsil / district to empower the rural –real India. Still 68 % of the population lives outside urban India. Mind you, urban poor are worse off than rural poor. What schemes are meant for them?

Solution to the Crisis:

Essence of this is that printing & pushing ‘Notional money’ in the system is not the solution. It is an illusionary step. Creation of money by the hands of people is the right solution. How will that happen? I believe that government (Even the US Govt.) should not have resorted to bailouts. If Lehrman Brothers collapsed, it collapsed. So what? Let all the financial institutions and auto majors be left to meet within themselves and come out with a solution. They could have formed a practical consortium to deal with the problem, shared resources and planned a better crisis management. Now each of these corporates will get a bailout package, they will go out on the rampage with cut throat Competition and crisis will aggravate, a few of the bailed out companies will eventually cease to exit. We are just giving a palliative care through bailouts. Competition and collaboration are two ways to save the economy. We need collaboration now. Today the government is patronizing inefficiency and paying the price for poor regulation as bailouts and it will cost it dearly.
Even after the bailout, i fail to understand, how 16 or 25 billion dollars will save General Motors? About a year back , GM had about 30 billion dollar as cash and it was burning billions of dollars every month and finally they fell on the knees.People are not going to buy a Chevy due to the fact that the GM motors has a government bailout plan and package! History was a witness to Enron collapse, World Comm collapse, and IT Sector bust after the boom. Well that’s in a business cycle. All that goes up comes down. If the government wanted to do well. It could definitely take some practical steps like.
• Put a moratorium on corporate , housing and other loan EMI’s for the next 3 years or part payment instead of full EMI’s for the next 2-3 years a nominal interest be added, so that even banks do not suffer loss. But public should be relieved of the burden of payments substantially and immediately
Automobile industry should be happy as the crude oil is cheaper. What the government could do is to step in and make the cab drivers replace taxi’s older than 10 years by a bank loan for 10 years duration at reduced interest rates like 7.5 % for any duration i.e. fixed rate of interest for the entire term of the loan . The duties and other taxes should be cut by 50 % for all the taxi’s that are older than 10 years, by 75 % for vehicles that are more than 5 years to less than 10 year old. Would this not boost both the auto industry and the banks? Also, this would increase collection of the government as road tax. Which could be reduced by a good 50 % for all purchases made in the next three years? It would boost a whole lot of industries associated with Auto , fuel, Iron and steel , rubber , etc …….Make the small car ‘Nano’ and the ‘electric car & scooters’ totally duty free . Any ways, the government collections are down. At least, here it will not lose anything, but only gain as whatever taxes it can collect directly. But indirect collection of taxes will get a boost as a host of activities will increase with this push. It will lead to substantial increase in employment
Business and Real estate : Service tax on rental be abolished , Increase the tax slab for interest payments to Rs.2 lacs, issue home loans at fixed rate of interest from 7 % till 8.5 % for any amount of time . Appoint immediately a Housing regulator to check inflated real estate cost and check the cartelization to keep the prices low. One thing that government can do is that, all buildings under construction and not sold, in those buildings, 70% of the units can be sold and remaining 30 % have to be rented only. Government must construct flats & shops for poor and low income groups for rental occupancy only. This will not only boost the demand but also keep the real estate prices low. The stamp duty and other government charges should be reduced by about 50 %. Any ways, government is not making any money due to poor or nil demand in real estate sector. 50 % taxes would be good enough at this point in time. Even the biggest real estate company by market cap, DLF has reduced the prices of their projects due to poor sales and their prices have dropped by a good 32 % in one of the Bangalore projects. Most of the real estate co’s are abandoning the projects.
Alternative Energy: Wind power and solar power is to be immediately pursued in every house hold, town & district. This can be financed by banks and will lead to a cleaner and greener countryside and improve the economy and generation of power for households and communities
SME: this sector is contributing to just 39 % of the manufacturing output. In developed economies, this sector contributes about 90 % of the manufacturing output. Government needs to push this sector into growth mode by setting up nodal growth centres for SME’s manned by professionals from the corporate world. Setting up incubation centres in major national & regional institutes for providing technical support and professional guidance. For detail steps , read the article that i have recently written for The Financial Times supplement – SME World
Transport & Logistics: Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India is via loans. According to Deepak Sachdeva , President of the Delhi Goods Transport association , between April and December alone, close to 158000 commercial vehicles were repossessed or either surrendered due to loan defaults. This impacts the employment of drivers, helpers and host of other people who run the road side businesses dependent on the truck movements. We need to incentivise these set of people and relieve them from the loan burden with moratorium on EMI payments. Reduce tax on road permits , remove penalty for late payments of EMI for up to 2 years . Octoroi tax must be abolished immediately.
Agriculture: The government needs to push this sector with more reforms and technical innovations considering that more than 80 % of the farms are of small size holdings less than five acres. We need to bring a sigh of relief to these farmers by host of measures
These are just a few of the steps that government can start with. Rest later

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
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Kamalnath Says, Worst for the Economy is over !- Is he in senses ?? Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted March 4, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
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Worst for the economy is over – Senior Congress Minister – Fooling Indians to vote ???

On 28th December 2008, I had written on this blog, that the GDP growth will be less than 6 % , I had also given the reasons as to why it would fall below 6 % for sure, when the government was firm that GDP growth would be 7.1 %. The fact is out now , and we our GDP has grown as low as 5.3 % in the Q3, 2008.

We will have lacs of suicides from job losers ! Earlier it was the farmers , now it will corporate people and workers who will commit suicides or commit crimes or suffer a nervous break-down. Why are we sleeping now . We just have 45 days – Please check the congress score card on my blog , They are a bunch of inefficient & dishonest people ! Can we entrust them our nation ?

As per the latest data ,

• India had an external debt of $221.3 Bn at the end of June 2008, 20 % of it is the short term debt, this will be hurt badly due to weak rupee .
• NRI deposits declined by as much as 1.1 Bn USD at the end of June 2008 compared to end – March 08 level.
• India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by 62.35 Billion dollars to 249.53 Bn USD as on Feb 20, 2008 from 311.88 Billion as on April 4, 2008.
• Agriculture is reporting negative growth at -2.2 % in Q3 , 2008,
• Exports have plummeted and people in export oriented companies are being fired every minute
• Industrial production is at a record low
• Fiscal deficit is highest since independence
• Sensex is at a record low in the last 40 months , Investors have lost more than 2/3rd of their investments
• Real estate sector is facing worst crisis ever
• GDP fell to 5.3 % in Q3 , 2008
• Rupee is weakest at about Rs.52 to a dollar
• Tax collections and revenue earners for government are dipping every day due to the above mentioned factors

Is what we call an economy of strong fundamentals ? When US , Europe and Japan sank into recession, immediately our growth story withered away, and we had been fooled to believe that India had strong fundamentals and we will not be affected . Is this not severe recession ?

At the top of all this , our learned writer of the book ‘India’s Century’ & also our Union trade and commerce Minister , Kamalnath had said just 3 days ago, that the ‘Worst time for the economy is over’. And just three days after the rupee is about 52 to the dollar and the sensex is on its 40 months low !! How clueless is our Union Minister ? Do we give such people to run our trade and commerce for the next five years ? If his words cannot last even a week , how come he writes a book on India’s century ?

We are into an unprecedented crisis , if we let congress win , I am sure that some of us will not even survive to vote !!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
President@countryfirst.org
Mob: +91-9323109456

Difficulty viewing the blogs ?- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted March 4, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Some of the tables get jumbled . Please check the following link to see it correctly –

http://rajendrasays.blogspot.com/

A must read for all

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Mobile:
India + 91 9323109456
India + 91 9867300045
USA + 515-450-6165
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Email: mail@rajendragupta.org
rajendra .india@gmail.com
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Youth and Women hold the key to success in 2009 Elections- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted March 6, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Youth, Women, Minorities and Regional parties hold the key to success.

In the last twenty five years, the electoral dynamics has changed. It is easier to understand and a challenge to manage. One who can manage will form the government at the center.

Let’s have a look:

According to 2009 electoral rolls, women are in majority in six states Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Poducherry.

• Andhra has 2.86 crore women compared to 2.80 crore men

• Kerala has 1.11 crore women compared to 1.03 crore men

• Manipur has 8.97 lac women compared to8.29 lac men

• Poducherry has 3.91 Lac women compared to 3.63 lac men

• Tamilnadu , Daman , Diu had more registered women than men

Also we must carefully understand the implications of these statistics :

• 49.1 % was the percentage of votes that congress got in 1984 elections, in which it won 404 seats.
• 48.7 % was the percentage of both the congress and BJP combined in 2004 elections.
• 477 is the number of seats that six national parties got in the 10th Lok Sabha elections in 1991
• 51 is the number of seats that state and regional parties got in 1991 . In 2004, they got 154 seats.
• BSP increased the number of seats from 5 to 14 in 1998-2004, increasing its percentage vote from 4.63 to 5.33%
• SP increased its seats from 20-36 from 1998-2004 & decreased its percentage vote from 4.93 to 4.32
• RJD increased its seats from 20-24 between 1998-2004 and the percentage vote decreased from 4.93 % to 2.41 %
• DMK increased its seats from 6 to 16 between 1998 till 2004. And the percentage vote increased from 1.44 o 1.81 %
• BJP had a 1.6 % vote loss costing the party as many as 44 seats in 2004
• In the last election Congress got about 26 % seats and BJP got about 22.16 % votes
• Muslim form more than 30 % of the electorate in 42 of the 543 seats
• In 1998 Lok Sabha polls only 7 % of the muslims voted the BSP and 61 % for SP. But in 2007 assembly polls , 32 percent voted for the BSP and 40 % for SP.

Youth :

• There are 34.8 crore youth in the age group of 15-34 years .
• Of these, about 10 crore are in the 15-19 years of age . Of these , 7 crore are rural and 3 crore are urban .
• Of the urban youth , more than one crore are living in large cosmopolitan towns and the more than one crore are living in small towns less than one lakh.
• Of the 3 crore urban youths , only 1.3 crore youths have completed their matriculation or higher secondary .
• Another 24.8 Crore youth are in the economically active age group of 20-34 years.
• Amongst these 7.6 crore are in urban areas , more than a third of them in small towns of less than one lakh.
• Only 3.6 crore of the 7.6 crore have studied till matriculation or above.
• And there are only 1.3 crore graduates . If we count total number of young graduates ( Urban & Rural ). It will add up to 2 crore.

If the party can understand the evolving electoral dynamics & worsening economic scenario coupled with elections just 45 days ahead & has a carefully evolved high noise level strategy. Victory is a foregone conclusion

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
mail@rajendragupta.org
Mob: +91-9323109456

An appeal to teachers – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted March 7, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

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Dear Teachers,

Most of you are busy conducting exams . After this , you will get busy evaluating answer scripts. Here is what i need to appeal to you. As most of you will remain untouched from these hard economic times , as you belong to government run schools and colleges. But your students have a multiple problems, that i must apprise you. Most of your students are depressed with poor job prospects after education or their long term future prospects , Besides , they are also facing problems in case their family member has been fired from the job recently or has taken a pay cut or the family business is passing through trying times .

Appeal to you all is , that please be liberal in evaluating the answer scripts unless the answers have no relevance . Please do not add more to students problems . Try and boost their morale .

Hope this appeal does not fall on deaf ears

Thanks for your kind consideration.

mail@rajendragupta.org

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Mobile:
India + 91 9323109456

Third World War is on- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted March 12, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
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Actual GDP growth around 4 % ? – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry provisional data released on 6th March 09.

Core growth shrinks to 1.4 % in Jan 09.

The growth of six infrastructure industries – crude , oil , refinery products, coal , power , cement and finished steel –slumped to 1.4 %. Reflecting India’s decline in consumption and getting deeper into recession. Sector had grown at 3.6 % last year. According to the provisional data released , the crude production & petroleum refinery output slipped into a negative growth in January, recording a fall of 8.1 % and 2.6 %.

Agriculture has already moved to negative growth at -2.2 %

Bad loans jumped by 60 % in the third quarter of 2009 for CANARA Bank . Almost similar is the case with other banks .

Had the sixth pay commission recommendations not been implemented , the growth would have been much lower than 5.3%. Growth would have been lower than 4.3 % for Q3 2008

With the rising unemployment as time passes, we are headed towards creating more NPA’s in the financial sectors. With banks becoming more risk averse , their profitability will suffer, as they wound not make money in lending , and give away interest on deposits and lose on increasing NPA’s via defaults .

Chinese economy is slowing down, and it will affect Indian economy in two ways. One , the exports to China will slow down . Second, the Chinese will dump the goods in India with the closing of Chinese factories

If you thought that the Third world war would be fought with weapons , you were fooling yourself. We are in midst of the third world war . Every part of the world is fighting . But as it would have been , the very definition has changed , we are all resorting to protectionism- Financial world war- This is nothing but the third world war in its new avatar.

We are headed towards a major crisis . Time to act fast ………..

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

E-mail : rajendra.india@gmail.com

Recession – Causes and solution – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted March 29, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Uncategorized

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India & Recession – Why & When

It is more than one and a half year that we have heard and read about recession , slowing economy, reduction in industrial output , high inflation , negative agricultural growth , voluntary cut in production , lay-offs , reduction in wages , shutting down of companies etc . Prime Minister and other ministers kept assuring that we are a decoupled economy with very ‘strong fundamentals’, and that India will not be affected. In the interim budget they did not give anything as ‘Stimulus’. Suddenly, when Standard and Poor down-graded our economy ratings to one level above ‘Junk status’. Overnight, the government announced a stimulus for the economy, and still keeps saying that, the economy will grow around 7 %. Personally, I am compelled to be optimistic, as I can’t afford to see my colleagues losing jobs, factories shutting down, people dying of hunger. A country with a billion populations fights a blame game. Government will finally put it on the global crises. But India was supposed to be a self reliant economy? Right? So are we saying we are beggars to the world and when the world goes belly up we will be reduced to what we are? Shame on the politicians who are liars of the highest order and distorting facts

There are five big questions that need answers from all of us and not just the government whom we have voted to power. These questions are related to the so called recession

1. Why it happened
2. Who failed us or who let us down
3. Where are we today
4. What is the solution
5. What we can do to prevent the same

Why it happened?

Congress ruled India for around 50 years .They gave us the infamous license raj, where it was difficult to produce without a license, available only to a select few. Outcome , politicians became rich , corporate houses became richer and the masses in India remained poor. When it came to voting, it was easy to ‘Influence’ and ‘Buy’ votes by offering ‘Daaru’ and ‘Sarees and cycles’. 70 % of the population lives in villages and they are the people who count when it comes to voting, and not people like you and me who read these blogs are merely 40 million in a population of over 1000 million?

In the 1990’s, our economy’s balance of payments situation became worse and Manmohan devaluated the currency twice and opened the economy to the foreign sector. After that, there was no looking back. Our immediate problem was solved but long term problems started. We started measuring our economic strength in the foreign exchange reserves in the country. These foreign investors also got into the stock market. Over the years, we got a very high Sensex- 21000. WOW!

As a result, Mukesh Ambani became the richest man in the world (albeit for a few days!!).

Just a few Indians who left the Indian shores for abroad and made it big ( V.S.Naipaul, Amartya Sen , Indira Nooyi , Arun Sarin etc..) or Arcelor , Tetley, Land Rover & Jaguar , or Corus acquisitions . These were merely aberrations. In India, where 16 % of the world populations reside, why do we not have 16 % of the top executives and 16 % of the top class firms in every sector? So these achievements were not a part of the Indian government’s plan or strategy. Clearly, these were a few aberrations and we arrogated them to India coming of an age. If you are asked about five top Indian names in the global corporate sector, you would find it difficult to reach the number. If you were asked to name five Indian fortune 500 companies, you would start looking at the wall. Is this what a land of billion minds should have produced? So we went wrong in our human resources management

We measured India with how many contracts Infosys or Wipro’s signed in Europe and India, how many call centers started serving US and European clients, and how many dollars got invested into India.

On the other hand , Ambani’s , Birla’s & Tata’s were looking at these ‘News’ and assuming that the entire India is growing fast . The reports that Indian government churns out is nothing but a bunch of information that government wants the public to know ,so that the government remains in the good books of the public and makes it win the elections and give it another term.

While Manmohan had opened the economy, he did nothing for farmers or small scale industries or BPL people. The result, we created a huge disparity in the income generation and spread. This was the sowing of seeds for a long term economic failure that our economy is facing today. Ideally, 25 out of the 100 richest people should have been from India, 100 of the fortune 500 companies should have been from India and 50 % of all patents should have been from India. Our billion plus population is for a mere statistics. Actually, our effective population is not more than 150 million. Rest is mere numbers or rather they have been just treated as numbers. I recall a definition of a politician ‘One who promises to protect rich from the poor and poor from the rich on the pretext of extracting money from the rich and votes from both’

Who failed us ?

Government did not fail alone. Media, in my belief, which is the teacher of modern society failed by selling its ethics and focusing on yellow journalism. Most of the top journalists are known to enjoy privileges and selling their conscience to others and write what their ‘Actual employers’ pay.

Judiciary: I read a day before yesterday a judge having said that, they should not equate to politicians & judges should not be asked to disclose their assets. SHAME ON YOU MR. Judge. Hopeless is a charitable word to describe judiciary in India . All the pillars of democracy have failed as judiciary is corrupt to an extent of over 90 %. Can you imagine the rot when a judge issued the summons to the President of India, Dr.A.P.J.Abdul Kalam? What worse can you imagine? If the president can be a victim of this inefficient judiciary what can a common man expect? If the judges have any shame they must quit en masse! You are a bunch of corrupt and inefficient people on the tax payer’s money and you don’t want to disclose your assets? Why the hell you want to keep them secret? Tell me a reasonable cause

Could you not try cases related to political corruption on priority things would have been different. But these greedy judges are not worth trusting for any worthwhile things for a suo moto action. They just keep passing judgments that gives them publicity.

No one trusts the government; everyone fears the judiciary and enforcement agencies. In all, the system has failed to deliver. I am not commenting the education and healthcare system as they don’t exists in the country

In all, I believe that our education system & more importantly teachers, media and judiciary have failed and delivered a fatal blow to our democracy

Teachers should be blamed for not being able to inculcate values amongst the students

Where are we?

A country is as strong as its citizens. When more than 80 % of the people are struggling to earn a two meals a day even after 61 years of Independence, have we gone the right way?

We are today in midst of two serious crises. One is the economic crises and the other is political crises.

Economic crisis can further be divided into two.

First, the one that has resulted into wrong economic policies blindly focused on FDI inflow and on making India a body shopping country. Also that, Indian government did not focus on developing the agriculture, infrastructure, SME, Retail & research based education. This had created a ‘Big economic divide’. Our politicians did not realise that the capacity building that could have resulted on building these sectors could have catapulted India to a different growth trajectory in the last two decades.

Second is the one that has been due to FDI, stock markets and the so called retail revolution. This was limited to about 35 towns directly and indirectly this gave employment to a lot of rural migrants. Knowing well that, most of agricultural families also depend on the members that work in towns and send money back home. These people have been affected due to reality and retail sector that is slowing down. All these are having a cascading effect.

Most important : Every one , right from the Reserve Bank governor to PM says that the worst is yet to come but they don’t tell what is the worst and when it will come and what is the solution ? It is like an astrologer telling you that you will die. Everyone dies one day , so what big a deal to tell that ? One should be able to tell when and how will you die .

I believe that , We are actually nearing the mid of recession cycle, and we will come of it in another year and a half.

Political crises: For more than 50 years, our country has been ruled by Gandhi family – A family of Kashmiri Pandits. This is enough to understand their commitment.

Who took the Kashmir issue to UN? Jawaharlal Lal Nehru, and we blame Pakistan for internationalizing the issue? Learn history

Congress lead by Gandhi’s has created a vicious cycle. Even today, Sonia Gandhi is the Chairperson of UPA, constitutionally authorized to oversee the implementation of CMP. Why these dual centers of power? Ideally, the Prime Minister’s role should not have been decimated. Why in the first place this extra authority created? Gandhi’s love for power is not hidden and they will keep away anyone who comes in their way. Gandhi’s have never allowed anyone to be number one in the party or politics. Whether it was Sharad Pawar or anyone else. No matter what. Also, that they have paid the price for this? What the Gandhi family is doing is against the law of nature. Power is like sand being held in the fist. The more you tighten the fist, more the sand will flow out. I would not be shocked if the family suffers a few adversaries in the times to come. They have always paid the price for their misconduct and the country had paid more …………………..Till the country gets rid of this family in politics, nothing can change.

Also, every Indian citizen has failed by not being active in politics and just making politics a tea table and road side discussion item. It is such a serious issue and has been treated casually by the Indian population.

What is the solution?

Complex problems have simple solutions – Read my earlier blog – An open letter to the PM.

Economic crisis has a political solution and political crises have an Economic solution.

First thing that needs to be done is to cut interest and lending rates in one shot and not in installments. I have been telling our PM since last year that we don’t need ‘Baby steps’, we need firm and drastic measures

Secondly, we must announce massive investments in infrastructure, Education & Research and IT (Government should set at least 100,000 IT kiosks as Government’s touch points for public access). The work should be given to IT companies of small and medium scale to retain the young IT talent.

FDI In retail should be discouraged and stopped immediately. We need an Indian version of FDI – Finance from domestic institutions.

Agriculture should be given a big push with incentives for organic farming & cash crops. According to NSS (National sample survey), even if one works for a day in a field, he is a farmer!! Which inflates the number of farmers in the country?

Five sectors can relieve India of its miseries; Infrastructure, Agriculture, Education, Retail & IT. Fortunately, we are at a nascent stage in every major sector . Be it agriculture , SME, Retail , IT , Automobiles, industrial growth , urbanization etc . In the US , the problems are of plenty , saturation & wastage . We are just at the reverse . Whilst US might find it difficult to protect and grow , we can log on to a massive growth with the right initiatives . Infact, India and US are at the two extreme ends of the growth cycle. All sectors in India have a potential for phenomenal growth. The 800 million Indians have to be made earning class and a spending class, and this one thing will take India to a 10 % + growth for the next twenty five years . We have a long way to go . Right governance can help us . NREGA Is not the right solution for a long term growth

Where will money come from?

What do you do when your family gets into financial problems? You sell a part of your assets for temporary relief and buy them back or buy better things in the good times or when the financial condition improves

India needs to re-look at the ‘Navratnas’ and dilute the equity and follow a moderate privatization drive to raise money to invest in the five sectors mentioned above. This is the way India can come out of the recession faster and build an economy with 8-10 % GDP growth every year or more.

India’s parallel economy is much bigger than the economy of taxes ( Black money economy is for sure a lot bigger than our 1000 Bn USD economy ). This money needs to be brought back and invested . I am not at all mentioning the money hoarded in Swiss banks and other heavens. All this can solve India’s problems today evening. This is a must , if we want to build an economy based on solid Economic and social foundation.

Lay-offs are one part of the problem what about the fresher’s who are struggling for jobs. We need to create more job opportunities. No one seems to be addressing the issue knowing well that, we will have more 10 crore people who will get hunting for jobs in the next 5 -10 years

Defence spending should be cut and the same be invested in infrastructure. The defence strategy should be re-looked and reworked

All tenders for house-keeping, parking stands, vendors in public places and railways etc………should be reserved for both educated and uneducated youth irrespective of caste but on financial background

We must have guidelines where we build economy on 40 % services, 50 % manufacturing and 10 % on global trade. We must never exceed exports more than 10 % of our GDP

Need driven services never go slow or out of business? Indian economy must be ‘inward looking’ and should be build on essential services and these should not be imported. All the national demand should be met by domestic producers. Need driven sectors like agriculture , FMCG, Healthcare ,textiles , processed food , Education , Oil and natural gas should be country centric and needs more thrust for explosive growth .

Any tender worth 500 Crores or more should not be allotted to bidders who have a manufacturing outside India. This will increase capacity building within the country

Seeing that it is recession time, the EMI of housing and vehicle loans for people who have lost jobs should be adjusted for at least two years. If the loans of 65000 crore can be waived for an income class that does not pay income tax (farmers). Why not give a moratorium on payments for the income class that pays tax. The two years EMI that are deferred for payments should have the interest based on the PLR or at reduced rates.

Every Indian needs to spend 10 minutes a day for politics and community work – An hour a week. Go start a neighborhood-nation building programme to ensure good governance. Rest I will add in my next blog

There are three sources of growth for an economy, increase in capital, and increase in labour force, and improvement in productivity. We will have to address all three

There is a difference in Economic growth and economic development. Economic growth is purely GDP but economic development is a broader concept that includes not just GDP but also indicators like social justice , income distribution, political freedom, pollution , Equality of income …………GDP captures average national income , but do not reflect how that income is spent.. Even increase in aids and cancer incidences in the country will add to the GDP expenditure on health services , Also, calamity will lead to the increase in GDP due to increase in reconstruction activities.

Moreover, GDP growth rate is inadequate measure of growth as it is calculated largely on the basis of rate of growth of income of the upper 20-30 % of the population who receive disproportionately large share of income. It calculates only money transactions and leaves many important activities and social measures and conditions like adult literacy rate, life expectancy and HDI rank

We must change our economic measurement methods from Economic growth to economic development

India needs to re-look into the growth measurement model. We have a solution for economic crises. We need to act fast and grow faster. Rest in my next blog

Good luck

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Mobile:
India + 91 9323109456
Email: President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org
www.countryfirst.org
www.linkedin.com/in/rajendragupta

Urban voters can’t make a differnce in the current system- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted May 2, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: BJP, Economy & Recession, Global recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution

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Why should the public vote ?

A lot many people expected that the voting percentage would be higher this time due to the people dissatisfied with the current system, and that the campaigns like Jagoree would enthuse voters. Just two days before the voting , I was talking to my friend Dr. Anand Trivedi , State President of Shiv Khera’s party, and I told him that , I did not expect voting percentage to be higher . Reasons are clear , those who are concerned are in very small number ( urban voters) don’t vote due to lack of trust in the current creed of politicians and those who vote don’t count or don’t think of the consequences of voting . For them voting is a trading business . Money for vote . Simple to decide .

Over the years , politicians have done little to enthuse voters or convince them that they stand for the good of the nation. On the contrary, people like Sanjay Dutt standing in the elections , crores of wealth disclosed by the contestants , statements made by Varun , Mulayam etc , too many political parties in the fray have convinced the intelligentsia that voting will not change the system

From my personal experience , I must state that these independents and small time parties will not make any big change in the election , they can just raise some awareness. I am sure that, most of these people will lose their security deposit. Also , that most of these people are ambitious and fight for who takes the lead . This is spoiling the equations that could have created an impact . In essence , these small parties are not united . Everyone thinks that he or she can change the system

Last time when Shiv Khera supported a few candidates through his party , I had warned him of losing security deposit and also gave him the logic for this conclusion.

People who vote diligently are amongst the 600 million people who earn less than a dollar a day. They are a creation of 50 years of congress misrule . These people don’t care about development or five year plans , they are concerned about today’s dinner and fun ( they rarely would imagine indulgence !! ). So politicians can get them for election rallies in hot summer afternoon by promising them chicken curry , buy their vote by cash for vote offer. Why are we so stupid to think, if these politicians can trade in crores for joining the government , why will they not spend 20 crores buying votes ? After all , you can recover in multiples by voting in a ‘trust vote’ . Which is now almost a common occurrence .

Politics is such a game that people cannot change it without media support and an proactive , effective and an independent judicial system. Both are handsomely paid by politicians . If the judicial system just set up special courts to try cases related to politicians & political corruption, the system could be cleaned in the next ten years.

I think that majority of the people have started believing that the system will never change . This is the death of democracy by suffocation from politicians .

What will Rahul Gandhi do to this nation ? His father used to say that out of Rs.1 meant for poor only 15 paisa reaches the poor . Recently in Gangtok, he said out of Rs.100 meant for poor only 15 paisa reaches the poor. All this , when his great grand father , grand mother and father ruled India repeatedly and divided it ? We must not forget that Gandhi’s were Kashmiri Pandits and they could not save Kashmiri pandits from fleeing from Kashmir. Infact , the biggest mistake that Nehru did was to take Kashmir to United Nations and internationalize it ! Same for Amethi , it has been the ‘parking lot’ for Gandhi family to cry , sing and dance before the elections and win . Whereas, after representing it for decades , the latest data of Amethi shows that 35 % of the population is still below the poverty line. If the Gandhi’s cannot save their Kashmiri brethren and constituencies they represent , What good they will do to India ? Now you can understand why people don’t trust politicians and why they will not waste their time to vote .

Urban voters don’t waste your time ……….Do something that counts.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email : president@countryfirst.org
Rajendra.india@gmail.com

The Government has to deliver – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted June 28, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Global recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution, Uncategorized

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Manifesto 2009 -2014

Government must Pledge the nation to fulfill the promise of REAL Development.
YES – That’s the only way …
Empowered women – Vibrant India
Cheerful farmers – Progressive India
Educated & Financially strong youth – Strong India
Well Equipped Soldiers – Safe & Secure India

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Contents
Preface
Every nation has the government it deserves:
Congress Scorecard 2004-2009.
India Today :
Time has come : It is the worst crisis ever !
Y-our agenda
Priority areas. (YES) Youth, Economy & Security
(REAL) Development – Rural , Education , Agriculture & Livelihood
Food , Clothing , Clean water and Healthcare for the Common Man
Economic Development
Key issues
Solution :
Youth and Women empowerment
Employment Generation from Different initiatives
Organised -Unorganised Sector
Urbanization of rural areas
Retail trade & Shopkeepers community-
E-Governance
SME
Police reforms , National Security & Terrorism
Education and vocational training
Cultivation & Agriculture (IEC- Irrigation, Electricity & Credit) –
Transport
Banking & Finance
Judiciary.
Poverty Alleviation
New thrust areas for bold actions
Economy of the people, by the people and for the people of this country:
Village Republic Scheme (VRS) & BOARD
Healthcare
Adopt a child, senior citizen, Village, School & PHC scheme
Administrative & Governance reforms
Special abilities – disabled, BPL, Beggars & Destitute
Urban infrastructure
Tourism
Energy & Environment
Loans & Housing
Goods & Services Tax (GST )
Yoga , Mediation & Sports (YMS )
Labour laws
Population Control
Constitutional & Electoral reforms
Defence forces
R&D
Income & taxes
Defence technology SEZ
Export Oriented SEZ for wine
North East Region
National Task force for Animal husbandry, Milk processing, Food processing and fisheries
Post & Telegraph
Private Public Partnership
Cooperative Movement -
Consumer protection movement
Media & Sting Operations -
Disaster Management
Common Civil Code.
Backward – BIMARU States
Tribal Development
Wool Production
Good Governance
Foreign Policy

Preface
Having reaching here to read, i believe you are concerned about this nation with this, i must take you through my journey of how i wrote this Manifesto 2009-14, and why it is important for each and every concerned citizen of this country.
Sometime in 2003 i wrote a book ‘Truth Alone Triumphs’ which was not published for public, but was sent across to all leading decision makers, politicians, influential people and Journalists. Most of them acknowledged and sent me their best wishes. Sam Pitroda wrote back ‘ You must enter politics to change the system from within’, Similarly , many people including the Prime Minister , Speaker of Lok Sabha , leader of the opposition appreciated the content ‘ as good for the nation to follow’ ,and sent me the note ‘to spread the message’. Over the last couple of years, i have written a number of open letters to our Prime Ministers right from Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee to Dr. Manmohan Singh. Outcome, as you all know, a formal acknowledgment follows with appreciation.
Sam Pitroda , whom i have always considered as an architect of modern India through his revolutionary PCO booths earlier , and now as the chairman of the National Knowledge Commission. The PCO’s, i believe, had reduced the distance between geographies, created a rural & urban connect, empowered a lot of entrepreneurs. With his PCO movement, suddenly people used to days of travelling to talk to people or communicate through our lethargic postal system suddenly started talking whenever they wanted, Indians got a new high and India was now a connected nation. I my view, his innovative leadership catapulted India and sowed the seeds of the current IT revolution which has put India ahead on the IT & BPO map. Even today, his recommendations as Chairman of the National Knowledge Commission, if properly implemented, can bring an enormous benefit to this nation.
Besides Sam’s comment on my earlier book, three people came out to meet or associate or help. Dr.A.P.J.Abdul Kalam met me, sent me the details of Viksit Bharat Foundation, where he has invested his entire earnings. His office has been in touch for all the years he was the President, and still is reachable at a call. Through Dr.Kalam’s office, i was able to get one important change done – ‘Bilingual labelling of medicines ‘. When only 5 % of the people in India know English, why medicines sold in India should carry the name in English? Dr.Kalam moved this through his office and got it implemented. The other important change i was working was ‘None of the above found suitable’ in the ballot papers. This was sent to the Chief Election Commissioner, J.M.Lyngdoh and Dr.Kalam. I wish he had a second stint; this change could also have been done.
Second person who came out to connect, is a top politician, a former Union cabinet minister, founder of BJP & honoured with the best parliamentarian award, Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi, He has always been available to meet me whenever i wanted, and kept boosting my morale for making a

positive contribution to the nation. Last year, Dr.Joshi summoned me to write the manifesto for BJP. This could have been a great opportunity to contribute to the nation. Moreover, for the first time, i was being asked to write the ‘Vision document – the Manifesto’ for a leading political party. I wrote from a ‘common man’s’ point of view. Off course, all was not accepted by BJP’s parliamentary board .But still, they took a major portion from my original draft. Also, i must say that Dr.Joshi is rare politician, who practices highest standards of ethics, which is difficult in today’s political environment. I am left to wonder sometimes, how he has survived politics in today’s tough and highly corrupt and institutionalised system. Third personality who has been like a God send gift is a world renowned business guru and acclaimed author, Shiv Khera .Who shares the same passion for the betterment of this nation. He appointed me national President of the organization he founded, Countryfirst. Despite his busy schedule & sessions, he is always reachable and hopefully, one day, he will see the nation changing during his lifetime.
All these people have been a real boost to my activities, and gave me ample opportunities to speak & share my ideas with a whole lot of people.
Back to the manifesto: While the manifesto written for BJP was shared with the parliamentary board of BJP and they decided to pick and choose what was politically helpful and could add to the to the vote bank. Since a lot of research and hard work was done for writing this document of national importance , i thought , it would be good to publish it for a common man to see how the common man’s vision and party’s vision could be aligned . I had a chance to go through the earlier manifestos of both the parties (Congress & BJP); it is shameful that most of the promises are not kept by any of the parties after taking the reins of power. I sincerely hope that the government in power will go through this, and use whatever it considers useful. I am sure that this time, the party will try and implement most of the points mentioned in its manifesto. Though, it is not possible for any government to implement all that is promised in the election manifesto. But still, if 80 % of the promises are delivered upon, it is not doubt, great performance for any government. I also wish that the common man takes the responsibility for change to ‘himself’.
My view is that, the government’s agenda should not be election oriented. It should be drawn from the requirements of the grass root level public. We all saw that Manmohan Singh’s government sacrificed the support from the Left front to get the nuclear deal through; it was at the cost of the government. Finally, we have seen that he is back with a thumping majority, and Left is reduced by its humiliating defeat. This in itself proves that good work cannot go unrecognized. So, the current government must pay more attention to the steps that lead to employment and income generation. The government cannot clap with rising Sensex, as rising Sensex does not raise the GDP of the nation. We also cannot build a lasting economy on dollars only. We need an economy that focuses ‘value creation’ of about 80 % from domestic sectors and for the majority of the population. Exports must never exceed 20 % of the GDP, if we want to create an economy that can grow 10 % for the next 10-15 years.
Sadly, in the last 60 years, 60 % of the population still lives below a dollar a day. Think how they can survive when rice is above Rs.20 a KG, Pulses above Rs 60 a kg, Ginger Rs. 80 a kg? We need to

Convert these people into earning and spending class by imparting them basic skills. We need basic skills at the base of the population, higher & specialised skills at the top level in the population for taking this nation ahead on a faster growth curve. Every year, India must aim to lift 5 % people above the poverty line, and then India can truly become a developed nation in the next ten years. We need to create new income streams; NAREGA is not a solution for such a massive population, the only way these people can grow is by hard work. India has the best of brains but lacks the generation of leaders and will power to shape an actionable road map to harness the potential of the people. We have seen wrong policies being implemented; only Delhi and Mumbai get the most focus and funds. No wonder we are facing migration from smaller towns to these two cities. I have always heard people talking of making Mumbai as Shanghai. Why do we not convert ten smaller Indian towns into Mumbai rather than just looking at already over burdened towns like Mumbai becoming Shanghai? I would also like to see some paradigm change in the tax structures, why do we have an income tax for individuals at all? Tax expenditure! Let people pay taxes only when they buy goods and services and not on their income. Why can we not have such a system?
Now to recession: What everyone is calling a global recession is not a recession. The world has pressed the ‘Reset’ button. With this, a new multi polar world is going to emerge; it will end the uni & bi polar world. Now we cannot dream of independent economies but a truly connected and an interdependent world, full of surprises and opportunities .It is a fact that America has lost all its innovation and it is coming to India and China. Every recession has shifted the power. Earliest recession shifted the position of global power from U.K. to USA & USSR. This recession will finally shift the power from USA. It may be quite unfortunate, if we cannot use this opportunity. Indian Economy is like a sleeping giant, the day it gets up and starts running, no one can stop it. It is a force of a billion brains, and we know what ‘charged’ billion brains can deliver. The current government has to wake up this giant and charge it. Here is the key:
Youth , economy and security are the three key issues before the nation and that is why the acronym ‘ YES’ , and the action of the government need to be towards REAL Development .i.e. Rural , Education , Agriculture and Livelihood . So this acronym REAL. We cannot afford to lose time and focus. Also, the current leaders need to include more common people from the public and a younger generation to lead the nation for the next 25 years.
Our scientists and youth have struggled a lot to reach where we are today. Those who can struggle to survive are the best people to innovate. We have so many opportunities to create jobs, money for the people that we cannot just count our success on increasing FDI or WPI based inflation control to pump the economy or the NAREGA scheme. People are losing jobs & hope with every hour passing by. We need to set our own limits and set out achieve them. It is time for the current government to deliver on the economy by focussing on SME’s and Agriculture. This can lift the economy into to a new orbit.
Foreign money is never free, it comes with its own riders and when it exits, it causes unbearable pain. It might be prudent to divest some of the PSU’s or all and deploy the money into the development schemes. Black money economy is a parallel economy, and is more than our real GDP.

This must be checked and brought back into the system for development. It is time to re-look at our policies, priorities and politics, and do an introspection to evolve out a new growth paradigm. Fire
Fighting and re-construction are two set of activities on the same place and need to be handled by separate teams.
So far, election manifestos have always remained for the media and not for the public. I wish the concerned citizens to review this manifesto , work out their local manifestos based on the local agenda, for each district and approach their local representatives to adopt that and work for the constituency . Politicians have to work for us and they are just public servants and not our masters! We must take India ahead of the world. I will call it ‘India Ahead’ campaign.
We have to come out of our shells and become assertive individuals not only for ourselves but also for our nation. Today, we should not talk about ruling party and the opposition, but of ruling party and the watchdog party but work constructively. Together, positive changes can take place not by criticising, boycotting, opposing and disposing but by participating proactively. I am sharing my vision for what the current government needs to do. We all need to wake up and participate then only, we can change the nation for the better. India has always addressed problems that are non-existent. For examples, we are finding out what is wrong, what is missing in a nation of a billion minds? Trust me; India has all that can make it a strongest, progressive and a powerful nation in the world. Just two things are missing; Honesty and courage. If we all decided to be assertive with our honesty and courage and don’t have dual lives, no one can stop this nation. We talk about corruption but we are active partners. I have always seen that people blame our system of administration. With my personal experience, i can assure you that, we have the best administrative system, no one follows. Today, if you complain against a government employee, an action is certainly taken, but how many of you complain?
The key for the success of the government lies in its active citizens. We have a passive electorate so we have outdated leaders, the moment we participate and start questioning the politicians about our rights and money and how it is used; we will never have to read this book again! Inefficiency cannot tackle inefficiency!

Best wishes,

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
E-mail: rajendra.india@gmail.com
mail@rajendragupta.org

Every nation has the government it deserves:
Congress has ruled this nation for more than fifty years and other governments have ruled for around 8 years let’s examine what they did to this nation?
In the last sixty years, the leaders have contributed immensely to deteriorating the economy and suppressing the rights of the common man, by denying him the right education and running the economy on the ‘Self serving’ license raj. It was only in the 1990’s that the policies led India towards Bankruptcy, and the economy had to be liberalised on the directions of the World Bank. We should not forget that, a single party running the nation for more than 50 years, it did not let the common man to get proper education, as ‘The Common Man’ would have protested for change. The self serving leaders never wanted. A huge Population under the misrule has just remained a mere statistics and a vote bank to be used during elections and abused thereafter. Respect for talent and merit has never been a norm in the any political party. No party practices democracy at home, how can they practice democracy in the nation? Respect for democracy and talent is still to emerge with the politics of this nation maturing.
We are still talking of Indo-US nuclear deal forgetting that, with or without the Indo-US nuclear deal, India should have become a self sufficient state – A Self Reliant India by now.
Leaders have in the last few years built an economy aimed at serving the developed world only, and reduced India to a body shopping country. People have always talked of strong fundamentals in Indian economy. If at all, the Indian economy is strong, then why it is sliding day by day as the developed world sinks deeper into recession? It was never built on strong fundamentals. On the contrary, fundamentals were never addressed. The moment the foreign economies got into trouble, we got into a deeper trouble. This proves the shallowness of the economic principles and that Indian economy was not build it was sold to foreign economies and now that these economies are in trouble, we are in a deeper trouble. None of the political leaders understood what India needs to have to build a robust economy. Today, we are saddled with the burden created with myopic policies of the leaders, and the whole world is adopting protectionist policies and we are going to head for a painful 2009-11. USA will be saddled with trillions of dollars of deficit and will find it difficult to come out. India must avoid that path.
Inflation hurt the common man by taking the prices of daily needs sky high. Though, leaders have manipulated the numbers, it is hard to believe the cooked inflation numbers, as the prices still remain high

At the time of budget, Congress talked of constitutional propriety and refused any stimulus in this financial year. Suddenly, Congress let loose everything throwing the economic principles to the winds. Such Adhocism is only a sure shot recipe for disaster and conveys that Congress knows how to capture power and not how to empower India. Even senior congress leaders like Mani Shankar Aiyar have written, that economic reforms have led to lopsided development outcomes- 836 million Indians haven’t felt the benefits. It remains a big challenge to see how the same people can deliver different result.
Below is an ‘Eye Opener’ on what political parties have contributed to this nation: Key democratic institutions have been used as weapons of vendetta or denigrated. Credibility of the institutions is eroded beyond imagination.
A Failed Judiciary:

On Feb 6, 2009, the Supreme court said that , the Criminal justice system has collapsed – Making the chilling observation, which too many only confirmed the widely held perception of the erosion of the system, a Bench comprising Justices B N Agrawal, G S Singhvi and Aftab Alam also said that the lower judiciary had decayed. “The courts of magistrate and munsif have ceased to be an option for the common man,” the Bench said and compared the lower courts to ill-equipped and ill-staffed public health centres (PHCs) in rural areas.
Only those people go there who have no other option,” said the Bench as an apparent indicator of the low measure of public faith in these courts, which are the first points of dispute settlement for the masses.
While the last Election manifesto of congress in 2004 quoted ‘Immediate measures should be taken to drastically cut the delays in courts, particularly in the high court’s and in lower levels of the judiciary’.

Central Bureau of Investigations: “Only God can save the situation”.

On Tuesday 11th Feb, 2009, the Supreme Court said the CBI was acting at the behest of the law ministry while investigating the disproportionate assets case against SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family members. An exasperated Bench said, “Only God can save the situation”.

“You are acting at the behest of the law ministry. You are not acting on your own,” said the bench comprising Justice Altamas Kabir and Justice Cyriac Joseph ‘

Ironically, the last election manifesto of congress quoted ‘An administrative reforms commission should be established to prepare a detailed blueprint for revamping the public

Administration system completely so as to make it more performance oriented and accountable’.

Divided Election Commission: Fading hopes!!

The Chief Election Commissioner’s recommendation for removal of Election Commissioner , Navin Chawla ahead of the general elections brings to the fore the differences among the three-member body which has often been marred by clashes over crucial decisions. This is the second pillar after the Judiciary that safe guards the democracy. Under the current s rule, The Election commission’s decisions cannot be trusted anymore. Apparently, looks like, that the system has lost its credibility. Whereas, the Election Manifesto of Congress quoted ‘Congress is deeply committed to electoral reforms’. I do not understand how come the last election commissioner became a union minister for youth and sports affairs? Same happens to most of the people occupying the posts of judges and officers who get elevated to Rajya Sabha or as diplomats or get nominated in different government bodies.

Congress is not in favour of Aam Aadmi??? Poor accountability on spending:

The CAG (Comptroller and auditor general) report released on 20th February 2009 said that the centre’s Aam Aadmi Bill was highly inflated. According to CAG, the funds meant for social and infrastructure development were diverted to celebrations and giving aid to NGO’s and other expenditure rather than creating infrastructure.

Remember Rajiv Gandhi saying, out of every rupee meant for the poor only fifteen paisa reaches the common man. This is what the leader of party said, whose family ruled this nation as its fiefdom since the very independence! On 26th April 2009, at Gangtok, Rahul Gandhi went a step further to say now on 15 paisa reaches out of Rs.100. If so is the case, what have the successive governments done!!

We are living at the mercy of the terrorists.

The less we talk the better. This government has failed utterly against terror. We had all kinds of attacks at all the places – Air, Land & Sea. It is not just Kashmir, it is all across. We are totally at the mercy of the terrorists. Successive governments have let the nation down badly. Congress accepted its failure to act against terrorist in the form of sacking the Union Home Minister, Shivraj Patil. If politicians don’t act fast and decisively on terror, we are readying India for another partition.

Financially, our economy is at its worst:

The fiscal deficit for 2009 would be in around 11 %. The Fiscal deficit budgeted at 2.5 % of the GDP this year, Should end up at 6 %, to which should be added another 1.5 % of the GDP for the off-budget items like dues on oil and fertilizers companies. Throw in another 3.5 % of

GDP of state government deficits and India Should have a consolidated fiscal deficit of 11 % in 2008-9. Remember, during the CITIZENS led NDA, Revenue deficit never crossed 4.5 %. Congress took over an Indian Economy growing at 8 % every year and after five years; we are just a step away from being rated as a ‘Junk status’ under the current policies and misrule with growth numbers less than half of what we had in 2004.

Current policies led to unchecked inflation. Even we are not sure, whether the low inflation numbers we see today are correct or cooked up. Economy is sliding day by day. Companies are getting into voluntary shut downs, expected job losses till March 09 have crossed two crore. Last Election manifesto of Congress reiterated “its firm commitment to eliminating the revenue deficit of the central government in five years time” & actually gave India the worst ever revenue deficit since its independence . According to S&P’s ( Standard & Poor’s ratings ) , India’s fiscal position is unsustainable in the middle term, reduced the outlook on long term debt from stable to negative for four government entities , and , in turn, the UPA government . In the 3rd Week of Feb’ 09, even Fitch ratings had called India’s finances in to question.

Urban Poverty:

According to the ‘India: Urban Poverty Report, 2009′,The poverty in cities is not an overflow of the poverty in villages but has happened because of the faulty nature of urbanization in India, says the country’s first report on Urban Poverty released in Feb,09. According to the study, an estimated 23.7 per cent of the urban population was living in slums amid squalor, crime, disease and tension, but not all slum dwellers exist below the poverty line.
They have been marginalised because of the poor city planning and poorer urban land management and legislation.
The urban poverty was not about only nutritional deficiency but deficiencies in the basic needs of housing, water, sanitation, medical care, education, and opportunity for income generation. As many 81 million or 25.7 per cent people (2004-05) subsist in urban areas on incomes that are below the poverty line. Eighty per cent of their meagre income goes towards paying for food and energy, leaving very little for meeting the cost of living in an increasingly monetised society
Congress Election Manifesto of 2004 quoted ‘The Congress is conscious of the havoc that corruption at all levels ads to the harassment of the common man’.
In fact, sixty years of misrule is a naked, sordid & ruthless saga of Gareebi, Bhrashtachaar and Aantakwaad and not the Roti, Kapda aur Makaan that has just remained a slogan after 60 years of rule.
Overall, the governments have failed on all fronts. What all we see as growth is incremental growth that happens on its own. . We have totally forgotten the sacrifices of our freedom fighters. We are at loss of words to express our anguish to forget Bhagat Singh

, Neta ji and Sardar Patel, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Maulana Azad and others as well who contributed to India’s freedom struggle.
Sixty years of misrule has certainly achieved one thing; ethics has been eroded in politics and no one trusts a politician. Citizens should be committed to change this by participating actively in bringing about this change and creating an India for the common man. Criticism alone does not work; we need a solution oriented approach even from the opposition. We must support the current government. Though, in the current elections and the new government, we don’t have the actual representation of the common man. All that we see as next generation leaders are the second generation leaders of the existing politicians. Though, there have been some bold statements by Rahul Gandhi for reorganising the congress. Which has been unheard of from the Gandhi clan till now, but still we need to see watch closely what Rahul does going forward. It should not remain just rhetoric. I hope that the congress does not repeat the score card that it had in 2004-2009. The good part is that congress has a clear majority to implement the key plans. Following is Congress scorecard based on the last manifesto.
Congress Scorecard 2004-2009.
This is taken from the congress manifesto for 2004-2009. Reality is shocking.
No. Key Result areas What Congress promised in the last Manifesto What it did
1 Agriculture Annual growth of less than 4-4.5 % is unacceptable Agriculture Growth in Q3 2008-09 is Negative -2.2 %
2 Intensive agricultural development program Should be started in 100 districts ???
3 Farmers insurance Farm insurance schemes for both crops and cattle Should be implemented ???
4 Employment Accelerate employment Generation More than 2 Crores jobs lost till March 2009
5 Fiscal Policy Committed to eliminating the revenue deficit of central govt. By 2009 In Feb 09, the revenue deficit reached at 11.4 % , highest ever since Independence
6 Growth Growth of below 10 % in industry is simply unacceptable Growth figures in Q3 2008-09 was around 5.3 %
7 Education To spend 6 % of GDP and set up Education Development Finance Corporation ???
8 Khadi & Village Industries to be modernised ???
9 Block level Establish at least one industrial training institute in each development block of the country ???
10 Annual Rozgar report To be released every 1st May ???
11 A great thrust on Exports of textiles , handicrafts , Gems & Jewellery , leather , software & engineering Painful slowdown in all this sectors and the government is clueless on what to do? Units are shutting down and much more than one crore people are expected to be out of Job by March end in these sectors
12 Farm labour Ensure the fullest implementation of wage laws for farm labour ???
13 Landless Congress to Redouble its efforts to distribute surplus productive land to the landless ???
14 Women Congress pledges to press for the constitutional amendment to reserve one third of seats in Lok Sabha and in Vidhan Sabha’s for Women ???
15 Healthcare Congress Should raise public spending on healthcare to at least 2-3 % of GDP ???
16 Reservation Congress pledges to extend reservations for the economically deprived persons belonging to communities that are at present not entitled to such reservations ???
17 Weavers & artisans New middle level technical institutions Should be started in places where for example weavers and artisans are concentrated ???
18 Food scarce areas Grain Banks in chronically food scarce areas Should be started ???
19 Girl Child Nutrition program for the girl child particularly Should be expanded on a significant scale ???
20 Organised , Informal & Unorganised sector
Urban Poor Every initiative Should must and Should be taken to expand the proportion of employment in the organised sector, congress Should ensure the well being and welfare of all workers in unorganized sector Only job losses have been reported in the last few years in all these sectors and Congress has remained a silent spectator
21 Congress to establish a National Commission to examine problems facing enterprises operating in the unorganised sector ???

22 A national fund Should be created ???
23 A single , simplified law Should be enacted to set out the obligations of these enterprises to labour and for safety ???
24 Congress Should create legal space in towns and cities for hawkers , vendors , food sellers etc……so that they are spared the risk of extortion , eviction, confiscation and harassment ???
25 Social housing schemes Should be launched to meet the needs of the urban poor ???
26 Security of the nation Congress Should strengthen the intelligence network Most gruesome 19 attacks. A record of 63 blasts in 35 days. Assam, Oct 30, 2008 – 63 people killed, Imphal , Oct 21, 2008 – 17 people killed , New Delhi, Sept 13 , 2008- 26 people killed, New Delhi, Sept 27, 2008 – Three people Killed , Ahmedabad , July 26, 2008 – 57 people killed after 20 bombs went off in two hours, Bangalore , July 25, 2008 – One person killed, Jaipur, May 13, 2008 – 68 people killed in serial bombings, Faizabad , November 23, 2007- 15 people killed in Court bombings, Hyderabad , August 25,2007- 42 people killed in two blasts, Samjhauta Express , Feb 19, 2007- 66 people killed , Malegaon , Sept 8, 2006- 40 people killed in two blasts, Mumbai , July 11, 2006 – 209 people killed in seven blasts on sub-urban trains – the lifeline of Mumbai , Varanasi , March 7, 2006- 21 people killed in three blasts including one at the temple and another at the crowded railway station, New Delhi, Oct 29, 2005- 61 people killed in three blasts on the eve of Diwali

27 Judiciary Immediate measures Should be taken to drastically cut delays in courts , particularly in the high court’s and in lower levels of judiciary On Feb 6, 2009, the Supreme court said that, the Criminal justice system has collapsed… A Bench comprising Justices B N Agrawal, G S Singhvi and Aftab Alam also said that the lower judiciary had decayed. “The courts of magistrate and munsif have ceased to be an option for the common man,” the Bench said and compared the lower courts to ill-equipped and ill-staffed public health centres (PHCs) in rural areas
28 Manufacturing Sector Congress Should establish a National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council ???
29 Yearly report card – Jan Dastavejh Every year on October 2nd , the congress pledges to present to the people of India a Jan Dastavejh on the progress of the implementation of the manifesto ???
India Today:
India is a land of a billion talented brains. Over the last 62 years, we have proven to the world of our people’s strong determination and capabilities. We are blessed with a rich cultural heritage, natural resources, intellectual capital; world’s best human resources and our ability endure everything & still reach the moon! No wonder, the world looks upon us for the best people. There has been a lack of direction and right atmosphere at home. This has led to brutal crushing of our talent and enormous wastage of our resources. We have contributed to the whole world. But at home, we remain a frustrated population & a struggling nation. Today, we stand at the cross roads to take stock of what did we achieve in the last 62 years of freedom from the foreign rule? Why we were never allowed to flourish and how we can end this?
Time has come: It is the worst crisis ever!
Friends, we can keep hoping things should change and sit back. But honestly, we cannot afford to lose time. We either participate and change or let it go. Time and again, it has been proven that, common man has not participated in nation building via elections. How can 1.03 billion people not wake up when 500+ people are taking them for a ride? Don’t frustrate yourself. Till undemocratic politicians remain at the helm of affairs, nothing can be expected. This is not about an election but our determination to participate and change the nation; it is the question of changing the destiny of this nation going forward. It is not just an appeal to politicians, but to all who wish to see a different India, an India which stands tall above all.
Y-our agenda
All have equally been suffers to the same atrocities and misrule of the political class. Let’s pledge for a better India, a country where a common man has a say, and it addresses the issues that you want to be addressed. This is how we can transform this Nation. All of you are hoping that things will change on their own. But the fact remains, that hope is not a

Strategy. The ruling government will look into this .We say our agenda is nothing but your agenda. Our priority and path is summed up below in YES, REAL Development
Priority areas. (YES) Youth, Economy & Security
(REAL) Development – Rural , Education , Agriculture & Livelihood
Food , Clothing , Clean water and Healthcare for the Common Man
Government needs to immediately attend on our national plan of action to bring about a reform process that starts with addressing the urgent and important issues related to youth, as youth is a ‘Golden Demographic advantage’, with a special focus on empowering women . Women power alone have the strength to change the nation !Putting overall economic development mechanism leading to creating an equitable allocation of resources aimed at creation & distribution of wealth in both rural and urban India , agriculture & non-agriculture , manual & Hi-tech, small scale and large scale industries and aim at security -social , Economic and military ,with the base focus of ensuring Food , Clothing and Healthcare to the common man. The government must earmark 60 % of the plan funds for and effect public investments in REAL development – Rural , Education Agriculture and Livelihood generation .

Economic Development – There is a difference in Economic growth and economic development. Economic growth is purely GDP but economic development is a broader concept that includes not just GDP but also indicators like social justice , income distribution, political freedom, pollution , Equality of income …………GDP captures average national income , but do not reflect how that income is spent.. Even increase in aids and cancer incidences in the country Should add to the GDP expenditure on health services , Also, calamity Should lead to the increase in GDP due to increase in reconstruction activities. Moreover, GDP growth rate is inadequate measure of growth as it is calculated largely on the basis of rate of growth of income of the upper 20-30 % of the population who receive disproportionately large share of income. It calculates only money transactions and leaves many important activities and social measures and conditions like adult literacy rate, life expectancy and HDI rank. The government must move towards transforming the Ministry of finance to economic development so that the real effect of the economic measures can be validated against the goals. There are three sources of growth for an economy, increase in capital, and increase in labour force, and improvement in productivity, Government should impact all the three in its pursuit to make India a stronger nation
Key issues
1. An Equitable, sustainable and stable growth environment needs to be created. The current policies of the government have brought the economy back to its knees.

2. Jobs need to be retained and a massive push is required for employment generation in retail, education, agriculture, Healthcare, infrastructure, Education, technology and tourism sectors on a war footing.
3. IT & BPO sector is under stress , and the current government must create opportunities within the nation to keep up the growth in the sector
4. Vocational training and re-skilling needs to be taken up on war footing to keep the momentum in job generation and growth at all levels in the job hierarchies
5. Agriculture needs new impetus as more than 65 % of our population is dependent on agriculture. More value has to be added to agriculture to increase the productivity and profitability
6. Communication is the key to growth and the government should strive to reduce the tele-communication cost by 90 %.
7. Security of the nation needs a total re-look with a action oriented approach and need to make this system more result oriented and accountable & more freedom be provided to operate without any political interference . A zero-tolerance policy on terrorism should be enacted. Defence forces need a booster.
8. SME sector needs a fresh vigour to make India a developed country. The current government must take all necessary steps to achieve this goal with priority and equal thrust
9. Rural India needs a completely new focus. Despite all tall claims in the last six decades, rural India still remains underserved, underfunded and an outdated system.
10. Judiciary needs to be ramped up to restore faith in the law and order
11. Innovation , entrepreneurship and new emerging opportunities Should be attended in a focussed manner
Solution:
We have failed as a nation. Today the country is facing a severe crisis. People are losing jobs by every hour, faith every kilometre and hope every day. Rising stock market does not raise the GDP of a nation, and this, the leaders must understand. We must do a quick fix for this economy but work out a short term and a long term solution for the economy and society. The mistake every government has done is to address the economic issues without including the social perspective

The detailed road map and action areas are as follows.
Youth and Women empowerment:
• There are 34.8 crore youth in the age group of 15-34 years. Of these, about 10 crore are in the 15-19 years of age. Of these, 7 crore are rural and 3 crore are urban. Of the urban youth, more than one crore are living in large cosmopolitan towns and the more than one crore are living in small town’s less than one lakh. Of the 3 crore urban youths, only 1.3 crore youths have completed their matriculation or higher secondary. These youth need to be guided & incentivised to study and undergo compulsory vocational and on the job learning. They should be a priority area for forming the policy on ‘Earn while you learn’ program.
• Another 24.8 Crore youth are in the economically active age group of 20-34 years. Amongst these 7.6 crore are in urban areas, more than a third of them in small towns of less than one lakh. Only 3.6 crore of the 7.6 crore have studied till matriculation or above. And there are only 1.3 crore graduates. If we count total number of young graduates (Urban & Rural). It should add up to 2 crore.
• These youth of this country are talented and responsible but lack the right guidance, skills and opportunities to tap their potential. The current government must immediately address the issue and how to channelize the power of youth by providing them suitable employment opportunities. Education today is lacking monetary value and the goal would be to ensure that educated people don’t sit idle. Special schemes for women education and empowerment should be launched within six months. Special scholarships aimed at promoting higher education and entrepreneurship in women should be introduced. The government must make the conditions conducive and bring up laws to introduce ‘Earn while you learn’ scheme for employing students to do part time government jobs in shifts.
• The government must work out a policy to allot government tenders wherever feasible, to only unemployed / employed youths limited to running or operating different facilities or housekeeping in government establishments thereby, throwing open 10, 00000 of jobs across to the first timers.
• The hawking zones must be set up with vendors getting legal status to ensure that they have a source of livelihood on prominent public places where the foot falls are high and can create income for people and also serve the public. This should once and for all end corruption and harassment of small business owners. This should create at least 1 crore vendors who can legally earn their livelihood by servicing the needs of the common man in urban and semi urban areas.
• Government must do its best to start reservation in jobs for people from economically weaker sections of the society, eunuchs and especially for orphans. If one is born handicapped or becomes an orphan ,does it mean that government leaves them at the

Mercy of the creator? It is a matter of real shame for the all the governments whether BJP or Congress that no one has taken any steps to give reservation for such children
• Academic and research institutes must also act as incubation centres for meritorious students and , as a norm , Government must make the framework to absorb 1 % of the best brains to be absorbed in the mentoring at the incubation centres. These incubation centres must be funded by the ‘National Innovation & Incubation Bank program’ which should be set up
• Gross enrolment ratio in higher education stands at 11 %. World average is 23 %. Government must put in all efforts to reach the world average in the next four years.
• SHG – Self help groups (Swabhimaan Plan) must be launched in the next six months at the taluka level. Government must form a frame work to organize women self help groups at block level for making them financially independent, and at the same time serve the society by different tie ups from corporates and government. The group must offer services exclusively and not through other channels to ensure success and self sufficiency. The government must create 50,000 SHG’s every year. This should create employment for 1-2 crore women across the country. Same should be applicable to unemployed youth. Government must give a formal legal frame work to SHG’s. A suitable law enabling micro-credit operations and nurturing them to be scaled up must be enacted.
• The government must also encourage & impress upon various corporates and government offices to give special lower rates to students for different products and services which should be 30-50 % lower than the normal market rates like telecom ,hard ware , travel etc.
• Special girls hostels and working women hostels should be established in every town
• Youth hostels should be set up on railway premises which should make cheap accommodation available to students travelling to various towns at actual costs. This Should create employment for 100000 people in the next five years
• 40 Technical institutes especially for women should be set up. 10 in each zone.
• NSS & NCC should be made more broad based & integral part of curricula for people to get involved on a compulsory basis during schooling, understand the rural set up, and also contribute to the development of the same via the NSS / NCC.

Employment Generation from Different initiatives
No. Initiative Total number of jobs generated
1 House-keeping and in house service tenders for youth 10 Lac
2 Legalization of Vendors 1 Crore
3 Self Help Groups for Women 1-2 Crore
4 Youth Hostels 1 Lac
5 Khadi & Village Industries –KVIC
For weavers, Handloom workers etc. 10 Lac direct
50 lac indirect
6 E-Governance , SMART Districts 50 Lac direct
25 Lac indirect
7 SME 2 Crore
8 Government jobs like Police force , Judiciary etc 6 Lac
9 Vocational Training Institutions 1 Lac
10 SOFZ –Special Organic farming & Food processing 10 Lac
11 Local manufacturing units of Global tender suppliers 1 Crore
12 Healthcare 30 Lac Direct
20 Lac Indirect
13 New Townships 25 Lac
15 Tourism 1 crore
16 Energy Sector 10 Lac
17 Yoga , Meditation and Sports centres 1 Lac
18 N.E. Region 5 Lac
19 Cooperative organizations 10 Lac
20 Electricity Meters 10 Lac
21 Post & Telegraph 10 Lac

Organised -Unorganised Sector: According to Sen Gupta report, in 2005, the total employment in Indian economy was 45.7 Crore. Of which, the unorganized sector accounted for 39.5 crore, or 86 percent. This unorganised sector has reduced the poverty by lifting people above the poverty line. The report also mentioned about the socio economic plight of workers from unorganised sectors. Low level of education and poor access to land denies workers access to good jobs in organised sectors.
Commission also found that 40-50 % of the men and 81-87 % of women get wages below the standard minimum wages
The government must commit to radical changes in the handling of this sector that is crucial as we not only need to create more employment opportunities but also create fair payment systems to these 45.7 crore population .
Urbanization of rural areas: This must aim not just to connect rural hinterlands to the urban belts but to provide the basics of urban India all across the country. The goal should be that in the next 10 years, there should be one India and rural world should cease to exist. PURA (Providing Urban Amenities in Rural areas) would be the thrust area of government
• Education, healthcare and infrastructure should be available within every five kilometres across the nation. Clean water and electricity in rural areas should be a top priority. Clean water is a must for rural areas as it causes 80 % of all diseases and ailments.
• Sanitation: 67 % of the rural population and 22 % of urban population has no access to toilets. This should be addressed in the next five years
• Help should be just a call away. The government should set up toll free numbers for connecting with the rural brethren in the times of need. Government must set up Private public partnerships to make this viable model giving the PPP a matchless opportunity in urban and rural India together. Government must evolve a framework so that no urban PPP contract should be allotted without a rural service clause. So urban and rural India should grow together.
• Further, the Golden Corridor project should be completed quickly. Now we need to add a new dimension by identifying and starting townships or economic hubs along the entire corridor

• Khadi and Village Industries Commission (KVIC) movement should be upgraded with better technology and the product portfolio should be extended to increase employment in rural areas. Weaver community, Power loom, hand loom, handicrafts and other untapped opportunities must be added to KVIC that is passing through hard times. Government may issue guidelines to the government staff to buy a quota of the official dresses from Khadi and Gram Udhyog to ensure the profitability of the sector. KVIC must be franchised to educated youth across the country in small and medium formats financed by the National Youth Bank .Handloom exports should be increased from today’s Rs.3000 Cr+ to Rs.10, 000 crore in the next five years. India’s strength in being the largest yarn producer should be innovatively harnessed. ‘Khadi’ as a brand should be globally positioned. All this is likely create employment for 100,0000 youth
Retail trade & Shopkeepers community- Retail is a big employer. According to RAI – Retailer Association of India, the Retail sector is estimated to be Rs.130000000000000.00 (Rs. 13 Lac Crore). There are 12 million retailers in the country. Every 200 Sq.feet of retail space employs one person, Specialty retail employs four people per 100 sq.ft and Hypermarkets employs one person per 300 Sq.ft. and these twelve million retailers actually support at least 8 times the same number in the associated industries like marketing , advertising ,logistics , house-keeping , packaging etc…

• Government must look at giving industry status to retail
• The entire thrust should be to get the best practices from all over the world for making the domestic retailers globally competitive and protect the domestic retailers
• The government must promote modern trade and set up a single window for clearance to ensure smoother functioning of retail. According to a 2003 study, a new shop needed, on average, 15 licenses from 11 government bodies and securing them took an average of six months and cost up to 500,000 rupees.
• Incentives Should be in place to set up world class supply chain infrastructure

In the matter of consumer articles of daily necessity, it is observed that despite adequate supplies available in the States, movement of goods from one state to another is still restricted. This policy, apart from creating artificial scarcity in some States also leads to rise in prices prejudicial to the interest of consumer. Harassment is also caused to traders on account of setup of Check Posts and barriers besides technical formalities of Road Permit and entry forms etc. The government must ensure that there is no barrier to the free movement of goods. System of entry forms & check post should be abolished. Time has come to withdraw, amend or drastically restructure all laws to facilitate smooth inter-state and intra-state trade, which is a prerequisite for a strong domestic market. Formation of ‘Trade Review Commission’ to look into, review and suggest measures to help make the environment conducive to traders and consumers

E-Governance – Today the world over, the public is becoming literate. Mobile phones are becoming the first computer. The mobile connections in India are close to 400 million. The density of mobiles has reached almost 40 %. It is high time that E-governance now converge to the next level in E-Governance. With 3G becoming a reality, the government should move closer to the public.
I believe more the number of offices to visit; more are the opportunity for corruption and bribes. SMART District program should eliminate the harassment of the common man. He / she would not require at all visiting multiple government offices but having a single window nearer to his home
• By issuing digital ID cards and also enable futuristic technologies that can be used to connect to the government departments via mobile and get the basic work done. Why should a citizen visit a government office unless necessary! If at all one needs to, the SMART District kiosks should be the first point to procure all forms, government records etc.
• Government must launch ‘SMART Districts’ program and set up government service kiosks across till the block level. People should go through these kiosks and not to offices to get the work done, so that they don’t even meet the officers, forget paying bribes to get a small certificate.
• These kiosks should only be awarded to economically weaker sections of all societies & unemployed youth. The government must plan to open about 10,000,00 Kiosks in the next 3 years employing at least 50 Lac youths who can read and write . Besides, the setting of the Kiosks should throw open another opportunities for at least 25 lac jobs. IT sector that is passing under a painful period should be used for domestic requirement. So that we can counter global slowdown with inward looking policy. Some of the services like government forms & collection of bills, Photo copy, and fax, STD / ISD should be serviced through these kiosks to ensure relevance and viability. Half of these Kiosks should be exclusively reserved for women. Who might find it convenient to work nearer to their homes?
• E-governance should also make government records digitalised and accessible to citizens without hassles today, people fear treading into a police station or a government office. Mechanism should be set in place to ensure accessibility nearer to the community. All government related permissions and works must become time bound, so that people should not have to wait indefinitely for a petty job to be done in the government office.
SME: Globally SME’s contribute more than 90 % to the manufacturing output in the developed world. In India, it is just 39 % and employ 1.3 crore people.
• The guidelines for units should be re-considered. Eligibility for SME’s should be revised upwards and re-worked to a limit of Rs. 5 Crore or more
• Government must pass strict guidelines to PSU’s to clear the payment due to SME’s within 30 days of the work being done or levy the market interest rates as penalty

• Government must seriously consider that a portion of the store purchases in defence and railways be reserved exclusively for SME’s
• Government must check the feasibility of exemption of earnest money and deposit security for SME when applying for government tenders
• The Government must revisit the criteria to be considered for audit limit as set up in 1984 from Rs.40 lac to Rs. 1 Crore.
• TDS process for SME’s should be revisited and re-looked
• More incentives should be granted for the SME with the goal to make SME sector contribute to more than 75 % of the total manufacturing output in the next 5 years.
• SSI Bases SEZ’s should be considered for every state. More so, near to the ports.
• A separate bank dedicated to serve the needs of SME (National SME Bank) should be considered. Besides introducing a national level institute that should special in SSI education leading to a BBA / MBA in SME.
• The Government must strive to create SME’s employing only women. There should be 25 SME’s in each zone ( North , East , West & South India ) fully funded by the ‘Progressive India venture fund’ set up to promote Women and youth empowerment . . All these efforts from the government Should lead to creation of atleast two crore jobs in the next five years
Police reforms, National Security & Terrorism: Lapses in National security has cost countless lives & we are at the mercy of terrorists today. Lawlessness is a norm and ordinary people to high and mighty are the victims in one form or another. Years ago, Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee had spoke about the fact, that Terrorism is not limited to geographies. We are under the evil shadow of lawlessness and terrorism and we should have to fight it out and finish it off. I have met up with people personally in North Eastern part of the country. If we fail to take immediate steps, country should be partitioned again soon. Assam is becoming a hot bed of Bangladeshi immigrants. AUDF is getting stronger only banking on Muslim votes of immigrant Bangladeshi’s. This has to end with a stern hand from the center.
It is glaring to note that;
• Last five years witnessed the most gruesome 19 attacks. A record of 63 blasts in 35 days. Assam, Oct 30, 2008 – 63 people killed, Imphal , Oct 21, 2008 – 17 people killed , New Delhi, Sept 13 , 2008- 26 people killed, New Delhi, Sept 27, 2008 – Three people Killed , Ahmedabad , July 26, 2008 – 57 people killed after 20 bombs went off in two hours, Bangalore , July 25, 2008 – One person killed, Jaipur, May 13, 2008 – 68 people killed in serial bombings, Faizabad , November 23, 2007- 15 people killed in Court bombings, Hyderabad , August 25,2007- 42 people killed in two blasts, Samjhauta Express , Feb 19, 2007- 66 people killed , Malegaon , Sept 8, 2006- 40 people killed in two blasts, Mumbai ,

July 11, 2006 – 209 people killed in seven blasts on sub-urban trains – the lifeline of Mumbai, Varanasi, March 7, 2006- 21 people killed in three blasts including one at the temple and another at the crowded railway station, New Delhi, Oct 29, 2005- 61 people killed in three blasts on the eve of Diwali
• The tribunal reviewing the ban on SIMI threw out the Government’s case because of the shoddy preparations and argued half heartedly. This is despite the fact , that SIMI activists have been behind the blasts in India
• Speedy trail of parliament attack was a deterrent to terrorists. There has been a failure of the government in its ability to understand and tackle terrorism.
• Today, India faces multiple threats to internal security from separatists in North East, Jammu & Kashmir; Maoists in 156 districts in 13 states; and Jehadis and terrorist sleeper cells all across the country.
• Prime Minister defined Maoists as the ‘Single largest threat to India’s internal security’. But did nothing beyond that. We need to take them heads on and throw them out.
• There is a strategically planned infiltration of Bangladeshis and Pakistan’s from Bangladesh’s borders.
• There has been no successful prosecution of terrorists in the last five years under the existing laws. On the contrary, Prime Minister equated Pakistan as a victim of terrorism. Whereas, Pakistan is the considered the most notorious nation and the cause and creator of global terrorism. We must declare Pakistan as a terrorist nation. Why wait for USA or UN to do that. We don’t need any proof.
The government must work on the possibility of the half yearly defence review to ensure the security, territorial integrity and unity of India. I mean it, when I say; we must take all necessary steps and exercise all available options in the interest of the nation.
• National security establishment should be well equipped with latest intelligence gathering techniques
• Super surveillance should be set up for checking ‘porous borders’ to avoid infiltration. Fencing of Bangladesh and Pakistan borders or equivalent measures should be taken
• NSG should be stationed in four zones in the country with their own fleet to reach any spot within 3 hours across the nation
• Special toll free number 2611 should be dedicated for complaints and information relation to terrorist activities. 2611 is in the memory of attacks that happened at Mumbai on 26 /11/08

• Special courts should be set up to try cases related to terrorism. Parliament attack convict should be hanged immediately
• The government must pledge to enact stringent legislation to combat terrorism. The New anti-terrorism act must incorporate measures recommended by the recent Administrative Reforms Commission and U.N. Resolution no.1373 on the subject
• The government must take effective steps for scrutiny, detection and repatriation of all illegal migrants from the country
• Defence must be re-looked and reinvigorated with a new vision. The goal should be to make India develop its own defence R&D and manufacturing capabilities and reduce the dependence on foreign procurement.
• By 2030, India should not procure rather supply arms and ammunitions to the world at cheapest prices. The automatic surveillance systems would be installed on all borders. India Should start the R&D center at Futuristic Weapon technology institute
The government must take all measures to ensure a better functioning of the police force & National security. Today, India has one police personnel for every 10,000 population this needs to be attended as it is crucial for a safe society and prerequisite to economic development.
• Police and armed forces should be equipped with latest ammunitions
• IT enabled, citizen centric police system should be put in place in the next two years. One of the ways it can change your experience is, that you can register a complaint anywhere and get it transferred online to the area of its jurisdiction automatically – Why should the victim run from pillar to post to lodge an FIR just to figure out the area of jurisdiction for registering an FIR? Functional and infrastructure reforms should be done ASAP
• National biometric Identity cards should l be issued to avoid infiltration and check extremists
• Watch your community program should be initiated at every community level to check any suspicious activities and people.
Education and vocational training. Educational goals should start with the basic premise that every child should go to school, every school must impart meaningful education, and everyone who is educated gets employment. One of the systemic failures has been the collapse of the education system. Once we had the Nalanda’s and Vikramshila’s of the world. Australia has 400,000 foreign students, Dubai has 50,000 and India has 27000! Today, people are going abroad to study. We need to reverse back this trend and start centres on the lines of Nalanda’s and Vikramshila’s again. I believe that six decades after independence is a time gap sufficient to review the educational system. We must re-look and envision the new education system keeping in mind that ‘Education and training is the fundamental right that should not just create employment & income for Indians, but also shape their character’. It is glaring to note that 2/3rd of our universities

And ninety percent of the colleges are said to be functioning at a ‘Below average level’. Further, with regard to the higher education, the National Knowledge Commission in 2006 stated that the participation rate of the population in the age group 18-23 is only around 7 percent. It is far below the developed countries and is only one-half of the average for Asia
• The government must strive its best to raise the level of the education system & appoint a National Commission of Education to formulate the new national policy for Education. Capacity building should be one of its major responsibilities .Today, degrees are being scattered and there is not much value attached to this, the same must be addressed. The Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan must be strengthened and the Mid-day meal scheme be improvised
• The government must operationalise the constitutional amendment of Education as Fundamental right. The promised allocation of the GDP percentage should be strictly adhered to
• Capacity building should be one major thrust area
• There are 2800 diverse trades in India; each requires sound domain knowledge and good skills. Vocational course loans must be started for students undergoing a vocational training without any guarantee.
• In the next five years, we must set up and upgrade at least 25 world class universities across India. This Should transform our AIIMS to IIMS ( International Institute of Medical Sciences ) , IIM’s to ( International Institute of Management) , IIT’s to IIT’S ( International Institute of Technology ) to raise the bar and position them as Global institutes of excellence and research. We must upgrade the REC’s , RMC’s and Regional Management Institutions to the level of IIT’s , IIM’s & AIIMS to ensure that people don’t have to wait & forego education despite talent due to lack of seats
• The focus should also go beyond IIT / IIM’s. The government must set up four International Institutes of Nano Technology (IINT) one in each zone (north, east, west, and south).
• More importantly, government must set up 100,000 vocational training institutes across the nation and this itself should generate employment opportunities for 1 crore people directly as staff of these training institutes. Provision must be made for certification of skills acquired traditionally or through private initiatives.
• The government must set up National Skills Development Authority to oversee the requirements for various skills in different regions from time to time
• The government must dedicate four International centres of excellence and innovation for low cost technologies in all four zones across the nation.

• Scientists working in all R&D labs must co-own the patents so as to reap the monetary benefits of commercialization of such patents. This Should be a big incentive for getting the scientists back to India
Cultivation & Agriculture (IEC- Irrigation, Electricity & Credit) –
Everything else can wait but not agriculture – Jawaharlal Lal Nehru
Food is an important weapon in our arsenal. We can use it for bargaining – U.S. Under Secretary
I believe that this Nation is a nation of ‘Rishi’ and ‘Krishi’.
Agriculture must remain the basic fundamental of our economic strength and core focus of our plans. More than 80 % of the farms are smaller than 5 acres. Moreover, between 1971 -96 the average size of the farms have reduced from 2.3 to 1.4 acres. The input costs have risen dramatically and the cost of living in rural areas have gone up substantially adding to this, are the high cost of loans thus making agriculture unviable for most the farmers . Agriculture needs to grow at 4 % for the economy to grow at 9 %. Currently, it is under negative growth as per the Q3 2008-09 estimated at – 2 %. I believe that there are four prerequisites for a good yield, profitable prices, availability of Irrigation, Electricity and timely credit besides,
• Currently, Governments investment in agriculture is miniscule 0.5 % of GDP. This must be increased to 5 % over the next five years.
• Agriculture must be supplemented by Seri-Culture, Animal husbandry & Poultry, Fisheries, horticulture, Floriculture, Diary and cattle breeding to enhance the income of farmers. There should be special attention in framing the micro policies for the rural sector empowerment and growth.
• Agricultural profitability needs to be addressed by providing newer techniques, higher yield varieties and new farm practices like organic farming.
• Setting of SOFZ – Special Organic Farming zones on the lines of SEZ. At present only 8000 Organic farming exists in India employing 30000 farmers. World over, the use of organic foods is on the rise. Countries like Europe, North and South America, Finland, Canada, Denmark and Sweden have a great demand for organic food. It is expected, that the world market for Organic food would be between 35-40 Billion US Dollars (175000 -200000 Crore rupees). The Organic farming revolution has to spread swiftly and the government must set up a special Task force to oversee the growth of organic farming. The processed organic foods , Should provide employment to atleast 100,0000 people
• MSP- Minimum Support Price for agriculture produce must be fixed on as recommended by the National Farmer’s Commission .i.e. 50 % profit over the cost of production. But this

Should not be the right approach, unless the correct parameters for fixing the cost of production are arrived at like the notional cost of land, labour, opportunity loss.
• Direct Selling direct to customers to get better price for their yield
• Food processing of the agriculture produce. Today food processing is below 3 % of the value of our agriculture produce. The action plan must be set up in place to increase this to 10 percent within 5 years. This should lead to the creation of another 25 lac jobs. The foremost task of food processing in India is to reduce the distance between production and processing points.
• Farm credit based on average yield for five years need to be worked out and rolled out at the earliest.
• Focussed steps must be taken to better irrigation facilities and promote rain water harvesting at every Panchayat level.
• Nationwide irrigation program ‘varsha’ must be launched
• A “National Farmers and Micro credit bank” must be established to cater to the needs of Agriculture sector should be set up.
• A technology up gradation team should be set up with concrete time bound goals to bring modern farming and food processing techniques to India and spread them all across for increasing the output and decrease loss of crops.
• Agriculture and food processing ministry must be merged into one.
• A case study approach should be the responsibility of the government to improve the conditions in the sector.
• The union government must set up a National Agriculture Improvement Centre with branches in all five zones to cater to the farmers for their specific issues.
• The farmer’s development council must be set up in each state with set goals for improvement and implementation of plans.
• Farmers must be connected to technology & cold storage hubs for easy access of information
• Plan would be in place to give credit to farmers based on the credit rating based on the last five years produce. This should be simple and transparent process.
• The small farmers should be entitled to interest free credit for one year.

• For irrigation the government must launch ‘More crops per drop’ campaign to encourage drip irrigation to increase the yield per hectare.
• SHG should be extended to the female members of the farmer’s family to increase the income of the family.
• Each district should have a Chief Agriculture & Irrigation officer to oversee and proactively support the farmers in the district.
• Agriculture focus should be micro managed with special departments under the ministry to oversee , vegetable production, cash crops, Wheat and rice, Pulses, organic farming , Agro food processing
• Agriculture labourers need to be paid on hourly basis
• The government must create in four regions special zones for manufacturing Agriculture implements. For implements not manufactured in India , they can be imported without duty
• Coconut, Palm, Coir and rubber boards should be established in Tamilnadu and Assam.
• Namakkal is the main center in Tamilnadu for supply of Eggs to other states and foreign markets. A central Poultry research center should be established in Namakkal.
• National River interlinking project can only address the issue of floods and draught and the government must implement it without fail so that the dependence on weather Gods becomes a little less.
Transport: India needs cheaper, faster and safer connectivity to smaller towns and between smaller towns to bigger towns. Students, women cannot be travelling with the office goers and vice versa.
• Government must ensure that women, students & office goers have separate buses and trains in towns where and when they need most. The same must apply for handicapped category. The life becomes mechanical spending hours of daily travel in jam packed and suffocating environment. Government must try addressing this issue on priority basis. An average Indian suffers most of the health problems not because of work but because of the poor conditions to travel to work. Government should seriously address this issue to make life and India better. Mumbai locals should be started for students and more ladies special trains should be started. Same should be applicable to other towns
• Government should also work with the state governments on a plan to upgrade the hand cart rickshaws to peddle rickshaws, peddle rickshaws to electric or fuel driven tempos
• Those with old taxis should be given tax breaks and low interest loans to upgrade to fuel efficient cars as taxis. Most of the towns have yellow and black taxis. The government must

Take all possible steps to modernise them for better earning opportunities and comfort of the travellers.
• India needs also needs better airports. But despite newer airports, the congestion has gone up and so have the congestion tax and other taxes and also the risk associated with air accidents. Government must work out better conditions and value for people who spend a lot of money on air travel.
Banking & Finance: is the core to India’s growth story. Government must look to start a few innovative banking initiatives besides strengthening the existing banking and finance sector.
• Government must look at a National Students Bank. Which should be managed majorly by the student’s community and work for providing new opportunities to unleash the creative power of the educated youth and harness the entrepreneurial instincts of students? This bank should work closely with the incubation centres established in various educational and research institutes
• The role of development banks and financial institutions should be enlarged to provide necessary funds for the projects critical to the achieve 8- 10 % growth rate.
• The following new banks Should be set up
No. Bank Sector
1 National Innovation & Incubation Bank Researchers & Entrepreneurs out of Universities and colleges
2 National SME Bank SME
3 National Farmers & Micro Credit Bank Farmers and farm related heads
4 National Students Bank Managed & run by students for their needs

Judiciary. The United Nations Development Program says some 20 million legal cases are pending in India. The High Court in New Delhi is so behind in its work that it could take up to 466 years to clear the enormous backlog, the court’s chief justice said in a damning report that illustrates the decrepitude of India’s judicial system. Chief Justice A.P. Shah of Delhi high court said in the report that “it would take the court approximately 466 years” to clear the pending 2,300 criminal appeals cases alone. Independence of judiciary does not mean that it is not accountable to the people, the ultimate sovereign
• Government should take this as a top priority to enable speedy judicial system by filling all vacant posts within two years of taking over the government.
• The criteria and system of recruitment of judges needs to be changed
• Also, it should attempt its best to ensure the system is overhauled at the earliest possible.
• Digitalization of records should be taken up
• Witness protection plan should be worked out
• Whistleblower bills Should be introduced
• Cases related to political and bureaucratic corruption should be tried on a out of turn basis or special courts should be set up for the same
• Civil and Criminal procedure codes which are over hundred years old should be suitably amended for speedy justice
• Family courts and fast track courts to be increased.
• Alternative dispute redressal mechanisms though Lok Adalats and tribunals must be expanded and strengthened
• Government must ensure that a corpus is created to an amount of Rs.5000 Crores to modernise the infrastructure of court rooms with proper seating arrangement for attendees and lawyers.
• Judicial data should be published every year. This should not only help in reducing delays, but also make the legal system more transparent and accountable to the people, and enhance the image of judiciary in the public eye.
• Government must take all steps to work out a system so that the criminal cases can be disposed within two years and judgement pronounced within two weeks of completion of arguments
• Punishment of economic offence should be made more stringent with imprisonment and exemplary fine
• Jail System should be worked out on ‘top priority’ to prevent over-crowding of Jails
• Judiciary discretion wastes a lot of time. Government should look at introducing guidelines for use of judicial discretion
• For serious offences, the government should work towards speedy justice to restore the faith in the system.
Poverty Alleviation. According to the World Banks release mid 2008, there were 421 million poor below USD 1.25 a day in 1981. Now that number has increased to 456 million in 2005. This clearly shows that the programs of the government have failed to deliver on the socio economic growth. According to several reports, almost 600 million plus people survive on a dollar a day. This is

After 61 years of freedom. The true and sustainable economic development of India is possible when these people become the earning and spending class. No one can stop India that day from becoming an economic super power. I have not seen any government giving a correct solution to create an earning and a spending class out of the 600 million Indians. We can really become a super power if we just focus on this class of people. We need to address the basics
• Government must start programs at the lowest ladder in the society to create self employment opportunities to them and push them out of poverty by providing them FOOD, CLOTHING AND HEALTHCARE. Urban poverty is worse and this is not just an inconvenience to the urban infrastructure but also is a menace to the society, as all evils spring from these slums.
• The government should come out with a time bound policy to phase out slums across India by 2015.
• This must include construction of low cost housing facilities. The government should make laws to make renting easier by providing a strong, simple and easily enforceable legal frame work to protect the interest of both the tenants and the land lords.
New thrust areas for bold actions
Economy of the people, by the people and for the people of this country:
Model envisioned by government must
• Make Indians proud of their products
• Make Indian brands internationally acceptable
• Make India politically and Economically strong so that it can never be ignored in international arena
• Provide adequate levels of consumption
All the programs undertaken by Government Should be guided by one goal,
To provide Food, clean water, Clothing & healthcare for all.
• The Public distribution system must be strengthened to ensure that the people don’t go to bed empty stomach. No matter in which part of the country they stay , they must have access to clean and hygienic drinking water ,
• The khadi and Gram village must be integrated with PDS to provide cheaper garments for all seasons

• Government must work for making primary & secondary healthcare be available within 5 & 10 Kilometres maximum to all across the nation We must be proud of our technology , scientists , competent work force & the Quality of products.
• Government must work towards making this an integral part of all Global tendering processes. Anyone, who qualifies for a tender above 1000 crore needs to have a manufacturing unit in India or set up the plant in India as a precondition to apply for the tender, This is one sure shot way of making India a hub for manufacturing . Also, why we should not derive value locally for the work done for domestic requirements? This Should be passed with taking necessary approvals .This has the potential to create one crore jobs for skilled and educated professionals
Village Republic Scheme (VRS) & BOARD. Till the villages become self sufficient, India can never dream to be a developed nation. This is fundamental to government’s vision. The BOARD (Base organisation for agriculture and rural development) should work alongside Panchayats for making each of the six lac Indian villages self sufficient. The composition of the BOARD Should be of the two local Panchayat members ( One male ,one female ), MLA’s representative , BDO, ASHA, Patwari and two – five members from NSS / NCC / NGO’s / Local Police representative . The BOARD should set the vision and target to make each village self sufficient in every manner in the next three years.
Healthcare – India is sitting on a ticking time bomb when it comes to healthcare. It is now fact the India is infamously moving towards becoming the ‘Diabetic’ and ‘Cardiac’ capital of the world due the highest prevalence of these chronic diseases. Currently ,There is an average of one urban primary health facility for about 150000 urban population, with only 2-4 health workers, There are a total of 22,370 primary health centres functioning across the country, and the shortfall is of 4,833 PHCs, there is a shortage of 2,525 CHCs across the country, 1.5 Lac people get ESRD failure per year. Only 3500 undergo kidney transplants, about 6000 get dialysis, rest die. 2 people die of TB every minute; 1000 every day, 4 million children die due to pneumonia on an annual basis in India, 6 % have access to Ambulance service, and the bed to population ratio is 0.70. Per 1000 population, to reach a 3 bed: 1000 population, India needs 3 lac beds. An average rural Indian walks two Km’s to reach a chemist , 6 Km’s for a blood test and 20 Km’s for a hospital, almost 25 % of all the drugs sold in India are fake or sub standard.

• The GDP spend on healthcare should be doubled by 2014
• Government must take all the necessary steps within its frame work to logically develop the industry with thrust into reduction of duties / levies on medical equipment
• Bringing pharmaceuticals within the health ministry to ensure proper co-ordination
• Focus on preventive diagnostics and chronic care management & geriatric care. This has the potential to save billions of rupees and millions of lives.
• The focus must be on tele-medicine and tele-diagnostics

• Increase rebate on preventive care and not just on health insurance to really benefit the stake holders in the continuum of care. All working class people are entitled to rebate of Rs.15000 for expenses towards medical insurance. The same should be increased to Rs.10, 000 for preventive check-ups and Rs.15000 for medical insurance. This is one major incentive for healthcare sector to grow at a faster rate, and will make it worthwhile for people to invest in the healthcare sector
• I believe that one of the critical areas that need attention is saving lives by Organ transplants. We intend to set up 100 organ transplant centers across the country and start a national registry for donors with proper incentives. 78000 people die on road accidents every year. Even if 25 % donated the organs. It would be a death leading to birth of someone; means adding a new life to someone who needs an eye, liver, heart, kidney transplant. This should be covered under ‘Rebirth’ program started by Government with a lot of incentive to donors
• Healthcare along the roadways and air ambulance services should start for rural India where tertiary and emergency care services are not easily accessible.
• Clean water is one of the pre-requisites for good health and the government should implement a time bound scheme to implement clean water scheme in all Panchayats areas.
• India has to have a world class healthcare infrastructure. Government should work towards making primary healthcare at your doorsteps a reality and emergency care at your call.
• In Next five years, government must ensure that people will not have to travel more than 50 KMS for serious illnesses.
• Government should start 100 institutes of nursing across India. There is a shortage of 32 lac nurses and we should strive to fill this gap.
• Government must work for recruiting 100,0000 health workers to spread information about various chronic diseases and help people to keep fit through information , education and communication.
• The government must enter into PPP to set up 100,000 day care centers across India for minor procedures and immunization. All these should be the nodal centers to issue the Electronic health records and for basic preventive checkups.
• Government should also set up 100,000 chronic care centers across the nation to address the issue of chronic care.
• These initiatives should create about 31 Lac direct jobs & 20 lacs jobs associated indirectly for setting the infrastructure in the healthcare sector in the next three to five years.
• Government should enter into PPP for low cost healthcare model to drive healthcare nearer to the people and diseases away from people without compromising on the quality of care.
• FSI – for hospitals, the FSI should be doubled or trebled compared to the commercial property. PPP hospitals must be allowed to build residential and commercial space within its ‘zone’, and appropriate FSI should be allocated for the same

Adopt a child, senior citizen, Village, School & PHC scheme – The society cannot be happy if the senior citizens just depend on government schemes and lead lonely & isolated lives. They also need to spend time and mix with people and contribute to the society with their experience.
• The government should open senior citizens home in every town.
• “Adopt a senior citizen scheme” should give certain relief to the family who adopts a senior citizen. Hopefully, it should bring smile to a senior citizen.
• The same should follow for a child. Government should also set similar schemes for adoption of villages, schools and PHC’s by professionals , industrialists and NGO’s to bring about a revolution at the ground level in the society
Administrative & Governance reforms – Government must initiate a review of the outdated systems and implement the best practices in governance and administration to ensure speed and efficiency of the system and eliminate unnecessary procedures and simplify others. Efficiency, accountability and pro-common man attitude should be hall mark of the administrative system in the years to come.
• The recommendations of the joint consultative group should be implemented without delay & in total
• Civil service system Should be reformed
• New cadre system and modern service code should be adopted to enable professionalism at all levels in the administration. Senior officers Should be suitably empowered to take timely and bold decisions
• Responsibility and accountability Should be fixed for the fulfilment of goals and targets
• Officers should be allowed to work in private sectors. Similarly, lateral entry of talented professionals from private sector at senior levels Should be encouraged
• Objective criteria Should be laid down for use of discretionary powers
• Planning commission Should be reformed and re-organized in light of the changing developmental needs of the country
• Post the Satyam Scam, it has become imperative to strengthen the entire supervisory and regulatory mechanism including SEBI, MCA etc to ensure best practices and fair return to investors. This is also important to keep the faith in the system and for attractive image of the corporate world. , Government should revisit and revise some of the laws related to corporate governance in companies (Both Private and Public) to ensure that the facts are placed before and acted upon. Unless, private companies become more transparent in their

Internal processes and external dealings, scams will keep happening and people will continue losing money, faith and this will adversely impact the image of the corporate world. Needless, to mention that all private companies only become public at one stage. Government should address this issue seriously.
• Government should undertake a review of all the laws and regulations relating to industry so as to free it from bureaucratic control; institute a system that ensures compliance with the law including speedy redressal of the grievances
• Government must abolish the rules providing protection to bureaucracy from enquiry and prosecution for corruption.
• Revamping the municipal system Should be one of the thrust areas for a citizen centric approach

Special abilities – disabled, BPL, Beggars & Destitute – Disabled people constitute 5 % of the country’s population. Destitute and beggars are never a part of any government schemes nor are they covered by the census properly. In an all inclusive growth, all these categories have to be taken care of as the total responsibility of the government
• Government must work out a ‘Real India Plan’ that should take of the special needs of the disabled, BPL, Beggars & Destitute. We understand the plight of these people. Their needs are small but they have tremendous ability & potential to work hard and contribute to their upliftment and growth of this nation’s economy.
• The needs of these special classes of people like transport – food, clothing and healthcare Should be taken care of by the ‘Real India plan’ that Should not only provide them the basics, but also train them to become self sustaining community. When they earn, they would be provided with peddle cycle, carts etc at government subsidized rates. Travel via general class rail would be free for all these card holders.
• Special provision would be made to relocate and train them to places where they can get employed and earn respectfully without relooking into their past or special abilities
Urban infrastructure: I believe that the faulty policies of the ruling governments have created 2-3 towns with best infrastructure and all most all towns do not have even decent roads. Migration is encouraged as the entire focus is towards two or three towns only. Everyone wants to transform Mumbai into Shanghai but no one talks about converting Shahjahnpur , Hardoi , Nampalli or Ballia into Mumbai !!
• On one side we Should create more towns and allow new units to be set up there with long term incentives and

• On the other side, work towards decongestion of over populated downs through well planned measures.
• Government must set the pace for at least 25 new world class towns in India in the next five years so that our next generation does not have to struggle for the daily chores and the job related travel.
• This has the potential to create 25 lac jobs
Tourism – India should achieve the status of being the spiritual capital of the world
• Government must promote this tourism– Cultural or spiritual tourism in addition to medical tourism. This has the potential be the third largest employment & revenue generator after retail and the government should make the best of it.
• Regional centres of tourism should be started in five zones across the country along with institutes to impart specialised education in these sectors. The goal would be, to become a global center for tourism both medical and non-medical. Government should ensure that all hurdles are removed in achieving the goal within the next five years
• Tourism has the potential to create 1 crore jobs in the next five years
Energy & Environment – The Global warming is a Global warning for all of us to get serious about the future of our next generation. We all love our children but we are not blessing them by leaving a healthy environment. Government must take all Steps including drafting of stringent legislation to protect the environment, save it from pollution, degradation and ensure a greener earth. Also, the future of entire economy depends upon the clean and green energy. Government must acknowledge the importance of both and should leave no stone unturned to make Energy and Environment an ‘Urgent & Important’ issues to be addressed
• Advanced institute of green technology should be started
• Afforestation, social forestry and agro- forestry should be started all over India
• Re-cycled product industries should be enjoying special concessions in tax structure.
• Same should apply to solar energy and alternative fuels.
• Electric vehicles should be made tax free and the government should use the best of resources to provide them incentives for growth and profits.
• Ethanol production should be incentivised
• New towers more than 2 storeys should have to be green buildings. Green buildings should be given the necessary fast track clearances within 30 days on priority.

• All the government buildings that can be converted to green buildings should be converted within the next three years. A special Green fund should be set aside for this.
• New buildings should have wind mill or solar panels for passage lights
Energy: With a focus to provide uninterrupted electricity to all parts of the country in the next 10 years. Government should lay an action plan that encompasses the use of nuclear power, wind energy, solar energy, Hydro power, enhanced exploration & Bio fuels to make India self sufficient to meet its power & fuel needs.
• If need be, PPP route should be taken to achieve the goals.
• Smaller dams , Hydro electric plants Should be one of the principles in shaping the vision for power sufficiency
• Government should work within the framework and help formulate a policy to replace all the electricity meters across the country to digital meters starting with Metros. The electricity bills should be visual with photo to avoid tempering with the bills. Only youths should be employed to take the meter readings. This Should throw open opportunities for at least 10 lac jobs
Loans & Housing – This sector needs serious actions from the government in terms of more number of houses to be built. This sector has a cascading affect on growth because a whole lot of sectors are associated with its growth like this sector employs 25 million people, and associated industries like cement, iron and steel, finance etc taken together employ much more
• Government should pursue the agenda of affordable housing at affordable interest rates that are fixed for the entire duration of the loan tenure to ensure that the common man’s budget does not get hit due to frequent changes in the interest rates
• The government must build a large number of houses for rental purpose only and not for sale to drive the cost of the flats down for the common man
• The government should appoint a housing regulator within one year to protect the interest of the home buyers on the lines of IRDA, TRAI.
• For two wheelers and small cars, the loan rates would be lesser than medium and sedans or SUV’s.
• Corporate loans should be at a reduced rates for SME’s and start ups below 5 years in operations

Goods & Services Tax (GST ) – I believe that the government should ensure that GST is designed and implemented flawlessly, it would ensure that a substantially common , yet cumulatively much bigger tax base for the center and state, so that the center and states Should benefit from a much bigger tax base. I believe in the Ability of the GST – enabled unified pan-India market to reduce burden and produce huge macro-economic dividends – It is estimated that the economic value of GST would be half trillion dollars or half of India’s GDP. This would enhance the buoyancy of the states revenues as well. Today 40 % of the government tax collections in the country go to the states even as centre and states share annual development expenditure in the ratio of 2:3.
• The government Should remove tax and duties on by cycles , peddle rickshaws to enable economically weaker sections to use this as an incentive to grow faster
Yoga , Mediation & Sports (YMS ) – A national YMS promotion task force with a dedicated fund of Rs. 1000 crore Should be set up to promote the same across India in a systematic manner . This has the potential to create one lac jobs & drastically improve the well being of its citizens
Labour laws – According to the Sen Gupta report , ninety one percent of the total work force of around 39 crore is in the unorganised sector .Government s should make labour , both organised and unorganised , an equal and proud partner in the production of the nation’s wealth and in its progress . Laws relating to equal pay for equal work for men and women shall be strictly implemented.
Population Control – The real issue for corruption, lack of good governance and poor economic growth is its huge and ever increasing population. We need to address this issue ASAP. None of the government has focussed on the issue seriously due to vote bank politics. A suitable and judicious mix of incentives and disincentives for population control should be presented early so that national commitment on this critical issue is obtained
• A people’s movement should be launched to realise the goals and targets set in the National Population policy. States lagging behind should be focussed more.
• The Government should introduce a set of non-coercive disincentives for a two child norm, and incentives for a girl child. Two child norm Should be made a qualification , on a prospective basis , for contesting any election
Constitutional & Electoral reforms: The Government should set up a Constitutional reforms commission to review the constitution of India in light of the experience in the past 60 years and to make suitable recommendations
• Government Should introduce necessary electoral reforms on the basis of the recommendation of the Goswami committee so as to deal with glaring issues that might reform the politics and ultimately , the governance of the nation

• Consensus Should be evolved to prevent entry of criminal elements into politics
• Government should seek to work towards raising the standards of parliament and state legislature
• Government should work towards holding the Union & State elections together
• A national institute for training elected representatives Should be established
• Currently, we have the M.P.’s and other representatives based on the census of 1970’s. We must realise that the population has grown tremendously, and we need to increase the number of public representatives based on the 2001 census. Every ten years, we must match the number of representatives to the population ratio. Today each M.P. represents a population of 1.9 million. It is humanly impossible to reach out to such a huge number of residents. So there is a complete disconnect between the representatives and the populace. No wonder, the voters are not enthused to come out and vote. It is not about not being serious about voting, but an average voter does not know his M.P.’s very well. If it is not so, how can you expect one to vote? If need be , we must build a new parliament house to seat the increased number of representatives and same in states for legislative assemblies or use teleconference to do the proceedings . Anyways, both the parties have talked of taking the broad band to villages.
• The salaries of the public representatives should be enhanced as they have a big responsibility on their shoulders. Why should a President, Prime Minister, Ministers and other public representatives not draw salaries better than the corporate world? When they draw 8 figure salaries , then only we will have the best of people drawn to it and people will also question their contribution
• I had raised in 2003 an issue of giving an option ‘None of the above found suitable ‘in the ballot paper. This way, we will be able to incentivise the concerned citizens to come out and vote.
Defence forces: Dignity, status, Respect and attraction of the defence forces has reached the lowest level, with people returning the medals back to the government. Government must recognise the importance of Defence forces and should ensure that they not just treated as security men but the custodians responsible for the safety of the Nation.
• Removing bottle necks that lead to delays in decision making for defence establishment
• On priority, latest arms and ammunitions should be provided to the force.
• Parity in status with other services at appropriate level
• Betterment of career prospects and service conditions of all ranks

• Revamping and strengthening the existing mechanisms to resolve individual and collective problems specially of personnel below officer rank
• One Rank one pension as recommended by successive governments
• Government should commit to make the salaries of defence forces better by giving them additional tax incentives
R&D: The government should encourage and rewards innovation and R&D in all sectors should special incentive for milestones in each and every step. The government should incentivise the regional educational centres to be become the incubation hubs at the institute levels itself. A special fund of 1000 Cr should be set up for this purpose. Scientists should be able to co-own the patents with the institutes to monetise it in case of commercialization of the patent
Income & taxes: The slab for deduction for LTC, Children education and meal vouchers should get enhanced substantially based on the current spends level to give relief to the earning class. Today the meal vouchers and education allowance are not comparable to what the citizens actually pay. Though the government is charging taxes comparable to the United States, but the public services are not even 1/1000 part of what US does for its citizens
Defence technology SEZ: the government should work towards making India as worldwide supplier of defence uniforms, parachutes, small arms, night vision devices and bullet proof material. India already has capabilities for the same
Export Oriented SEZ for wine – India produces world class grapes and wine Industry can be a good revenue earner as there is a great demand for good quality wine worldwide. This can bring in good income for wine orchards, farmers and processing units
North East Region – the problem with the North eastern states is, that the government has failed to understand and act on the needs of these regions. The biggest issue there is that there is no source of employment created for the youth of those states.
• The Government should take all measures within its framework to dedicate special infrastructure and employment plan that can be implemented within the next three years. All this is likely to raise the earning potential of the region many fold and take the region to heights of prosperity.
• Development of communication infrastructure to overcome the constraints of physical distance
• The plan should encompass setting up a North Eastern tourist grid

• Settings up industries which are based on the natural resources of north east like the herbal medicines and bamboo based industries.
• Further IT industry should be given impetus as that can ideally work in hilly areas.
• Setting up small Hydro Electric plants in North East region
• North East has popular traditional folks culture, if marketed well, can drive in a lot of new opportunities. Government is expected to make it happen.
• These efforts Should create 5 lac jobs in North East
National Task force for Animal husbandry, Milk processing, Food processing and fisheries Should be set up with time bound goals to make India amongst the top three producers in the world. The frame work to achieve the goal should be in place within the next three years. This is the best way to increase the earning ability of the rural & coastal India.
Post & Telegraph – Post and Telegraph have a matchless network covering all the pin codes in the country. I believe that post offices present a matchless opportunity to increase services to every nook and corner of the country and to create at least 10 lac jobs via PPP with Telegraphs and posts network. The government should use this opportunity to not only modernise the post offices but also create value for the public and the government with a special focus on rural India
Private Public Partnership – So far, most of the private public partnerships have not done much over a long period of time, we understand that government has limitations but also has the responsibility to deliver on the expectations of people. Government must appoint a PPP Regulator. An autonomous body to identify implement & monitor the PPP. This should ensure a smooth roll out in all sectors
Cooperative Movement – Cooperative movement is crucial for the success of rural economy. I believe that cooperative movement must be radically reformed to make it more relevant at the taluka level to India’s growth story. This has a high employment potential. If property reformed, this can create fresh 10,000.00 jobs across the nation. The cooperative movement is not just limited to milk production, but also to oil and Beedi production
Consumer protection movement Should be strengthened and proactive steps should be taken to protect the interest of consumers. Also, that the consumer protection is not just about products and services
Media & Sting Operations -
Media should be given more teeth. Sting operations must be made legal and a special court should be set up to look into the exposes made out of such operations. The journalists should be given security for ‘high level’ expose

Disaster Management apparatus should be reviewed and strengthened
Common Civil Code. All the parties should be taken into confidence and a common civil code should be adopted.
Backward – BIMARU States: Government must focus on special projects to take the economy & employment to the next level. Though, in the last five years most of the Bimaru states have notched good growth, still a lot needs to be done,
Tribal Development – 7 % of the Indian population is tribal. This needs to be attended with sensitivity and a planned needs to be evolved for their development and getting them into mainstream. Which includes?
• SSI for tribal’s
• Industry based on local natural resources
• Promote tribal and traditional folk
• Special quota in police and armed forces
Wool Production – India is the world’s second largest wool producer. However, the wool industry is by and large at a low level of quality and value realization. An action based time bound plan should be placed in the first year to modernise and expand the wool production
Good Governance:
• The government should review all its commitments and progress every six months and review the same at the public vigilance committees (PVC) appointed at every district / taluka level.
• The public vigilance committees should consist of citizens from all walks of life. This should ensure that we stay committed and on track when it comes to fulfilling in our commitments. The PVC Should serve as a watch dog on our time bound action plan that we Should release on all Priority issues within 30 days of coming to power
Foreign Policy: Government should pay the highest attention, to not only enhance Indian role in international affairs, but should, also, ensure that India’s vital national and security interests are fully projected and protected, so that it can contribute meaningfully to the global community and deal with the challenges of the future and boldly assert its position on key issues. Few contours of the Foreign policy:

• UN- India Should support all efforts at a further democratisation of the UN structure and system and Should pursue to Secure a permanent seat in the UN security council
• Out a more Work closely with G-8 , to bring about a more balanced economic order which would seek to ensure that the current global disorder is overcome at the earliest so that the developing countries in particular , are not disadvantaged any further
• Strengthening the SAARC Process
• China. While the normalising relations with China Should retain and eminent position in foreign policy, it is , at the same time, expected that China too , Should display sensitivity to India’s position on various issues which have plagued our relations over the last 50 years. India also expects China to avoid any future violations of NPT.
• Pakistan: Peace is the precondition to the development of both the countries. Somehow, Pakistan has not been able to convince India on its track record to ensure peace in the region. Government should be supportive of a widening of contacts and ensuring peace and stability in the region, working with Pakistan on resolving land standing and urgent issues in the interest and as per the will of the people of India
• Europe: The EU is a valuable source of technology and investments. Relations with EU should figure prominently in the foreign policy initiatives. We Should do everything possible to further strengthen our relationship , consistent with our national interest
• Strengthen our bond with USA nuclear and seek revision of certain clauses of the Indo-US nuclear deal which adversely impact on India’s nuclear program and profile
• Relations with Russia needs to be further consolidate
• West Asia and North Africa: Government should rejuvenate our old ties and traditional bonds of friendship with the Arab world, as well as intensify our cooperation with the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council).
• Bangladesh: Government should convince the old neighbour that harbouring N.E. Insurgents and terrorists should be highly counterproductive. A positive response to India on cooperation in the economic filed, including transit, Should be beneficial to both countries. Bangladesh must also pay urgent heed to and extend full cooperation to India to check the illegal influx of Bangladeshis to India in case it is keen to have cordial relations with India

• Sri-Lanka. India supports a united Sri Lanka in which both the communities can realise their aspirations. The India –Sri Lanka agreement of 1987, provides an important & immediate starting point for the peaceful resolution of the problem. We note the successful implementation of FTA and favour an early conclusion of the CEPA ( Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement ), to the satisfaction of both the countries
• Nepal: Indo – Nepal relations are age-old and are based on ties of geography, history, culture & religion. These Should be maintained and further reinforced
• Japan and Korea. Both economic as well as political relations with the economic power houses of Asia, namely, Japan and Korea Should be further developed
• Afghanistan. Indio’s relation with Afghanistan has been traditionally close. We Should continue to firmly support the present government in that country , and at the same time , take all steps to further enhance the security around Indian projects and the Indian embassy and consulates in that country
• Iran. We value our strong economic ties so far. These Should be sustained with positive fallouts to the mutual benefit of both countries
• Africa and Latin America. Relations with Africa and Latin America should be enhanced with great vigour. Further groupings like IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa) should be encouraged to the benefit of all countries concerned. Further cooperation Should also aim at energy self sufficiency
• NRI & PIO’s. The role of NRI’s and PIO’s in the qualitative enhancement of India’s image abroad and their investments in India are warmly acknowledged. They should continue to be accorded high priority.

There is more than what meets the eye- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted July 6, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Global recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution, Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

July 6, 2009

Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Member of Parliament
Lok Sabha, New Delhi 110001.

Dear Dr.Joshi,

Thanks for the call. It was a pleasure talking with you again. I have always appreciated your approach of being connected to the common man, recognizing the talent, promoting it , and talking straight, no matter what!

As advised, I am sending my inputs not just for the Economic survey and the budget, but also on the overall situation facing the government.

I have been following the budget & the overall situation in India. Budget is a routine event. As I had expected, budget did not give any answers but only raised a few questions! As always, Congress has been known as pro-rich and propaganda-wise, pro-poor. Common man is just a slogan . Under the new tax structures, people who earn more will have to pay less tax. This is what Congress regimes have done since independence . That’s the reason , more than 60 % of the people are poor and cannot afford to spend more than Rs.20 a day . Budget was just to divert the attention from equally important issues, without addressing any concerns of the common man and this nation.

I must draw the attention of the powers that be, that, recently I read that Pakistan is a ‘failed state’. I must add that, India is a ‘failing state’. Let me put the points why I say this.

Every nation has three weapons ; Economic , political and military weapons, and every nation has three priorities i.e. domestic economic growth & employment , security of the nationals & healthcare , and peaceful relations with the neighbors & good relations with super powers . Let’s examine each

Economy: We are told that the economy is getting better, and that there are ‘green shoots’ because of the ‘Green shots’. I am rather surprised! Rising Sensex does not raise the GDP of the nation! I don’t think that the fundamentals have changed either in the domestic market or in the global scene in the last three months. Whilst, I believe that the current budget is based on ‘Hope’ & ‘Hype’, ‘Ifs’ & ‘Buts’ , but the realities can’t be ignored for long- we will make our condition irreversible .Oil prices have been cleverly increased before the budget. It is high time that people gave up the thought that, Indian population is a good shock-absorber with a short memory that believes in forgive & forget!!

The growth that we saw as 6.7 % in 2008 was due to the government spending and stimulus, and atleast, I cannot rejoice on that as a common man. Prices are still sky high for food items- retail inflation is around 12 %, loan rates are high and jobs are flying away. These three factors are adding to uncertainty and fear. The stimulus are like giving more drugs to a drug addict, so that he lives longer , avoids immediate pain , but weakens with every dose and time passing, and finally collapses’. Moreover, the stimulus that the government has given is in forms of tax cuts and subsidies & and not spending. I don’t understand one thing, why do we need ‘Bold’ steps in every budget despite 60+ years after the freedom? Is this not a failure of the planning commission & our British legacy systems that has lead to Adhocism? Why the hell do we not look at changing the way we envision and plan for our nation? I believe that we are still not independent in our thoughts. We are still bogged down with western concepts of growth and success!! We must see deeper in this statement. Our system is more wrong than corrupt! Inefficiency cannot tackle inefficiency!!

Exports are falling month on a month, companies are paring down the costs and people are losing jobs every day. Uncertainty and fear are the two harsh realities of the current Indian economy. I know that Dr. Manmohan ji is taking of 7.5 % growth, but has three riders; if US Economy bottoms out by September, Rains are adequate and Oil does not give a shock. I think this is a clever statement or trying to pull a fast one. If one of the three or all three goes wrong, then what is going to be growth of the Indian economy? Ideally an economist of his experience should table before the parliament the three best cases and worse case scenarios incase all goes wrong or two or just one factor fails us? We cannot be silent spectators in a time of such an unprecedented crisis. I see that global Economic intelligence; forecasting and contingency planning is clearly missing with our policy makers. We need proactive and pre-emptive policy makers! Thanks to India’s robust banking system and strong fundaments (as we hear often!) that India’s credit rating is currently one notch above junk status at BBB-.

My belief is that, India’s problems have been structural, and with Indian meteorological department predicting less than normal rains, cyclical problems will also add to the woes of the government and the vast suffering population. So India’s problems today are both structural and cyclical, all because of the misguided policies of chasing wrong targets and attacking non-existent problems. India has some ‘high propaganda’ and ‘high leakage’ schemes like the NREGA etc. So the final outcome is not as expected. Execution of such schemes benefits the ruling class and not the working class and remains such a statistics. We have seen in the last 15 days that farmers are mortgaging their lands due to delayed rains. I am afraid that, if the rains are below normal, we will start hearing about farmer’s suicides again. Economic or fiscal management is as important as good governance, which is decimating all the progress. If the measures are missing, we will be back to square one!

The government should act fast, or else, the public would conclude having voted in haste, and we will see the change in the assembly elections that are due shortly

Recent survey from National Sample Survey (NSS) shows that, 60.5 % of the population were capable of spending only Rs.20 a day

National commission on enterprises in the unorganized sector had suggested that 77 % of the total population in the 2004-5 could spend less than Rs.20 / day / person

More glaring to note from the National Sample Survey (NSS) of 2004-5 that, only 24.4 % of the rural Indians used the Public distribution system (PDS) for rice and only 11 % used for wheat! Increasing outlay will not just solve problems.

Imagine this with the following facts:
Today , Tomato costs Rs. 15 K.g , Potato Rs.10 per K.g., Onion Rs. 12 per K.g. Rice cost more than Rs. 20 per K.g , Pulses are above Rs. 40 per K.g. Ginger is Rs. 100 per K.g. Do request our P.M. that BPL (Below poverty line) should be changed as a terminology to FSTD (Families fast starving to death). BPL is a very charitable word today seeing that, majority population of this nation cannot even earn enough to eat one decent meal a day!

I have not seen the recent Economic Survey in detail, but have been following it through media and press. The above stated facts do make one shudder at the thoughts of how many people would have died of starvation by the time you finish reading this note!!!

I am yet to see our learned politicians talking about the global environment in the budget. So I must educate our politicians on that as well. In the month of May, I was in Europe and this is what I discussed with various people.

Germany’s economic output will shrink by 6 %

UK.’s economic output will shrink by 4 %

French Economy will decline by 3 %

Italian economy will decline by 3.5 %

Romania’s Economy will decline by 4 %

Latvia’s economy will shrink by 13.1 %

Slovakia’s Economy will decline by 2.6 %

Of the 27 nations in EU, only Cyprus will grow. European Union expects its recession to last till 2011 & 8.5 million Europeans will lose jobs over the next 2 years.

With unemployment hitting 10.9 % in EU & 11.5 % in Euro area in 2010, EU has revised its GDP estimates for 2010, predicting a 0.1 % drop rather than a small rise.

This data is stated by Jaquin Almunia , Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner , European Union.

Germany’s boom has been due to sales abroad. Which reached 40 % of its total output because of China & India buying heavy machinery, but when growth in China & India collapsed due to economic down turn – Germany’s exports collapsed?

Facts of the US economy need not be mentioned – in June 09, US unemployment rate moved highest in the past 25 years US has already lost 6.5 million jobs since the recent recession. We are reading how many companies are going bankrupt!!

Bank of International settlements (BIS ) States in its 79th Annual report released on 29th June 09 that, there is a significant risk that recovery in emerging market economies will be delayed . Further BIS said that, foreign reserves in the first quarter fell to 80 % in Korea and India.

Given the possibility that external shocks could persist, such depletions raise questions about the reserve adequacy. A severe economic downturn and a delayed recovery in capital inflows could produce future episodes of market instability that could lead to a much faster draining of the reserves than suggested by these indicators.

Economic growth in developing world will be 1.2 %, the world bank had said on June 22. Developing nations in eastern Europe and Central Asia will be amongst the hardest hit, the world bank has stated. The region’s economy is likely to shrink by 4.7 % this year.

The World Economy will contract 2.9 % this year, as global trade slumps 9.7 % according to the Washington based Bank.

My belief is that , though the economies may not have a free fall any further, but will deteriorate slowly for two- four quarters. Growth will start only after one year, and that too, slowly. I don’t expect miraculous growth in the next two years . Miraculous growth is nothing but the growth that was at the start of 2007. So there is enough pain for the common man for the next one to two years.

Dr.Joshi, the issue is not of growth alone, it is about uniform growth. High growth and low distribution is not the solution, neither is low growth & high distribution. We are looking at in this budget high growth and wider distribution across all segments. Budget must address this issue .The growth of 6.7 % that we see is from 20 % of the Indian population. Our policy makers are all so glued to Mumbai and Delhi that we forget smaller towns.

What to address: E.g. one of the ‘Gem’s ‘is food processing sector. Of the total agricultural produce, India just processes only 5 % annually. In contrast, countries in the South East Asia process at 60 % of their food produce. This will not only create employment, but also give more income to farmers, thereby, raising their financial status and spending capacity. Perishables would not be lost, adding to the nation’s food bank. This would also enhance India’s share in the global food trade from 1.5 % to 3 % thereby increasing the forex . India has vast natural resources, we need to use them, generate employment.

Also, that we need 92 million jobs as identified by the 11th Plan. A report from the working group on skill development and training points out that 8% growth can create employment opportunities for about just 30 million people and special employment generation programmes can add another 20 million job opportunities . We must take into account that we add around 12.8 million are added to work force every year. Need is not just of job creation but the right skill development. Over 40 % of the government expenditure on education goes towards elementary education!! Will this work to help the nation??

Dr.Joshi, you must tell Dr.Singh that he is driving his car seeing the rear view mirror of another person’s car (China). He needs to look and drive his own car, and carefully look sideways and more importantly, the road below and ahead!! Integrity & good image of the PM is not a question but competence to steer the nation is! . He might be an intelligent Professor , a honest man but not a successful Prime Minister. He has so far failed as a PM . I do not wish to comment whether he is a ‘weak PM’ or ‘Strong’ & that does not matter here. But for sure , India has become weaker under his regime in the last five years . He will not be remembered for what he did in 90’s, but how he steers 09. That is the test of his leadership. You all must realise India is a world in itself & act accordingly.

Now coming to Military: This is our weakest link ! Most of the fighter planes are ‘flying coffin’s- every fort night, we have a crash. Agni missile is a ‘paper missile’, and out of 39 squadrons, only 9 work. Our submarines are in bad shape- top defense officials know this in the heart of heart- To conceal these secrets , the parties appoint army men on diplomatic or gubernatorial assignments . No comments on the nuclear arsenals! India is not at all strong militarily . We have seen Kargil; we see deaths in Kashmir, terrorists attacking. So Military- wise, we are a failed state. It is not that we cannot attack Pakistan; we know that we cannot defeat them! That’s the reason; we only bark at Pakistan and not bite!! Had US been in place of India, Pakistan would have been sanitised years ago for its mischievous demeanor & misadventure!!

How will this government ensure the safety of Indians!!

Security of the nation- Diplomacy :

Neighbors: We are surrounded by all the neighbors who are hostile.

China is raising the issue of Arunachal Pradesh and Dalai Lama.
Sri Lanka is resolutely hostile and we have just seen the end of war against Tamil Tigers.
Pakistan , less said the better.
Burma is known to patronize ULFA etc.
Bangladesh infiltration and our issues in North east is not a hidden issue. It is believed without doubt, that the Muslims from Bangladesh have increased in Guwahati & North east to such an extent that Hindus are in minority compared to Muslims. In the next election, we will not see victory of any other than Muslims – if the issue is not tackled now!
Nepal has already expressed its discontent and accused India of meddling in its internal affairs.
America is not the same as it was before signing the nuclear deal. It is doling out aid to arm Pakistan
Russia : has also agreed to supply arms to our neighbours

Now, having cleared the air about the failure of India’s diplomacy, I have nothing more to tell. Anyone can conclude a total failure!! We have failed to build friendly relations without neighbors.

Finally, Economically, we are clueless about the solution. We are one status above junk , having a huge fiscal deficit , rupee at a new low of Rs.48 to US $, Poverty is 60.5 % of the population , We have not built any shock absorbers in our economy . Defense is doing badly, Neighbors are hostile and we are weakest , waiting only to be attacked and defeated. Our foreign policy is a total failure. Are we not a failing state? Who to blame? The government, obviously. I don’t want to shift the focus due to this budget which is nothing more than a mere ‘Eyewash’.

Dr.Joshi , please do express the common man’s dilemma & pain in these unprecedented times of ‘fear’ and ‘uncertainty’ when you speak in Lok Sabha, and do inform our leaders that , we are not at all amused by the long speeches in the budget or ‘eye wash budget’ to pacify us till the next budget. We need outcomes drawn from each investment (Which is our own money given as direct and indirect taxes ), outcomes have to be measured in a time bound manner. We don’t just need to fix the problems but also fix the accountability. We need an outcomes based budget with a plan that addresses the three issues , Youth , Economy and Security of the nation, and creates enough jobs , eliminates corruption in judiciary and creates social security and safety for all staying within the borders of the nation without any discrimination based on caste , religion or economic stature.

Hope we will not be left to believe that we wasted another five years for a promise

Waiting to hear you in parliament

As always, with best regards

A common man
Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com

Michael Jackson’s death & the Indian Economy have similarities – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted July 9, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Global recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Indian Economy Opti – ‘mystic’ about growth numbers- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Why is an economy of a billion people failing ? why are we fast becoming a junk economy ? I know it is quite good to hear 7.5 % growth estimates coming from the government, with riders that are totally justifiable for our failure to achieve 7.5 % growth or ‘cook’ the numbers to show ‘Illusionary statistic’. The future predictions of 7.5 % growth are dependent on US Economy , Oil economy & Rain Gods . Do you still believe our politicians for the growth numbers ?

Growth in 2008-09 : A large part of our 6.7 % growth in 2008-09 was nothing more than an illusion. 1.8 % out of it is accounted for by a 7 % spurt in ‘community , social and personal services’. Which is the arrears paid to 20 million government servants in 2008. If we deduct this out of the 2008-9 estimate , the actual growth was 4.8 % and not 6.7 %.

Confirming the correction of the GDP data to only the second half of 2008-09 , which is when the pay commission awards were paid out, reveals the GDP grew not by 5.8 % but only 2.2 %. This is the harsh reality. Check the fact that , agriculture grew by 1.6 % and industry, utilities & construction reported 2.4 % growth in the entire year as stated by the economic survey. Did we actually grow by 6.7 % ?

This year could be the worst for the economy. Outlook for industry is more bleak; zero growth till May 09. Agriculture is slipping due to poor show from the rain Gods . Even World Bank’s estimate for growth at 4 % looks optimistic

Now that government has to borrow about 4 lac crore to finance its largesse . If the government is borrowing 4 lac crore , what will happen to such an economy . Are we not already a bankrupt & Junk Economy ? Are we waiting for it to be rated as junk !!

No government or department talks about the ‘Job deficit ‘. Hiring Indra Nooyi or Raghuram Rajan to drive in ideas don’t work, as these people have stayed away from India for long and they themselves are in out of touch with the common man’s problems . So their solutions would all be on financial reforms, and they cannot suggest things that can salvage the common man. Till the common man does not become financially strong , Indian economy cannot take off. NAREGA is not the soultion , it is just a temporary morphine like injection to ease out pain . Indian economy will collapse like Michael Jackson, who died of drug overdose .

The status of the government is better than the citizens who cannot even borrow money to run their finances. We need a miracle to happen to save this nation .

Address to the students of ISCS- Indira Group as Chief Guest

Posted July 16, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Dear Friends,

Good morning, Congratulations and a warm welcome to Indira Group. You have embarked on an important stage of your career.

When I was invited as a Chief Guest, I had another meeting planned at Guwahati today, but I cancelled it and came here. I recollected a discussion with one of the senior most professors of Welingkar institute a few months ago.
I was looking for a good management institute for admission of one of our family friends. So I talked about this to Indira School, D.Y.Patil and Welingkar. While I was chatting with my Professor friend , he told me , Indira Group had won the maximum awards from the industry, and if I could get a seat there , nothing like it ! So friends, let me tell you that you are luckily in the management institute that is highly regarded by the industry

Now that you have a wonderful platform of ISCS, you will have the confidence of having graduated from this well known institute. Now you have to make the best out of this institute by your hard work.

I thought it would be helpful if I shared a few important points with you which will help you , based on my experience & learning right from being a research officer to being the Vice President , COO, CEO , Executive Director & Vice Chairman in different companies and across different sectors

First and foremost, what I must share, is the value of time:

Just think , at 99 degrees water is hot and at 100 degrees water is boiling, 1 degree makes the difference. In 800 m 2004 Olympic games , the margin of victory for a gold medal was .71 seconds . In Formula one racing, in last ten years, the average difference between the first and second position has been 1.54 seconds. The first prize is 1.27 (1278813) Million USD and the second prize is .621 Million (621321 USD). A difference is 657492 USD for just 1.54 Seconds, So friends, never forget that time is the most valuable asset that you have. You cannot afford to delay your decisions when you are studying or working

Time Management : What is the common thing that people like Henry Ford , Albert Einstein and Wright Brothers and all of you – 24 hours of time, and what is the difference ? How they managed their time Also, the most important thing every day is not anything else but how you handle the most important task of the day – Time Management. . I suggest that you pick the most difficult or the most time consuming task first and time management will be quite easy. Time management will help you achieve your goals much easily. If you mess up on time management, you will end up frustrating yourself. These four lines are very relevant for you to remember

He slept beneath the moon
He basked beneath the sun
He lived a life of about going to do, and
Died with having nothing done.

Knowledge Managment :Let me ask you a question: How many of you brush your teeth every day? Almost every one! How many of you brush your knowledge every day? Remember both are equally important. I would strongly recommend that you not just study your course, but also regularly update yourself on the economy & all the sectors of the economy on a regular basis and spend at least two hours a day on updating your knowledge. You must read three newspapers a day

How many of you can buy 50 management books or magazines in a year? How many of you can buy one magazine & book per year. Imagine, if you did so, you have access to 200 books & magazines to read. When you leave this institute, you can donate the same to the institute library with your name and batch on the cover page. Not only that this will enrich your batch but also the subsequent batches who join this institute. They might be thankful to you for your contribution when they read your name on the book. If this continues for the next ten years, this institute will have the best library due to an individual’s effort! On the choice of books, I must advice, you pick a wide range of topics from self management to management and beyond.

Working and networking: Networking is equally important as working. In a world connected by internet and VOIP, networking is boundary-less and free. Please keep enhancing your network and maintaining your old network of friends. It will eventually become a big asset

World Economy: Having talked to you about the values of time , knowledge management & networking , now let me update you a bit on the world economy & the industry: We are hearing on the state of the world economy that we are into a deep recession. I believe that, the world has been put on a reset button. Every recession has shifted the global supremacy of economies. The first recession shifted the power from Britain to U.S.S.R. & U.S.A. if I were right, the current recession will shift the powers to multiple economies like China, India etc. So it is a natural progression from a uni-polar world to a bi-polar world and now towards a multi polar world. So ,you will have an important role to ensure that Indian corporate world makes the best use of this God send opportunity and that, can only happen when you are prepared to make the best use of this opportunity . You all have an important role to play

Indian Economy: Two sectors have to be changed if the economy has to grow at 9 or 10 %. These are agriculture and SME sector. About 65 % of the population is engaged in agriculture & 40 % farmers are willing to give up this profession. We will have a serious economic crisis if things don’t change. For agriculture, this also presents two great opportunities – organic farming and food processing. You must consider these opportunities once you pass out from this institute. These two opportunities can add real value to the economy both in terms of domestic revival and foreign trade. SME sector contributed to about 39 % of the economic output in India, but in the developed world SME sector account for more than 90 % of the economic output. In India, SME’s are not that competitive, as we lack good managers in the SME Sector. You can contribute a lot to the SME sector to raise the GDP of the nation and contribute to the economy of this nation

Overall economic environment is very dynamic. As students of management, you must keep a watch on the sectors. SME , Agriculture, Retail, Healthcare, Real estate , Tourism, Education & travel will remain the hot sectors for the next few decades. You must add value to these sectors when you join the corporate world.
Having updated you on all these opportunities , I must also let you know two most important realities.
One, that things never come to you without efforts and you will have to work restlessly to achieve them. Most of the time you will be discouraged and turned away but never mind. Keep chasing your passion. In the end, you are bound to succeed…

Chester Carlson was turned down by all the 20 companies he approached, including GE & IBM. But Chestor gave us Xerox.

Jeff Hawkins & Donna Dubinsky invented the palm pilot, they were turned away by the VC’s who believed it was a sure fire way to poor house. In 1995, Jeff and Dona settled for USD 44 Million from U.S. Robotics

Same was with John Grisham; he was turned down by about 80 publishers only to become the best- selling author

Marconi was taken to a psychiatrist when he talked about his invention – Telephone

Let me give you examples of a few Indian’s.

Thyrocare – largest path lab in the country. The owner of this lab slept on CST, Mumbai station from August 18-22 in 1982. He went on to do PhD from BAARC. One day he realised what will happen when he retires from BAARC. He quit and started a one room lab at Byculla with three employees, one who would collect samples; other would do tests in the night and the third who would deliver the reports. All three were Dr.A.Velumani. Today, he runs a 500 cr Business

Suman Jha- He went to Russia to study M.B.B.S. Today at the age of 36, he runs a 700 million USD business that he started when he had 100 USD in his pocket. Shreya entertainment and Shreya Life Sciences are his company
So, may be that most of the time you will be discouraged or turned away. Does not mean that you give up. Remember, a setback can let you down or get you more determined. Choice will be totally yours. Second and most important thing, contended people never bring any changes, they happily adapt to the world. It is the dissatisfied, discontented & the restless people who bring about the change. You all must try to be a change agent. India is a land of billion plus people but we only have about 6 major corporate groups. There is another big question. Can we not create more?

Last question :How many of you think that you will settle down in your life in the next 10, 15 or 20 years? You can never settle down in life at any point in time. If you were ever to do that, It will be after death! Being settled is against the rule of life. Check with any doctor. What does it convey from an ECG when it is a straight line? It means the person is dead. So if the ECG is not a straight line , that is a good news . So friends living and being successful cannot be like a straight line . I was talking to my friend who is from the corporate world and known as the biggest business guru and motivational speaker of his time. He was about to venture in a new field. And I asked him, are you willing to give up your earlier venture for the sake of a new venture. He immediately said; No, I am still to settle down …………………..So live with the reality. We are never settled in life, we have to keep working & we are never settled and will never be. As you reach the horizons, the horizons will expand. Keep moving .

Always remember that life is a moving target

Please work hard, support the right , don’t compromise on the values & be assertive and the world is yours. Try to make it a little better place

So friends, it was real pleasure being with you all this morning & i wish you all the very best

Rajendra

State of the nation today- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted September 1, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Where are we heading as a nation – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Let’s examine the state of the nation after the election. It is good that the public voted out all the nuisance mongers like Lalu, Mulayam, and Mayawati & Jayalalitha. Public is growing aware and taking an active interest in the governance of the nation.

Let’s see where are we now?

Rural India

NAREGA – This is the over hyped scheme of the regime. Recently, a study revealed interesting statistics about NAREGA.
• Only 10.62 % of the total 33.89 million registered rural households in 2007-08 were provided 100 days of employment
• The national average of the number of work days per household in NAREGA was only 48 in the last fiscal year. Less than 50 % of what was targeted
• 80 % of the of the households said that they did not get the work within the stipulated 15 days time of demand for work in writing , nor were they paid any unemployment allowance
• It was found that only in 42 % of households could women share the one-third of the allocated person-days ( wage days )
• It is also doubtful if any permanent assets can be created with unskilled labour
Agriculture:

Rain gods have shattered the claims that rural India was shining that the rural economy was unaffected by the global crisis. With drought rampant in most parts of the country. It is going to spell disaster. It is really painful to see that the image of the farmer has not changed in India despite 62 years of independence. When you think about the farmer. The image that comes to mind is that of a ‘half clad, dark skinned frail old man looking at the sky covering his fore head with his hand ’.

All our leaders forgot that ‘Farmers of the nation are the fathers of the nation’

Poor planning for farmers have led to a stage that the government had to push over 7 billion dollars to rekindle the rural India.

Prices of the agricultural produce are going sky high, and the grocery items are supposed to reach a new high from the next month onwards when the rainy season is over. Adding to this, about 70 % of the population lives below the poverty line revealed a national study early 2009.

Aviation sector:

Thanks to our efficient Aviation Minister, the biggest and the only government carrier is bankrupt. All the airlines are bleeding. New airports are in bad shape, the waiting time is an average 30 minutes before landing and 20 minutes before take off. Air India burnt more than Rs.150 Crores for the waiting time in the air.

Foreign policy:

We are surrounded by hostile neighbors and all the time is spent in fire-fighting with Srilanka, Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bangaldesh and Burma. With such ‘un-cooperative’ neighbors. In addition to this, we don’t share the same relations with US & USSR (CIS). USA is openly supporting Pakistan with arms and ammunitions ,and doing a lip service to India.

With such relations, do we not conclude that the foreign policy is a total failure? Our entire diplomatic energy is wasted balancing equations of power

Sharm-Al-Sheikh was another blunder after JLN took Kashmir to United Nations. We must wait and watch as the future unfolds in the Indian Foreign diplomacy.

Defense & Internal Security

Our moon mission is a failure, our fighter planes are being called flying coffins. And there is a serious issue with attracting talent in the army.

Earlier it was Kargil, Kandahar , Kashmir and then it was terror attacks. We are still waiting for the next anniversary of attacks to repeat. We are not prepared to avert any attacks

Healthcare

Neither there is Health nor care. Swine flu is taking its toll and health minister is giving absurd statements. Millions of kids die every year due to malnutrition. 75 % of the population is anemic. The Cardiac diseases and diabetes are taking away millions of Indians away from us every year with India not having an effective coverage system.
Judiciary

With crores of cases pending in courts , anyone who says he respects judiciary is respecting the inefficient and corrupt and insulting the nation. We can certainly be forced to abide by the decisions of the courts but the question of respecting the judiciary in its current form is not acceptable
Opposition

At this point in time, Indian democracy should have has a strong opposition. Unfortunately, BJP is paying for its misdeeds and image and self projection issues of its top two leaders. It is high time; it shapes up to ensure that it plays the role of an impactful opposition party in India.

Hope that the good sense will prevail

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
office@rajendragupta.org
0922 33 44 542

USA & the New World Order – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted September 16, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Speech delivered by Rajendra Pratap Gupta at the US-ASIA Business forum at Los Angeles , USA on 12th September 2009 at the Los Angeles Convention Center , LA, USA

Global Economy – in the new world order

Good Morning ladies and Gentlemen

A very interesting session !!

Like an earth quake changes the topography , the recession changes the eco-geography ( Economic Geography ) . Every time a recession has sets in , the world is put on a reset button. We have seen in the past that the earlier recessions have changed the world order. The 20th century recession changed the world .The supremacy of the British empire ended paving the way for a bi-polar world from a uni-polar world. This recession will shift the world order again . It will now change to a multi-polar world . It is a natural progression from a uni-polar world to a bi-polar world to a multi-polar world

For more than a century since the invention of the Steam Engine, America has been a source of inspiration and awe for the world. Today , it is a source of learning and unlearning . It has shown the difference between being ‘Big’ and being ‘Great’.

Over the years , we have also seen the growing interdependence of the developed economies on the developing world.
We have seen how G-4 nations, the group of four biggest economies have, over a period of time expanded to G-5, G-8, G-14 & now G-20. After the recent crises , India, China & other developing economies have been invited to participate and play a role in revival of the Global economy. We are just seeing the economic evolution , which is similar to the Human evolution. It was earlier the survival of the biggest , then came the survival of the fittest and now will be the survival of the most agile & interdependent economies .

We have seen that the corporations that stood tall for over 150 years, collapsed in weeks last year. It had a cascading effect . Companies that were associated with such global corporations suffered huge losses. Nothing is infallible in this dynamic world. We need to have foresight , intelligence & be responsible to keep standing tall.

I see that there has been a lot of hue and cry on outsourcing, and I don’t understand how can people drive the market by such ad hoc policies ? We must not forget that outsourcing was started to create economic, internal efficiencies and customer focus , and this finally lead to Globalization. Globalization is an irreversible process . It is a fact that market conditions drive the economies today. It is more important to see the index of the stock exchange every day and not the GDP of a nation to gauge the market sentiment and the economic outlook. Today, the companies are not driven by market share but by share market . So are the economies. We must not forget that the developed economies or the world class cities & global conglomerates have been built by immigrants and locals working together . Today, this is more relevant . We have moved to an interdependent World

Out sourcing is market driven and it will always exist, where ever companies & countries want to grow .

This year, for the first time, we have seen that about 20000 of the 65000 H1B VISA’s have not been used out of the yearly quota . This signals a drastic shift . Till last year , the applications were over quota on the first few days of the opening . And there used to be a lucky draw for allocating H1B Visa to applicants in India. Suddenly , there are no takers this year. The very ‘brand America’ is hit badly.

Today, there is one world economy interlinked with three category of customers – developed , developing and under-developed countries

The developed countries have reached the peak and are saturated , and growth is going to be marginal . Investments will not be forth-coming in such a scenario and money invested might not yield good returns . The major corporations from the developed world need to support and get support from the rest of the world for future growth.

Developing countries like India & China support more than 2.4 Billion consumers . A great place !! These customers need more investment, and growth & returns would be fantastic . These countries also need to learn from the experience of the developed world , they need knowledge sharing , technology support & investment to scale up and work with the developed world

Under –developed countries; The more we invest, the more better & bigger markets we will be able to create for developed & developing countries . This is the future

Today , the mix of the world economies present a unique synergy and a tremendous opportunity to work together and progress; much more , much faster. There is no competition at all globally , we just require to understand the growth equation in the world order & invest , collaborate and scale much ahead . Horizons are expanding as we are trying to reach them. The world is not just a market where we represent either sellers or buyers , but it is a family knit more closely than ever before . Globalization is not just irreversible but is also indispensible force that drives us together , ahead . Remember , we are equity partners in the global economic progress where wars drive down our returns and growth increases our returns . We know that , today, business interests drive the political decisions . So we require a more close and a strong business relationship between the developed , developing and the under-developed economies to ensure a lasting peace and progress universally.

For more than a decade , America has been a land of opportunity for the rest of the world . Today, the rest of the world is a land of opportunity for America .

I would like to define the developed , developing and under-developed economies as the past , present and future of the new world order and without past , you cannot plan your future !

Two important points to note :

First : There is a reversal of destinations , innovation has moved out of the developed world , as innovation always follows the struggling race. Today , developing and under-developed world houses the world’s best innovative minds & the real consumers . They are the fertile economies . Let’s accept this fact and shape our vision accordingly. The destinations have reversed in the last 15 years and we need to see them as interdependent destinations

Second: You cannot give up outsourcing and still sell your products and services to the developing and under-developed countries. You need to understand that the developing economies are also the consumers. Today China might be a developing economy but also is the biggest lender to America & has 1.3 billion consumers . If China decided to en-cash all the American bonds , the American economy will come down today evening . But we understand that the valuation of dollar is what holds the value of Chinese economy’s reserves. If China decides to en-cash US securities , Dollar will fall and so both the economies will collapse simultaneously. So today , we are closely inter woven and cannot bully a nation. We are partners in progress and partners in downfall alike . Today no country can be independent in resources to meet its population’s needs without interdependence . We depend on oil from Middle East , manufacturing from China & IT & Knowledge from the eastern countries like India . Indian & Chinese economy suffered a hit due to slowing down of the US economy but do you know why Germany slowed down ? Because the Chinese and Indian companies stopped buying heavy machinery from Germany and so was the case with many such countries . It was not just the US economy driving down production , it was also the developing economies that affected the developed world. We have to understand the fact that, it is a either win –win –win or a lose-lose-lose for the interdependent world in today’s equation. The world has come close together like one family during this crisis . We need to use this as an opportunity to develop more understanding for a longer and a deeper global partnership so that we can avoid future recessions . We are all living in a fully integrated and inter-dependent world. It is like a necklace . One weak link can break the entire chain and the necklace will fall off.

Also, America needs to have a re-think on some of its strategies . It needs to invest more on development of the developing world . Just think $ 568 billion was given as aid in S. Africa for the last 42 years and more than $ 642 Billion is being spent on Iraq war . Today the world could have been a much better place & probably out of recession, had the war money gone to the development of the world’s under-developed and developing economies . These could have been the biggest customers for US companies !! We should not forget the point that the majority of the biggest corporations in the world are from America .

Globalization according to me, means a truly interdependent and an intertwined world.

So, it is clear that we live in a truly interdependent world & that we need more even distribution of opportunity and challenges all over the world , and invest more on economic opportunities than enhancing military capabilities; to share more wealth to a much larger mass of population . Thriving businesses can do that faster without much involvement from the government . The forums like US-ASIA business forums must happen more frequently to develop an understanding , partnerships and facilitate a better flow of resources , ideas , goods & services to all the three categories of customers & vice versa

I would suggest my friend Kevin Kaul to take the US- ASIA business forum to a much broader scale and help develop the understanding of interdependence of the new world order between the past , present & future i.e. developed , developing and under developed economies to bring all round progress for the whole world
Thank you and enjoy the rest of your day

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

515-450-8036 (USA)
+91-922 33 44 542 ( India )
+971-553 121829 (UAE )

Email : office@rajendragupta.org
office.rajendra@gmail.com

India needs massive healthcare reforms – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted December 4, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Global recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Dated: November 23rd, 2009 Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Dr. Manmohan Singh
Hon’ble Prime Minister
Government of India
7, Race Course, New Delhi

Shri.Ghulam Nabi Azad
Hon’ble Health Minister
Government of India
Nirman Bhavan, New Delhi -110011


Reference: Healthcare reforms – A detailed agenda for Population Health Improvement

Dear Dr.Singh & Shri Azad ji,

This needs your esteem, kind and personal attention. I am sending a detailed note on what India needs to do to build an effective healthcare system. Over the last 62 years , we have increased the life expectancy by 26 years , reduced the infant mortality and morbidity significantly, eradicated Small pox and Guinea worm and almost eradicated polio and Leprosy.

The government of India has taken up a smart fight against HIV, T.B. , Tobacco. The launch of massive programmes like NRHM & NUHM by the government & the ban on smoking in public places is a proof of the fact that, Indian government is committed to the healthcare of its population. I believe that the healthy population is a prerequisite for an economically vibrant & a healthy nation .

At this juncture, with such a proactive government, I must bring to your kind notice a detailed note on how to transform the healthcare system of the nation. To start with, healthcare has to become the priority sector for the government of India. The Indian healthcare system must have a broader scope and a bigger purpose!

Firstly, let me apprise you of the fact that, higher spending does not mean better healthcare. We have the case of America where 17 % of the GDP goes on healthcare. Still 77 % of Americans have at least one chronic disease, 1 out of 2 Americans have a chronic disease and 7/10 people die of chronic diseases. Despite such a high spending, according to WHO, US Healthcare system ranks 37th amongst nations, at par with Serbia; 31st in life expectancy and 40th in child mortality, worse than Cuba and Croatia . So we must not pursue wrong goal of just doubling the healthcare spends as a percentage of GDP. We need a system that is outcome driven and not that is expense driven !!

Even the French Healthcare system which was ranked as the best by WHO in 2000 is losing USD 28124 every minute and is expected to go bankrupt by 2019.

Taking into consideration the global examples in healthcare , where most of the healthcare systems have failed , India is fortunately better placed. As developed regions like USA & Europe are struggling to correct their system backwards, India is just starting to build its healthcare system. We must embed strong fundamentals in our healthcare system. Though India is better placed not by design but by default and faulty policies over the last six decades, we must use this opportunity to build in our indigenous healthcare system and not import failures by copying anything from abroad .

Let me draw your attention to a few important observations of mine regarding the healthcare system:

Payer model: India has the right payer model , where the user pays. This makes the user as the ‘gatekeeper’ in the healthcare system. The global experience shows that, whenever there is a blanket cover for free healthcare, it is likely to be misused, over used and prone to fraud. Global examples have proven that, whenever healthcare is free, systems collapse. So I must request the policy makers never to change this basic fundamental of the healthcare system, though you must provide free healthcare to BPL families.

Preventive care & Recession: My belief is that healthcare was also one of the main reasons why America faced recession. In 2008, U.S. employers paid an average of USD 9144 per employee for healthcare insurance. Over the last few years, increasing healthcare costs have forced American companies to ship jobs overseas as this presented significant cost savings. Imagine that a computer sold in U.S. was produced in China. So the entire process of building a computer created job and income for Chinese but it was sold in the U.S? So while U.S. kept spending on buying products, U.S. lost its earning & income creation opportunities to China. For each product U.S. citizens purchased, salaries and income moved to China for producing such products. No wonder, China became the biggest lender to America!! American recession was in the making for the last couple of years because of the healthcare costs going up.

Why healthcare costs went up in America? In 1970 preventive medicine specialists represented 2.3 % of the physician work force and by 2002, the preventive medicine specialists were down to 0.8 %. America did not take care of prevention, and today it is home to a population that is more ill than healthy and so is the economy. American economy is a mirror image of its healthcare system. U.S. spent USD 700 billion on the troubled assets relief program (TARP) & USD 568.4 billion on fighting chronic diseases in Medicare and Medicaid. India must learn from USA on the management of chronic diseases early on. We need to build a strong preventive care in the Indian healthcare system.

India is a young nation with more than 60 % of its population below 40 years in age but, in the next thirty years; we will become an aged nation. We will grow ‘Older’ before we grow ‘Wealthier’. Moreover, with the rising incidence of chronic diseases, we are heading towards a problem where even after spending 25 % of our GDP on healthcare, we will never be able to salvage our healthcare system.

It is high time we converted our slogan from Food, Clothing and Shelter to: Food, Clothing and Healthcare. Health care needs to become the fundamental right of every Indian

Disease burden in India: India has to first asses the health burden in India. The figures released by the top consulting firms are not reliable given the wide disparities. Let me give you a glimpse of the ‘potential’ disease burden in India.

A. According to WHO, India has 14 % of its population suffering from Arthritis. This takes the Arthritis patients to approximately 140 million
B. According to WHO, India has 10 % of its population suffering from Hypertension. This takes the Hypertension patients to 100 million
C. According to the International Diabetes Federation , approximately 5 % of the Indian population suffers from Diabetes i.e. 50 million
D. India has at least 40 million CVD patients
E. Cancer patients in India are about 2.5 million
F. Elderly people in India are about 150 million

So, by any conservative estimates, we have about more than 400 million patients suffering from one or more chronic disease.

ABCDE of Indian healthcare system . I coined this Acronym , where A stands for Arthritis , B – Blood Pressure , C- Cardiac diseases & Cancer, D- Diabetes , E – Epilepsy or Elderly. My belief is that the prevalence of chronic diseases is such that today every family if India has one or more members of either of ABCDE .

Due to out of pocket spending on health, about 40 million people go below the poverty line every year.

If we see the population dynamics & demographics , it calls for a serious planning and implementation on healthcare reforms so that we don’t face what America is passing through today! We need to build low cost, user friendly & accessible healthcare system so that people enter the healthcare system earlier and leave it earlier and it does not cost more!! I have changed the centuries old saying ‘Prevention is better than cure’ to ‘Prevention is better than death ™’ Since chronic diseases, if not controlled, lead to disability and finally , death

Problem of distribution: India has a serious problem with the focus & allocation of health resources ; we are quite urban centric. A survey by the Indian Medical Society had found that 75 % of the qualified consulting doctors practice in urban centers, 23 % in semi-urban areas and only 2 % in rural areas, where about 65 % of the population lives

Acute model of care: Though over the past 60 years the disease patterns have shifted from acute and infectious diseases to chronic or life style diseases, still Indian healthcare system emphasizes on acute care and medical care model. This needs an immediate correction. The problem of not adopting preventive care is that aging population requires more healthcare treatments with a lower earning and paying capacity. Earnings reduce with age but healthcare problems increase. This will put our ‘Young’ nation of today into a serious economic, social and development crises in the next 25 years. The ‘baby boomers’ of today will become ‘Patient boomers’ of tomorrow.

A study done by Kaiser Family Foundation revealed that, the healthiest 50 % of Americans account for just 3 % of the annual spending; the sickest 15 % represent nearly 75 %. This should help India understand the importance of preventive measure to keep our population healthy.

I believe that we have already been late for this generation, but we must build a robust healthcare model for the coming generation. We need to bring a change in government policies, medical curriculum, medical practice and channels of delivery of care across the healthcare spectrum. Without an integrated care system, we cannot have results, and without preventive care we cannot have an integrated healthcare system.

We must seriously consider that it might be cheaper to provide free preventive care than to absorb the high cost of chronic care. Preventive care must become the minimum standard of healthcare.

New paradigm of care: We must work towards building a strong support system for our healthcare infrastructure to build an effective healthcare system. This calls for a strong:

• Self control & Self care : Individuals must take to self care and self control and become health conscious individuals. This is where the government can play an important part and sensitize the population on health issues , so that the healthcare becomes effective
• Education system: The Prevention must move from the ‘Medical school’ to ‘Primary school’. It should be ingrained in our school text books and Preventive care is more important than the sex education for which too many efforts are being made too fast! Yoga & Meditation should be taught for at least 30 minutes / day from class 1 onwards
• Occupational health: Work place wellness is not established in India. I would expect that the proactive private sector gets active on providing preventive care to its employees at the work site

Why should a person approach the doctor directly for every small / routine issue?

For Preventive care , we must have two goals :

A. Preventive care has to be the mainstay of the stable healthcare system
B. Preventive care becomes the minimum standard of care

Government: Action points:

• The government must set up an inter-ministerial task force under the Prime Minister’s office or mandate the National Knowledge Commission to make recommendations every five years on healthcare reforms needed , based on the fast changing dynamics and demographics of the Indian population. The ministries to be included are Ministry of health & family welfare, Ministry of labour , Ministry of sports, Ministry of finance , Ministry of defense , Ministry of rural development , Ministry of child & social development ,and

Ministry of tourism .We must look at Brazil’s healthcare system where the health provisions are under the state & municipalities , but the Federal government continues to be responsible for the quality of care
• Health should be a federal subject
• Department of pharmaceuticals ( currently under the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers) must be brought under the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare
• Central Health Authority : We need a central health authority along with similar state health authorities in every state to focus on Health Risk Assessment , Healthcare forecasting, Health Awareness , Immunization , Mother & Child care , Geriatric care , Primary prevention , Occupational health , Disease management , Organ transplants , Emergency care & Palliative care
• Government must take the sole responsibility for awareness creation about wellness and diseases separately, and both should be handled by different heads with proper coordination
• India immediately needs an epidemiological survey. As of now, there is neither an epidemiological survey nor a health risk assessment index to find the actual disease burden. Without that, anything we are doing amounts to Adhocism. We need to be more scientific in whatever we do to have an outcome. The data given for various disease states are thrown by various organizations and the data is hard to believe! Health Census must be done along with the population census.
• Government must take the responsibility for mass screening and mandate the employers to do mass screenings for their employees based on the guidelines for each sector
• Government must issue industry & sector specific recommendatory daily allowance (RDA) for food intake or calorie intake , health & wellness guidelines for employers and employees. If need be, government must appoint a employee health regulator to enforce the guidelines
• All the admissions after high school should have a basic health check as a prerequisite
• People above the age group of 21 should go for a yearly basic health check up
• Marriage certificate should only be issued after a comprehensive risk assessment
• Those with BMI above 23 should be put on annual preventive check
• Those with a family history of any chronic ailment should be kept on OPC – Observatory preventive checks at an early age ( 16 years )
• Government must come out with a health status report on its national leaders and set up a separate health department for political leaders both at national & state level
• Government must focus more on Geriatric care
• Government must address the issue of mental health deficiencies & encourage TeleHealth in Psychiatry seeing the ratio between Psychiatrist and population being 1:1 Million
• Government must start ‘Day Care’ centers for minor surgeries across the nation
• There are thousands of lives lost every year in road accidents. Government must work out organ transplant centers and frame guidelines for cadaver implants.
• The government must start a 24 hour health channel.
• Local governments must start a IVR – Toll free health helpline for the local population with Frequently asked questions on health put in IVR format

Special guidelines to treat chronic diseases:

• The government must immediately start a Central Disease Registry (CDR). All the
chronic disease patients must be registered under the same by the path labs itself
• Once the person is diagnosed with a chronic disease, the entire family must undergo a health risk assessment covering basic checks like BMI, B.P., Sugar, Cholesterol etc. This will be an effective way to monitor and control the chronic disease incidence. Such families should be advised to undergo a yearly basic check to avoid chronic diseases
• Chronic diseases cannot be controlled by prescription alone. It involves a behavioral change. This calls for counseling. Counseling should be made mandatory for chronic diseases. Doctors , Pharmacists and Nurses should be trained in the management of chronic diseases
• Patient’s family must be involved in the management of chronic diseases. Chronic diseases cannot be managed alone; it needs proactive support from the family members. Guidelines should be issued for the same
• Based on the disease state , the patients must be put on the appropriate disease
management program
• The doctors practicing in the field of chronic diseases should not be allowed to practice without a counselor , dietician , Phlebotomist and a fitness trainer
• The local municipality must encourage the formation of patient groups at a local level to help in the self management through ‘role model’ approach and via experience sharing amongst patients. This can be quite effective in the management of chronic diseases
• Nurses & Pharmacists have not been effectively utilized in the management of chronic diseases. These health professionals should be effectively used. In fact, the pharmacists should become the first local touch point for health information dissemination
• Pharmacies must be mandated to provide instant checking like BMI, Sugar, and B.P., Cholesterol etc.
• Pharmacists must be mandated to counsel all chronic patients
• Government must encourage generic prescription in all government hospitals and allow patients to seek generic substitution at the pharmacies.
• All doctors must seek patients nod before prescribing products other than generics
• The government must implement Disease management in the PSU’s immediately to
study the amount of money & lives that can be saved. Also that this can lead to better
outcomes and increased productivity
• Religious leaders must be used to tackle health issues as they can prove really very
effective
• The government must ban Junk foods in schools
• Special emphasis needs to be on Geriatric care and a separate set of guidelines needs to be worked out on the same
• Government must mandate the insurance companies to pay for routine health checks and
preventive care. Home based self diagnostics should be re-imbursed under insurance
• Gram Panchayats must be starting points for information dissemination for rural India.

Primary Healthcare centers should add Telehealth to its faculties to take the health to the rural population. Building and maintaining healthcare faculties in rural India is not viable. But Telehealth is an option worth trying to provide boost to rural health

Standards & protocols in Medical Practice : Due to absence of medical establishment standards , lack of treatment guidelines and protocols ; substandard facilities are mushrooming and malpractices are leading to ‘Over Diagnosis’ and ‘Over Treatment’ The government must play an effective role for the formulation of guidelines and enforce the same effectively . Also , despite having the best of brains and facilities , we are still
using the JCI / Australian accreditation . The government must recognize only the NABH / NABL accreditation for its healthcare facilities and take it international through support and incentives .

The detailed guidelines are expected on:

• Guidelines for screening.
• Guidelines for diagnostics
• Guidelines for treatment of various disease and the line of treatment along with the diagnostic requirements
• Government must come out with grading norms for facilities based on the treatment outcomes, number of beds , clinical staff, facilities , accreditations offered , town class and treatments offered
• Government must decide the price / rate for various treatments & procedures in facilities based on the infrastructure , town class , outcomes data for treating patients & grade of the facility
• Referral protocols for higher diagnosis and treatment
• Rural health guidelines should be formulated

Financial Incentives for the health sector:

• Rapid or instant diagnostic kits should be entitled for lower taxes & duties. Ideally, it should be duty free. But we must also encourage local production
• Telemedicine or Telehealth hold a promise when it comes to healthcare delivery in more than 6.20 lac villages. Such companies should be given a tax holiday for the next 10 years
• Medical imports under PPP must be tax free
• Clinics & Hospitals in rural areas must be given a tax holiday for 10 & 20 years
• Government must give a tax holiday for 3, 5, 7 & 10 years for healthcare facilities in tier 1.2. 3.& 4 class towns
• Preventive checks should be made tax free
• Currently government gives rebate in income tax for medical insurance. The same should be given for preventive check and the amount for such checks should be Rs. 2500 per family member per year. For senior citizens, it should be Rs. 3000 per member per year. Gyms & Yoga club memberships should be included in the preventive check category

• Health professionals working in designated rural areas should be given 50 or 100 % tax free income based on the regional disparities
• Companies that do preventive checkups for employees must be entitled to a tax rebate on such expenses to an extent of 100 %
• Pharmaceutical & other companies that sponsor health checks in communities should be given 50 or 100 % tax rebate for the amount spent.

Health Minister’s Fund – (HMF). The government must create a health minister’s fund to encourage donations from individuals and corporates with 100 % tax exemptions on donations. This fund must be used for providing healthcare to BPL families

Compulsory Health Savings Account(CHSA) & Health Cess: We need to look at innovative ways to fund healthcare. Levying 1 % health cess on taxes would collect Rs.4000 crore.

The government can draft a CHSA under three classifications and people can opt under the scheme as per their entitlement. The people enroll in CHSA at an age of 25-30 years and contribute a monthly amount for 30 years. Say, for example, a category A person pays Rs. 1250 per month per family for the first 10 years, Rs. 1500 per month for the next 10 years and Rs. 2000 per month for the last 10 years. So in 30 years the family saves USD 31000 and can get free healthcare for the rest of his life. Also, if we assume that the dollar is at an exchange rate of Rs. 45 & an annual interest rate of 7 % is accrued on this ; the middle class which is assumed to be 150 million now, grows to 200 million in the next 20 years and 250 million in the next 30 years. The government will stand to collect USD 1 trillion after 10 years, USD 2 Trillion after 20 years and USD 6 Trillion after thirty years. . The money thus collected can be used to make the best of healthcare facilities.

Indigenous research: We have sent Chandrayaan to the moon and made our own sub marine. But we have not done great research in medical technology and pharmaceuticals. Technology and equipment import constitute a major cost in a healthcare facility set up cost. These costs are passed on to the patients. This can only come down if we can have our own technology. Irony is that, we export our brains and then import technology at an exorbitant cost!! We have the best institutes & best brains to train them but we are not able to retain them! The government must frame strict deterrents to avoid brain drain. Healthcare will only become affordable if the cost of set up comes down. This can happen if we have indigenous technology. Going forward, healthcare will be totally technology driven.

AYUSH Professionals: The government must integrate and effectively utilize AYUSH professionals in mainstream healthcare & rural health. This could be the best way to make use of the resources at hand.

Medical Curriculum: Far reaching changes are required in medical curriculum


• The government must not allow M.B.B.S. to do Post graduation till they spend 3 months each into rural health, telemedicine, pharmacies and Panchayat health centers.
• Private medical college students should also undergo the same internship as is for students of government medical colleges.
• Those health professionals ( doctors , nurses and pharmacists ) working in rural areas for three & five years must be given special quota / guaranteed admission in P.G. courses or given fast track promotion in government jobs
• Government must provide higher pay and perks ( including tax free income ) and more paid leaves to doctors working in rural areas
• Doctors who working in rural areas should be given loans at a cheaper rates from the ‘Central Health Fund’ to set up medical clinic / facilities

In Mexico, absence of proper planning during the 70’s lead to oversupply of physicians in the 80’s. India should avoid the same and plan carefully.

Rural health needs a special consideration. In rural India, whenever a patient is taken to the nearest urban center for treatment, at least two family members accompany him. That’s the reason why even the 20 % beds mandated free for BPL families remain unused. Government must provide for free accommodation to these two attendants of the rural population who travel to urban areas for treatment including free train & bus travel. Telemedicine should be the core to rural health model in India

New Models : The government must ideate and try new low costs model where the primary preventive care can be availed at Rs.2 per day. Imagine, if we get 5000 people to pay Rs. 2 a day , we can have Rs.3 Lac per month per facility .This can be used to have two full time doctors , two nurses , two counselors to provide basic care to the population of 5000 people round the clock. I believe these are the models to be tried and implemented

The government’s role must logically move from a provider of care to payer and a regulator. Though government must be responsible for primary care,disaster management & sudden outbreaks but it must also focus on

• Awareness and education about health & wellness for the common man
• Primary care and prevention
• Rural health
• Regulation and standardization

The government must follow the chart mentioned below when approving secondary & tertiary care facilities in any place based on the population size as the standard for population health improvement. Government must not approve the higher end facilities for a geography till the facilities are existing for the levels below ,for which the approvals are sought. The government must also encourage private players by incentivizing them for providing primary care before approving them for secondary and tertiary care

Level of care Population Size Facilities Services provided
1 1000 Telemedicine, Panchayat level dissemination of info. Basic health services must be provided
2 10,000+ PHC – Panchayat Health Center Trained Nurse Practitioner
3 50,000+ Primary Hospital with 25 beds Primary Care
4 100,000 + Secondary Care Hospital 100 beds Secondary Care
5 500,000+ Multi Specialty Care hospital 250 beds Tertiary Care
6 10,000,00+ Institute of Medical Sciences Centers of Excellence

Private Public Partnerships (PPP): I have been actively involved from the very beginning in the PPP document authored by CII. I have already written in detail about the success factors for PPP in healthcare. The government must enter into PPP only for secondary and tertiary care. There is a lack of trust, transparency, speed and continuity in the government policies. Government does not trust the private players and Vice Versa. All PPP’s must pass the test on the four parameters

• Scientific credibility
• Operational stability & scalability
• Financial feasibility
• Political viability

Medical Tourism: Medical tourism can be a big revenue earner for the Indian healthcare system. But there should be a segregation of DHSP – Domestic healthcare service providers and IHSP – International Healthcare Service providers

Government must provide land at highly subsidized rates or free, at or near the airports, for hospitals and facilities catering to medical tourism ,and take the profits as a sleeping partner

For private players entering into IHSP, for each IHSP facility they set up, they should set up three DHSP.

Government must come up with an insurance scheme for international medical tourists coming to India for medical treatments to encourage and promote medical tourism

We have the best of tertiary care in India but what we lack is the basic primary & preventive care in the country .If we don’t start healthcare with preventive care and continue with chronic care management; one day, the entire healthcare system will become over burdened, under- funded and outdated – no matter what we do !

We have to move from being a ‘Disease focused’ and a ‘Doctor centric’ system to a system that revolves around younger populations, and where nurse and a pharmacist play the role of a health coach

The government has to be careful in our healthcare capacity building. One side, we need to increase the healthcare service providers, on the other hand, we have to work to reduce the burden of ‘Killer’ diseases. A very strong primary and preventive care model needs to be embedded in the system.

Healthcare is the largest service industry in terms of revenue and the 2nd largest after education in terms of employment

‘World Class’ standards in India is not the goal, ‘India Class’ standards for the world should be our goal. We can teach the world how to run an effective healthcare system

I am quite convinced that committed leadership will take cognizance of this note and take measures to implement the suggestions after a debate with all the stake holders in the continuum of care . Should you need any assistance at my end , feel free to connect.

With best regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

CC.
Sonia Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi
Dr.Murli Mahohar Joshi
Montek Singh Ahluwalia
Shri L.K.Advani
Smt. Sushma Swaraj
Shri Dinesh Trivedi
Sitaram Yechury
Members of Parliament
Sam Pitroda
Secy , Health & Family Welfare , GOI
Dr.K.Srinath Reddy
Chief Minister’s of States
Dr.Salim Hebayeb, WHO
Gerard M La Forgia , World Bank

India’s growth questionable – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted December 4, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Global recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution

India’s questionable growth story :

While the government’s overall inflation figures remained at record lows of 0 to 1.5 %. The average wholesale price of food items had increased by a whopping 17.5 % in past one year as per the government announcement yesterday

Despite the good growth , the country’s fiscal deficit at the end of the first half of the current year ( April – September 2009 ) stood at 7.9 % of the nominal GDP compared to 4.4 % in the corresponding period last year . It is very difficult to contain the increasing deficit at budget targets . Pranab Mukherjee has estimated the full year fiscal deficit in the budget 2009 presented in July at 6.8% . A sharp pick up in the economic activity will not help bridge the gap as the tax collections remain depressed.

If we strip the government consumption , then the real growth for the rest of the economy was 4.9 % in the September quarter, at 1999-2000 constant prices. That’s lower than the 5.5. % year-on-year growth notched up during the preceeding quarter. The last instalment of the pay commission arrears has already been paid , so no further boost to government consumption is expected. What will happen to growth realising that the rain God were not approving the plight of farmers under the current government and thought it wise to boycott India !!

How will the government fund ambitious schemes ?

What is the plan to bridge the deficit ?

Is selling off or divesting PSU’s a short sighted goal ? After a few years , when the deficit grows . We will be left with nothing to sell except this nation !!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.org

Lessons to learn- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted November 29, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Economy & Recession, Global recession, Politics & Recession, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, Recession & Solution, Religion, Terror strike

Price rise & Inflation: ‘Elecflation’ –i coined this term for ‘election induced inflation’. This is a recurring phenomenon

I see a lot of hue and cry on the inflation and price rise of vegetables and pulses. While the public is worried, government seems to be doing nothing on it. Why???
Answer: Whenever there are elections, the business houses are forced to contribute to election funding or false cases built up to make money to fund the party. So how will the business houses recover the money they have spent for the elections? So very naturally, the politicians are also obliged to allow these business houses to hoard and sell at higher prices till they recover in multiples of the money paid for fighting elections. It is a simple election driven price inflation. Remember , same politicians and business houses will meet again for the next elections

I was recently addressing a gathering and i told the people that we don’t have any political parties in India. The people were quite anxious to know what made me conclude this? To which, i explained that what we have today are ‘election parties’ & not ‘Political parties’. Election parties come up with a manifesto during elections and then forget everything for another five years and spring into action again gearing for the next mandate. If we had political parties or politicians then we would have a long term vision for this great nation. Unfortunately, we don’t have politicians. A politician or a political party cannot run a nation of 1.2 billion population without an agenda for 10, 20 & 30 years. Adhocism has not taken this nation anywhere in the last 60+ years

Also, no politician or party can take credit for India’s growing middle class. What we are today is not by design but by default and fault of failed policies and politicians. Fortunately, it puts India in the right spot at the right time. But we should not brag about it but we must have a long term vision and policies and actions to shape the destiny for the nation

Just think, 1/6th of India is under naxalites, 4/6th of India is poor. So whatever you read or see as India opportunity is just representing 1/6th of India. I.e. 200 million Indians are in a position to afford what you have. This blog will only reach may be 40-50 million people. Isn’t that an irony of a nation with 1.2 billion brains? We are exporting brains and then importing technology. We are not a democracy but a pseudo-democracy for just 200 million Indians

There are clearly three segments of Indian population.
People who vote
(majority are paid or coerced to vote – these are the people who fall into 800 million people living @less than 2 $ a day)

People who make others to vote (town class or semi urban middle class or Political workers.)

People who are voted – run into a few million as elected or rejected candidates who have the best of all available and are above the law of the land)

It is a time to change …………………………..The democracy that is India is for 1/6th of the population. Remaining 5/6th is either under the slavery of naxalites or poverty.

On 25th /11 there was a function organised at the Mumbai police Gymkhana. As a trustee of the United Force of India i was asked to share my views on the Mumbai security after 26/11. I only asked one question to the journalists. If after one year of attacks our elected representatives can be manhandled in the Vidhan Sabha and our journalists can be beaten and their office vandalised. Where are we? What security are we speaking about? We are just waiting for another attack to happen and it will!!

Now coming to Dubai crises: For long, i have believed that we are chasing wrong goals as an economy. In fact, on 19th January, i wrote a letter to our Hon’ble P.M. that we should not build our economy on dollars but it should be built on agriculture and SME’s. Free dollar flow is a sign of future pain!! . See the case of India’s stock markets . The FII’s invest in it raise the index , exit and book profits . Poor Indian retail investors lose when such FII’s exit . But you cannot do anything . The big fish make money . My perception is that , this is happening with the concurrence of the people who are a party to such ‘short money making tactics’. Every politician starts as a humble farmer or a worker and then becomes a ‘uncrowned king’ with schools , charitable institutions , real estate , business ventures unheard and unimagined by people like you and me . We have seen the case of YSR’s son, Reddy brothers , Madhu Koda and the list is end less …………

Take the case of Dubai. Now people have started calling it ‘Doob Gayee’ . Dubai built their economy on dollars and we know their fate. If India does not focus on Agriculture and SME’s. We will cry with pain. I recently read Dr. Manmohan Singh statements that with strong FDI inflows, our economy is slated to grow 9 %. I sometimes, don’t understand why are we still dependent on the foreign money? This FII / FDI are like a refined and sophisticated terms for EIC – East India Company. They will take profits abroad. These instruments have only one goal – Feast on the growing middle class. Do we allow them? The day we make our ’Farmers , the father of the nation , the nation will turn into a vibrant economy’. I wish Dr.Singh to say some day that our farmers contribute to the growing GDP and SME contribute to a majority of dollar inflow .
Lastly, i must quote our Environment Minister, Mr. Jairam Ramesh – ‘If there was a noble prize for filth, India would get it hands down as there would be no competitors’. I expected our M.P. friends to seek his resignation for officially calling India a land of filth. He is a union minister and he should have abstained from making such a degrading comment on this great nation. Anything he says impacts India’s image negatively. What will people think about India when they read about this ‘noble prize’ eligibility for India? Do we expect more tourism with such statements or do we get more sanitation funds from WB / WHO etc with such irresponsible comments? Is the entire nation full of filth? Mr. Minister, please apologise for your senile statements and resign . You are getting your perks from this nation of filth .
Does it not prick your conscience to bring about a change in the nation than to complain??

Each one of you can bring about a small change in the scheme of things . Think small , aim big and act fast .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email: President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org

Plenary address at the India Health Summit 2009- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Posted November 6, 2009 by Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Categories: Uncategorized

Tags: , , ,

Plenary address at the India Health Summit 2009, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, President, DMAI & Director, DMAA- The Care Continuum Alliance, USA

Dear Friends,

This is an interesting audience which includes policy makers and those who can influence policy makers. I have a short message for you all. I feel so great about our nation. The developed world has failed in healthcare, and fortunately, in India, we are starting to build our healthcare system. This is the time when we can have the strong fundamentals ingrained in our population health improvement model

According to Kaiser Family Foundation the healthiest 50 % of Americans account for just 3 % of the annual spending; the sickest 15 % represents nearly 75 %. Half of the spending goes to those 55 and over, a third to those over 65 and over. In Europe, the chronic care accounts for 70 % of the healthcare expenses.

Today, we are the youngest nation with an average age of approximately 26.5 years, 30 years from now; we will be the oldest nation. Also, that we will become older before we become wealthier.

At present, we are not able to provide healthcare to more than 65 % of our population, and we are growing in numbers and age both. If we don’t pay attention to preventive healthcare, our health systems will soon become over burdened, under-funded and outdated as well.

This sums up clearly that we need primary preventive care as the starting point for healthcare and secondary preventive care in the continuum of care. We have the best of tertiary care in India but preventive care is missing!!
I believe that the biggest threat to our healthcare system is our generation. Our ‘lifestyle’ will lead to ‘disorders’ that will become the ‘Chronic diseases’ for us, and ‘Genetic disorders’ for our very own next generation. It is a call to action.

I must reach out to you all the come and participate in the three Global campaigns that I am starting at the Disease Management association of India

1. Red Flag campaign - If you have BMI above 23. Work Hard. Did you all ever think that having a BMI at 25 is being at borderline and being predisposed to chronic risks!! Let’s try and get it at 23. A healthier India should be our goal
2. Blue Building Campaign – We have green buildings to conserve energy. What about conserving health and becoming more employee health friendly. let’s have blue buildings, where the employers are proactive about employees health
3. Eat more, Burn more campaign. Have the RDA for each lifestyle. Live happy, live healthy. If you eat more, don’t feel guilty and regret, just you need to work out a little more and burn the extra calories. Isn’t that simple.

Thank you.